Election Day is finally here.
Our live coverage will begin at 7 p.m. at txelects.com/live. In addition to the results and analysis we normally provide, we’ve added a “scoreboard” powered by the Texas Tribune and its partner Decision Desk HQ. The scoreboard has been customized to show the races we believe are most important. Most are rated as Lean or Toss Up, plus a few Likely races of interest.
We are holding to our estimate of 12.4M registered voters casting ballots, including the 9.7M whose votes are already in, outstanding absentee ballots and voters on Election Day. That latter group of voters is estimated to be around 2.5M.
Historically, there has not been much difference in partisan lean between early voters and Election Day voters. This year, we expect early voters to be disproportionately Democratic and Democrat-leaning, and Election Day voters will be disproportionately Republican. This sets up a dynamic of Democrats holding leads early in the night and Republicans clawing back those margins as Election Day numbers are reported.
Our presidential forecast (Trump 49.9%, Biden 49.2%) and Texas House of Representatives outlook (Net gain of 10 seats for the Democrats, giving them a majority) were previously discussed. Here we pick up the remaining state-level and federal predictions.
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