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A new Quinnipiac Univ. poll finds President Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden tied, 47%-47%. Trump led, 50%-45%, in the university’s September poll.

Trump leads among men, 53%-39%, while Biden leads among women, 54%-42%. Trump leads among all Anglo voters, 61%-33%, but his margin is twice as large among men (+40) than women (+20). Biden leads among Black voters, 86%-8%, and Hispanic/Latino voters, 51%-43%. Biden leads among independents, 50%-39%.

Trump leads, 54%-39%, among voters aged 50 to 64 but just 50%-44% among voters aged 65 and older. Biden leads, 58%-37%, among voters under 35, and they are essentially tied, 49%-48%, among voters aged 35 to 49.

Importantly for interpreting Election Night results, voters casting mail-in ballots favor Biden, 63%-31%, and he is essentially tied among in-person early voters, 48%-46%. Trump leads among voters casting ballots on Election Day, 62%-32%. Overall, 82% of respondents said they would vote early in person (69%) or by mail (12%). If 18% of voters cast ballots on Election Day, then a new record low would be set, easily coming in under the previous low of 26.5% set in 2016.

On balance, voters view both candidates with roughly equal favorability. Trump’s favorability rating is 48/47, and Biden’s is 44/46. Independents are more likely to be favorably inclined toward Biden (46/41) than Trump (40/52). Compared to the university’s September poll, Biden’s net rating has improved by 9 points (He was at 41/52) while Trump’s is largely unchanged.

Voters slightly disapprove of Trump’s handling the response to the coronavirus (46/51) with a significant gender gap between men (51/45) and women (40/57). In September, voters were equally approving and disapproving of Trump’s coronavirus response (49/49).

In an interesting finding, 23% of Republicans and 59% of independents believe “Biden cares about average Americans,” while 11% of Democrats and 46% of independents believe the same about Trump.

The poll finds U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) leading Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar, 49%-43%. His lead is slightly smaller than the university’s September poll (50%-42%). Cornyn’s favorability rating is 42/30 with 26% saying they “haven’t heard enough” to have an opinion. Hegar’s rating is 33/26 with 39% having no opinion.

The poll of 1,145 likely voters was conducted by live interviewers using landline and mobile numbers. It was in the field October 16-19 and has a ±2.9% margin of error for the full sample.

Early voting continues through October 30. Through yesterday (Tuesday), around 5.4M Texans have already cast ballots in person (4.65M) or by mail (699K). Statewide turnout entered today (Tuesday) at 31.6% of registered voters.

Statewide, more Texans have cast ballots during the first eight days of early voting than any of the 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014 general elections, including the entire early voting period and Election Day. The number of early voters statewide this year already exceeds the total number of Texans who voted early or absentee in any of the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 general elections.

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While still record-setting, turnout on Tuesday showed signs of slowing down a bit. In the 15 counties with the most registered voters, just over 400K people voted in person or by mail on Tuesday, the lowest weekday figure so far. It’s still 72K more than the number of people who voted in those counties during the second Tuesday of early voting in 2016.

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Each of the 15 counties with the most registered voters is experiencing record turnout through the first eight days of early voting. The biggest percent increases over 2016 are being seen by Denton (45%), Cameron (38%), Williamson (37%), Collin (27%) and El Paso (26%) Cos. Among the 15 counties, the lowest percentage increases over 2016 are found in Tarrant (6%) and Montgomery (9%) Cos.

Around 500K Texans with no recent primary or general election history have voted so far in the state’s 30 counties with the most registered voters, according to Republican strategist Derek Ryan’s latest analysis of early voters. Bell (15.4%), Brazos (13.9%), Guadalupe (13.8%), Denton (13.7%), Cameron (13.7%) and Collin (13.5%) Cos. are experiencing the highest proportion of “new” voters among the electorate so far.

Republican (31%) and Democratic (28%) primary voters remain the largest blocs, though the Democratic share continues to fall, probably as a result of an initial surge of absentee ballots attributed to the first day of early voting. Between absentee ballots and enthusiasm, a greater proportion of Democratic primary voters have cast ballots compared to Republican primary voters. General election only voters comprise 26% of turnout so far. Historically, this bloc overtakes both partisan groups to become the largest swath of the electorate.

CD6 (Lean Republican): An internal poll released by Democratic challenger Stephen Daniel’s campaign shows him trailing U.S. Rep. Ron Wright (R-Arlington), 45%-41%. Joe Biden leads President Trump, 46%-45%, in the district. “Self-identified independents” favor Daniel, 42%-35%, and Biden, 49%-32%. The GBAO survey of 400 likely voters was in the field October 13-17 and has a ±4.9% margin of error.

Texas Presidential Polls

  • Trump 47, Biden 47 – Quinnipiac Univ. (October) – LV
  • Trump 46, Biden 44 – Data for Progress (October) – LV
  • Trump 49, Biden 47 – Morning Consult (October) – LV
  • Trump 50, Biden 45 – Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune (October) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (October) – V
  • Trump 51, Biden 44 – Crosswind (October) – LV
  • Trump 49, Biden 49 – EMC Research (October) – LV
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Data for Progress (October) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Civiqs (October) – LV
  • Trump 49, Biden 46 – UMass-Lowell (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (September) – LV
  • Trump 46, Biden 45 – Data for Progress (September) – LV
  • Trump 50, Biden 45 – Quinnipiac Univ. (September) – LV
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – NYT/Siena Coll. (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – CBS News/YouGov (September) – LV
  • Trump 46, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – Public Policy Polling (September) – V
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – DMN/UT-Tyler (September) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 45 – Data for Progress (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 44 – Tyson Group (August) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – Public Policy Polling (August) – V
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Global Strategy Group (August) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 41 – YouGov/THPF (August) – RV
  • Trump 49, Biden 43 – Trafalgar Group (August) – LV
  • Trump 47, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Morning Consult (July) – LV
  • Trump 49, Biden 45 – SPRY Strategies (July) – LV
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 45 – CBS News/YouGov (July) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 44 – Gravis/OANN (July) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July) – RV
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June) – RV
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
  • Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June) – RV
  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May) – RV
  • Trump 50, Biden 43 – Morning Consult (May) – LV
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May) – RV
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April) – V
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April) – RV
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March) – RV
  • Trump 49, Biden 45 – Marist Coll. (February) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February) – RV
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February) – RV
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February) – RV
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February) – RV
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019) – RV
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019) – RV

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls. If there is no link, then we either did not see the poll or otherwise did not have enough information to report on it. Legend: LV-Likely Voters, RV-Registered Voters, V-Voters

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC