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A new CBS News/YouGov poll shows the presidential race remaining within the margin of error and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) holding a 46%-41% lead over Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar.

President Trump leads Democratic challenger Joe Biden, 48%-46%, among “likely” voters. A whopping 96% of likely voters said their presidential choice is “very strong” (82%) or “strong – I probably won’t change” (14%). Voters were, by a similar percentage split, “very” or “somewhat” motivated to vote.

Seven in 10 respondents said Trump’s record as president (52%) or what he might do if re-elected (19%) have “the most impact” on their voting decision.

Trump leads among men, 53%-40%, while Biden leads among women, 51%-43%. Trump leads among voters aged 65 and older (60%-38%) and voters aged 45 to 64 (53%-42%). Biden leads among voters under 30 (60%-29%) and voters aged 30 to 44 (52%-38%). Trump leads among independents, 50%-36%.

Trump leads among Anglo voters, 63%-31%, including 71%-24% among Anglo voters with no college degree. He leads, 53%-40%, among Anglo voters with at least a 4-year college degree. Biden leads among Black voters, 81%-8%, and Hispanic/Latino voters, 61%-30%.

The survey of 1,161 registered voters was conducted by YouGov and was in the field September 15-18. The margin of error is ±3.5%.

SD30 special (Safe Republican): Rep. Drew Springer (R-Muenster) and his wife have quarantined for 14 days after she tested positive for COVID-19. That quarantine period extends past the September 29 special election.

Candidates’ 8-day-out reports are due tomorrow (Monday), which means they will be available online sometime Tuesday, a week before the election. For the most part, this will be voters’ first looks at the fundraising support each candidate has garnered since entering the race. Springer and Pilot Point salon owner Shelley Luther, who received a $1M loan from Midland oil executive Tim Dunn, Empower Texans PAC’s largest contributor, are expected to report having the most resources for the final sprint.

Texas Presidential Polls

  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – CBS News/YouGov (September) – LV
  • Trump 46, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – Public Policy Polling (September) – V
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – DMN/UT-Tyler (September) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 45 – Data for Progress (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 44 – Tyson Group (August) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – Public Policy Polling (August) – V
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Global Strategy Group (August) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 41 – YouGov/THPF (August) – RV
  • Trump 49, Biden 43 – Trafalgar Group (August) – LV
  • Trump 47, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Morning Consult (July) – LV
  • Trump 49, Biden 45 – SPRY Strategies (July) – LV
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 45 – CBS News/YouGov (July) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 44 – Gravis/OANN (July) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July) – RV
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June) – RV
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
  • Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June) – RV
  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May) – RV
  • Trump 50, Biden 43 – Morning Consult (May) – LV
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May) – RV
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April) – V
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April) – RV
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March) – RV
  • Trump 49, Biden 45 – Marist Coll. (February) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February) – RV
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February) – RV
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February) – RV
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February) – RV
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019) – RV
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019) – RV

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls. If there is no link, then we either did not see the poll or otherwise did not have enough information to report on it. Legend: LV-Likely Voters, RV-Registered Voters, V-Voters

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC