President Trump polls at or just over 50% and leads four prospective Democratic challengers by 3-8 percentage points according to Texas Lyceum’s 2020 statewide survey (PDF), but is within the margin of error of Bernie Sanders, who polls strongest among the four Democrats at 47%. Joe Biden is next at 46% followed by Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg at 43% each.

Trump’s net approval rating is 47/52, which suggests a small but significant number of Texans disapprove of his performance but prefer him to any Democrat. Nearly three out of five respondents said the country is “on the wrong track.” Respondents were more approving of the direction of Texas, evidenced by Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) 63/34 and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s (R) 55/39 approval ratings.

Biden (28%), Sanders (26%), Warren (13%), Michael Bloomberg (9%) and Buttigieg (6%) lead the Democratic presidential primary field with only one other candidate polling above 2%. M.J. Hegar is the only Democratic U.S. Senate candidate polling in double digits with 11%, followed by Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas) at 8%, Cristina Tzintzún Rameriz at 7%, Amanda Edwards at 6% and four candidates each at 5%: former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell (D-Houston), Michael Cooper, Victor Hugo Harris and Sema Hernandez. More than one out of every three “Democratic primary” voters either “don’t know” or chose “none of the above.”

More respondents identified themselves as Democrat (42%) than Republican (38%), which may be a function of the fact that adults under 30 comprised 24% of respondents. They are not as strongly represented in the Texas electorate, historically.

The poll of 1,200 Texas adults was conducted by phone and online in English and Spanish. It was in the field January 10-19 and has a stated margin of error of ±2.83% (higher for subsets).

HD26 open: Associated Republicans of Texas PAC endorsed Jacey Jetton to succeed the retiring Rep. Rick Miller (R-Sugar Land).

HD47: Texas Right to Life PAC endorsed Aaron Reitz for the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin).

HD76 open: Texas AFT endorsed Elisa Tamayo to succeed Rep. Cesar Blanco (D-El Paso), who is running for open SD29.

HD113: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Associated Republicans of Texas PAC endorsed Will Douglas, the Republican challenger to Rep. Rhetta Bowers (R-Rowlett). Neither candidate has primary opposition.

SEN: U.S. Sen. John Cornyn’s (R) campaign announced he raised $2.75M during the fourth quarter of 2019 and has $12.1M on hand.

CD11 open: Four former Midland mayors – Ernie Angelo, Mike Canon, Jerry Morales and Carroll Thomas – endorsed former Midland council member J. Ross Lacy to succeed the retiring U.S. Rep. Mike Conaway (R-Midland).

CD24 open: The Dallas Morning News endorsed Beth Van Duyne (R) and Kim Olson (D) in their respective primary races to succeed the retiring U.S. Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-Carrollton).

CD28: Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders endorsed primary challenger Jessica Cisneros over U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo).

CD32: Former Sen. Don Huffines (R-Dallas) endorsed Genevieve Collins for the Republican nomination to challenge U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas).

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