Texas Election Source
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Recently Posted News & Analysis
Abbott by 7 in New DMN/UTT Poll
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) maintains his single-digit – but outside the margin of error – lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke (D), according to a new Dallas Morning News/Univ. of Tyler poll.
Abbott leads O’Rourke, 46%-39%, with 13% of respondents split among Libertarian Mark Tippetts (3%), Green Party candidate Delilah Barrios (3%) and “someone else” (6%). Historically, minor party candidates combined receive 3% or less of the vote in gubernatorial contests.
The bulk of support for Tippetts, Barrios and “someone else” comes from independent voters, who otherwise favor O’Rourke, 34%-31%, over Abbott. When combined with “don’t know” (4%), “Someone else” (18%), Tippetts (5%) and Barrios (5%) combine for 35% among independent voters, more than either major party candidate.
Subscribers can read the rest of this report.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Kansas Voters Reject Abortion Ban
By a 59%-41% margin, voters in Kansas rejected a proposed constitutional amendment that effectively would have banned abortion procedures in the state. More than 900K Kansans cast ballots, representing 47% of registered voters.
Donald Trump carried the state, 56%-42%, in 2020. “No” over-performed Joe Biden by at least 16 points in each of the state’s four congressional districts, and “No” carried each district.
Based on unofficial results, approximately 255K votes cast in the referendum came from Democratic primary voters and another roughly 465K came from Republican voters. While it is likely that some registered Democrats and Republicans skipped their primary but voted in the referendum, we will assume for simplicity that the remaining 190K voters were unaffiliated (Kansas has closed primaries.). The number of Democratic primary voters plus non-primary voters sums to 444K, roughly 90K short of the number of “No” votes in the referendum. This implies roughly 1 in 5 Republican primary voters also voted “No.”
Final Filing Period Begins and Other Brief News for July 27
Candidates and officeholders who are currently running unopposed, including those who faced no primary opposition, could yet end up with a general election opponent. The filing period has begun for certified write-in candidates, the final group of potential candidates for the general election.
Under state law, election officials are required to count votes cast for certified write-in candidates, but they may ignore votes cast for other names written by voters.
The filing deadline is August 22.
LTGOV (Lean D): Democratic challenger Mike Collier’s campaign released a new ad, “Fix the Damn Grid,” which directs Texans to call Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s (R) office “when your lights go out.”
Galveston Co.: Sen. Larry Taylor (R-Friendswood) withdrew as a potential replacement candidate for county commissioner prior to the District 4 executive committee meeting. The committee selected Robin Armstrong to replace former Co. Comm. Ken Clark (R) on the general election ballot. Clark passed away in May after winning the Republican nomination for another term. Armstrong was previously appointed as the interim commissioner by County Judge Mark Henry (R). Armstrong is unopposed for a full term.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Nearly Half of O’Rourke’s Contribution Total Came from Out of State
Nearly half of Democratic gubernatorial challenger Beto O’Rourke’s record-setting contribution total came from donors outside Texas, according to our cursory analysis of his more than 100,000-page July semiannual report. Texans supplied 52.7% of his contribution total from February 20 through June 30. Donors from California (11.4%), New York (8.6%), Colorado (3.0%) and Massachusetts (2.5%) led out-of-state contributions, which totaled just over $13M.
Six out of every seven dollars contributed to Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) campaign during the period came from Texans. He raised $21.3M from Texas donors, representing 86% of his overall total. California (3.4%), Florida (1.5%) and Oklahoma (1.3%) residents led his out-of-state contributions. Abbott out-raised O’Rourke, $21.3M to $14.5M, among Texans.
O’Rourke’s report itemized more than 508K contributions, about 200K more than Abbott’s report. The massive report was not available online until today (Tues.) as the campaign worked with the Texas Ethics Commission to get the report on its website. According to J.R. Johnson, the agency’s general counsel, the report was submitted on time by the campaign but “the size of the report is pushing the limits of our technology.”
O’Rourke’s campaign previously reported his contribution total, but it had not indicated how much cash the campaign had on hand.
Subscribers can read the rest of this report.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
O’Rourke, Abbott, Patrick Set Records in Latest Fundraising Period
The governor’s race (Likely R) is taking the oxygen out of the room, accounting for 65 cents out of every dollar contributed to a state candidate on the November ballot during the most recent fundraising period.
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke (D) posted the two biggest single-period fundraising totals in state history for a state race. O’Rourke out-raised Abbott, $27.6M to $24.9M, for the period covered by July semiannual reports. For both candidates, the period ran February 20 through June 30. Because O’Rourke’s report was not yet available online, we are relying on the numbers reported by his campaign on Friday for purposes of this report.
Only one other candidate for state office has ever reported more than $20M in contributions in a single fundraising period. In 2002, Tony Sanchez, the self-funded Democratic challenger facing then Gov. Rick Perry (R), reported $22.2M in contributions in his 30-day-out report before the general election and $20.1M in his January semiannual report filed after the election. However, Sanchez’s contribution total from donors other than himself was miniscule.
According to their respective campaigns, O’Rourke had more than 500K individual contributors, and Abbott had more than 110K.
State candidates’ July semiannual reports were due Friday, and most became available online over the weekend. The reporting period ended June 30 for all candidates, but it began at different times depending on whether a candidate was unopposed in the primary (January 1), opposed in the primary (February 20), opposed in a runoff (May 15) or involved in a special election (varies).
Subscribers can read the rest of this report.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
Early Campaign Finance Results and Other News for July 14
July semiannual and July quarterly campaign finance reports are due tomorrow (Fri.) for state and federal candidates and officeholders, respectively. The federal reports will become available in real time on Friday, and the state reports are expected to become available online on Saturday. We will update our Crib Sheets over the weekend.
The beginning of the fundraising period depends on whether the candidate had a contested primary or participated in the runoff. The period ended June 30 for all candidates.
Democratic Convention: The party’s state convention kicked off today (Thurs.) at the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center in Dallas.
Harris County: County Judge Lina Hidalgo (D) leads Republican challenger Alexandra del Moral Mealer, 48%-47%, among likely voters, according to a new Univ. of Houston/Hobby School of Public Affairs poll.
Subscribers can read the rest of this report.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
U of H Poll: ‘Almost Certain’ Voters Favor Abbott by 8
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 5 points among “likely voters,” growing to 8 points among “almost certain voters,” according to a new Univ. of Houston/Hobby School of Public Affairs poll. Abbott leads O’Rourke, 49%-44%, among “likely voters,” the measuring stick used by most pollsters.
Abbott’s lead increases to 51%-43% among “almost certain voters,” which are respondents who indicated they were “almost certain” to vote in November. The findings continue to demonstrate a long-standing tendency for “almost certain” voters to be slightly more Republican on balance than “likely voters,” which tend to be more Republican on balance than registered voters.
Those high polling numbers also confirm that most voters have already made up their minds. The poll found just one in 10 registered voters and one in 20 likely and “almost certain” voters remain undecided. Just 5% of Abbott and 8% of O’Rourke’s supporters “might change their mind” between now and November.
A 51%-43% outcome in the governor’s race would closely mirror the outcomes of the statewide contests in 2020, which were clustered around 53%-44%, aside from the presidential contest, which was 52%-46%.
Subscribers can read the rest of this report.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
2022 Runoff Election
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Jeff Blaylock
Publisher
Jeff is a political junkie, longtime public policy wonk and former Texas Legislature staffer who has worked political campaigns in Texas and several other states, ranging from school boards to legislators to governors to referenda. He is a public and government affairs consultant based in Austin, Texas, who offers his keen insights about Lone Star State politics as Texas Election Source.
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