TEXAS ELECTION SOURCE

The authoritative source on Lone Star State elections, voter trends & political analysis.
Texas Election Source logo

Be the Smartest Person in Your Political Crowd

The Best Election Analysis in Texas is Less Than $20 a Month

Texas Election Source provides frequent, insightful updates to our subscribers about the state of elections in Texas. We track more than 600 candidates for statewide office, Congress, the Texas Legislature and the State Board of Education. We also follow special elections, important local elections and constitutional amendment elections. If you’re interested in Texas politics, then let Texas Election Source be your guide to the ballot box.

For less than $20 a month, you’ll gain unique insight and expertise on Texas politics that will make you a hero at your next political gathering, client meeting or election watch party.

Recently Posted News & Analysis

Endorsements and Other Election News for October 18

Early Voting begins Monday for the November 6 general and constitutional amendment election.

SD8 open: Jackie Schlegel, executive director of Texans for Vaccine Choice, endorsed Phillip Huffines.

SD19: The federal criminal fraud trial of Sen. Carlos Uresti (D-San Antonio) has been postponed until January 4 after the judge decided that a co-defendant’s counsel was not prepared for trial.

HD52 open: Hispanic Republicans of Texas endorsed Cynthia Flores for the seat being vacated by Rep. Larry Gonzales (R-Round Rock).

Subscribers can read several local election news items in this report.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Challengers Show Fundraising Prowess But Primaries Loom Large

Federal officeholders and candidates were required to file quarterly campaign finance reports by last Sunday. Those reports detail contributions received and expenditures made during the third quarter, but this report focuses on the total amount of contributions the candidates have raised during the first three quarters of 2017.

See our Federal Crib Sheet for the latest numbers.

Twelve Democratic candidates seeking to take on Republican U.S. House incumbents have raised at least $100K so far this year, indicating higher interest in their campaigns – and in defeating incumbents – than Texas’s congressional delegation has seen in recent election cycles. During the entire two-year 2016 election cycle, just six challengers received at least $100K in contributions.

Democratic challengers running for the U.S. House of Representatives have collectively raised $4.9M so far in 2017. This figure is already $1.9M more than the entire slate of Democratic challengers raised during the entire 2015-16 election cycle and already $4.0M more when one excludes former U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Alpine), who alone accounted for more than 70% of all funds raised by the party’s candidates that cycle.

These figures do not include U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), who is challenging U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R). O’Rourke’s campaign said it raised $1.7M during the third quarter, bringing his year-to-date total to $4.2M (His report is not currently available online.). He out-raised the Cruz re-election campaign committee, $1.7M to $1.3M, during the quarter.

Combined, O’Rourke and the House Democratic candidates have already raised nearly $6.6M, well more than double the amount the slate of candidates – including those defeated in primaries – raised during all eight quarters of 2015-16.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

Frequent Updates & Analyses

Our subscribers have access to our complete reports and analyses, including our archives, that cover the gamut from breaking campaign news to thoughtful exploration of the deeper trends in Texas. Links to our latest reports and updates are emailed straight to our subscribers’ inboxes.

Updated Candidate Lists & Campaign Finances

Our subscribers have access to our Crib Sheets: complete, up-to-date and accurate lists of candidates running for Congress, statewide office and the Legislature and more. See their latest campaign finance figures, past election results and other helpful information.

}

Real-time Election Returns & Analysis

On Election Nights, our subscribers receive relevant results fast, often before they appear on publicly available outlets, and get our analysis of trends and their implications while votes are still being counted. Know who’s winning before everyone else!

Election News for October 17

Redistricting: Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a brief with the U.S. Supreme Court asking it to hear “and correct a U.S. District Court ruling from August that invalidated two of the state’s 36 congressional districts.” The high court stayed that ruling last month. “The lower court’s decision to invalidate parts of the maps it drew and adopted is inexplicable and indefensible,” Paxton said in a statement. “We’re eager for the high court to take up the case.”

Rep. Ron Reynolds

Rep. Ron Reynolds

HD27: Rep. Ron Reynolds (D-Missouri City) announced he would seek re-election. Reynolds won a fourth term in 2016 while appealing misdemeanor convictions of barratry, seeking to reinstate his suspended law license and filing for personal bankruptcy. He was forced into a Democratic primary runoff after a four-way primary but prevailed, becoming just the fifth incumbent legislator to win out of the last 25 forced into runoffs since 1996. Reynolds has not filed a campaign finance report since February 2016 and is currently listed on the Texas Ethics Commission’s delinquent filers page as owing more than $48K in fines for failure to file those reports and another $1.5K for failure to file required personal financial statements. In February, the Office of the Attorney General sued Reynolds over his delinquencies. At the time, Reynolds said he had established a payment plan and was “almost finished” with his campaign finance reports. As far as we can tell, no other candidates have taken a formal step toward running against him.

Williamson Co.: Russ Boles, a Round Rock commercial broker and director of the Brazos River Authority, announced he would seek the Republican nomination for county commission P4. Incumbent Larry Madsen, who was appointed following the death of Ron Morrison, is not seeking a full term. Boles has been endorsed by Sen. Charles Schwertner (R-Georgetown) and U.S. Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock).

Heath: Mayor Brian Berry announced he would not seek re-election.

Sugar Land: Mayor Joe Zimmerman announced he would seek re-election.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Candidate News for October 16

HD8: Rep. Byron Cook (R-Corsicana) told the Texas Tribune that he had not decided whether he would seek re-election, and he gave no timetable for his decision. His 2016 primary opponent, Corsicana businessman Thomas McNutt, has announced he is running for the seat.

HD100: Rep. Eric Johnson (D-Dallas) announced he would seek re-election.

CD20: Former U.S. Rep. Quico Canseco (R-San Antonio) re-established his campaign committee for a potential challenge of U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio). Canseco represented CD23 from 2011-2013 before being defeated by then state Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Alpine) in the 2012 general election. Canseco sought a rematch in 2014 but lost the Republican primary to Will Hurd (R-San Antonio), who went on to defeat Gallego in the 2014 and 2016 general elections. Unlike CD23, CD20 is a strongly Democratic district.

CD22: Sugar Land resident James Green formed a campaign committee for a potential primary challenge of U.S. Rep. Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land).

Campaign Finance: We’re still going through this weekend’s federal campaign finance reports, and some are still not available online. We are in the process of updating our Federal Crib Sheet and expect to have complete results later this week.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Candidate News for October 15

Campaign Finance: Today is the deadline for federal officeholders and candidates to file quarterly campaign finance reports if required. We will explore the results of those reports during the week.

ED7: Katy researcher and tutor Eliz Markowitz established a campaign committee for a potential run for the seat being vacated by board member David Bradley (R-Beaumont).

HD18: Liberty attorney and Texas Right to Life political director Emily Kobodeaux Cook established a campaign committee for a potential primary challenge of Rep. Ernest Bailes (R-Shepherd).

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Having accurate and up-to-date information and analyses can be a game changer. Texas Election Source is a one stop shop for comprehensive election information and analyses that we rely on during election season and beyond. I recommend it to anyone in our industry.

Jay Howard

Partner, HillCo Partners

Texas Election Source is my go-to resource for all election returns. Jeff’s experience in the legislative process and his knowledge of candidates make his analyses invaluable to legislative professionals as well as outside observers.

Monty Wynn

Assistant Director of Legislative Services, Texas Municipal League

Gonzalez Gets Primary Challenger and Other News for October 12

SC2: 334th District Judge Steven Kirkland announced he would run as a Democrat for the Supreme Court seat currently held by Justice Don Willett (R), who has been nominated to the Fifth U.S. Court of Appeals by President Trump. Willett is expected to seek re-election while his nomination is pending in the U.S. Senate. Kirkland was elected to JD215 in 2008 but lost his re-election bid in the 2012 Democratic primary (39%). He was elected to JD334 in 2016 (52%). He seeks to become the first openly gay judge elected to the state’s highest court.

HD75: Ysleta del Sur Pueblo tribal empowerment director MarySue Louisa Femath formed a campaign committee and announced she would challenge Rep. Mary Gonzalez (D-Clint) in the Democratic primary.

HD113: Sunnyvale Mayor Jim Phaup formed a campaign committee and confirmed via a Tweet that he would seek the seat being vacated by Rep. Cindy Burkett (R-Sunnyvale). Phaup has served as mayor since 2011 after previously serving as mayor from 1999-2009. He was unopposed for re-election earlier this year. Prior to becoming mayor, he was a Sunnyvale ISD trustee from 1996-1999. Garland attorney Jonathan Boos, who unsuccessfully challenged Burkett in the 2016 Republican primary, said in a Facebook post that he welcomed Phaup’s entry into the race. “I look forward to a robust debate on the issues,” including the vote for House speaker, Boos wrote.

SEN: North Richland Hills religious television executive Bruce Jacobson said he was “prayerfully considering” challenging U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in the Republican primary, reported the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Bud Kennedy.

Burnet Co.: Four-term County Comm. Russell Graeter announced he would not seek re-election. At least three Republicans have said they would run for his P2 seat: Damon Beierle, Ryan Rowney and Tom Stephens.

Round Rock: Cam Scott, vice president of the Round Rock Transportation and Economic Development Board, announced he would run for the council seat being vacated by Frank Leffingwell, who is running for Williamson County Judge.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Election and Candidate News for October 11

HD6: Former Rep. Ted Kamel (R-Tyler) has re-established his campaign committee, which has not been active since 1998, for a potential challenge of Rep. Matt Schaefer (R-Tyler). Kamel served four terms before losing the 1998 Republican primary to Leo Berman (R-Tyler), 54%-46%.

HD46: Prosecutors said they would drop one of the 13 felony counts against Rep. Dawnna Dukes (D-Austin) because of an error in reading data from her mobile phone activity, reported the Austin American-Statesman’s Ryan Autullo. All other felony charges are currently on hold and Dukes’s trial has been delayed so that further investigation could be completed. Prosecutors face an October 30 deadline to tell the court whether they intend to continue with the case. Dukes has maintained her innocence of all charges.

HD63: Rep. Tan Parker (R-Flower Mound) announced he would seek re-election.

HD78: Rep. Joe Moody (D-El Paso) announced he would seek re-election.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

Monthly

$19.99/mo
  • Full access to our site for an individual
  • Our news & analysis delivered via email
  • Updated candidate lists
  • Live election night returns
  • Subscription renews automatically each month

Group

Varies/yr
  • Full access to our site for an individual
  • Our news & analysis delivered via email
  • Updated candidate lists
  • Live election night returns
  • Contact us for a custom subscription plan

Voter ID Hearing Request Denied and Other Election News for October 10

Voter ID: A divided Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals denied plaintiffs’ request to hear an initial appeal of the recent Voter ID ruling en banc. Instead, the appeal will be heard initially by a three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit, which is customary. Plaintiffs had hoped to expedite the process by taking the case straight to the full Fifth Circuit. Ten of the justices voted to deny the request, and four were in favor of taking on the case. In September, a divided Fifth Circuit panel stayed a lower court ruling preventing the state from implementing its revised Voter ID law. Absent further judicial action, that law will be in effect for this year’s general election, and it remains to be seen whether the appeal will have run its course prior to the 2018 primary elections. Whichever party loses with the three-judge panel will almost certainly seek an en banc hearing.

Rep. Kyle Kacal

Rep. Kyle
Kacal

HD12: Rep. Kyle Kacal (R-College Station) announced he would seek re-election.

CD27: Corpus Christi resident Eric Holguin formed a campaign committee for a potential challenge of U.S. Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) as a Democrat. Holguin, who most recently served as the Manhattan Borough liaison for New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer, ran unsuccessfully for city council as a college student.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Candidate Filings and Announcements for October 9

GOV: Former Balch Springs Mayor Cedrick David Sr. announced he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Gov. Greg Abbott (R). Dallas businessman Jeffrey Payne announced his candidacy this weekend (We previously reported his entry into the race.). At least four other Democrats have taken a formal step toward challenging Abbott: Austin Democratic activist Garry Brown, Houston electronics businessman Joe Mumbach, Houston resident and former HD149 candidate Demetria Smith and San Antonio hospice chaplain and former congressional candidate Tom Wakely.

HD88: Rep. Ken King (R-Canadian) announced he would seek re-election.

Subscribers can read about announcements in SD5, HD62, HD77 and the State Board of Education. Subscriptions cost less than $20 a month.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Election News for October 8

Registration Deadline: Tuesday is the last day to register for the November 7 general and constitutional amendment election.

LTGOV: Rockwall public relations executive and former council member Scott Milder established a campaign committee for a potential primary challenge of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R). Milder was first elected to council P5 in 2013 and re-elected in 2015. He lost his bid for a third term in May to Rockwall chamber president Dana Macalik, 43%-35%.

ED2: Harlingen business consultant Eric Garza established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of board member Ruben Cortez (D-Brownsville), likely as a Republican. Garza is not Cameron Co. District Clerk Eric Garza, who we believe is seeking re-election.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report, which includes several local election news items.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Election News for October 5

Correction: In yesterday’s report, we erroneously identified the Williamson County Judge as former Rep. Dan Gattis (R-Georgetown). Judge Dan A. Gattis is of course the father of former Rep. Gattis. We regret the error.

AG: The office of Kaufman Co. District Attorney Erleigh Wiley (R) is investigating whether Attorney General Ken Paxton committed a crime when he accepted $100K from the head of a company under investigation for defrauding the state and federal government, reported the Dallas Morning News’s Lauren McGaughy and others. Preferred Imaging LLC CEO James Webb contributed $100K to Paxton’s legal defense in 2015. A year later, Preferred Imaging agreed to settle a Medicaid and Medicare fraud investigation for $3.5M. Federal authorities led the investigation, according to a spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney’s office quoted in the story. “The role of the Texas state attorney general’s office, in the investigation and settlement, was very minimal,” she said. A Paxton spokesperson is quoted in the article as saying that Paxton’s personal financial statement “fully complies with Texas ethics law and has been thoroughly vetted by legal counsel who are ethics experts.”

SD2: The Texas Assoc. of Business PAC endorsed Rep. Cindy Burkett (R-Sunnyvale), who is challenging U.S. Sen. Bob Hall (R-Edgewood).

HD85: Rosenberg resident and Democratic precinct chair Jennifer Cantu established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Rep. Phil Stephenson (R-Wharton).

Lubbock Co.: P2 County Comm. Mark Heinrich announced he would seek re-election. He was first elected in 2006 and has been re-elected twice. He already has a primary challenger in Slaton business owner Jason Corley, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination for open CD19 in 2016 (3%). Nick Harpster, a Lubbock college instructor, is running as a Democrat.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Paddie Gets Primary Opponent and Other Candidate Announcements for October 4

HD9: Marshall commercial lender and former council member Garrett Boersma established a campaign committee for a potential primary challenge of Rep. Chris Paddie (R-Marshall). Boersma was elected to the council in 2012 and re-elected in 2014. He did not seek re-election in 2016. Boersma has contributed more than $1K to Rep. Matt Schaefer (R-Tyler) and also contributed to former Rep. David Simpson (R-Longview) and then-Rep. Bryan Hughes (R-Mineola). Meanwhile, Paddie announced he would seek re-election.

HD12: Waco law firm assistant Chris Miller established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Rep. Kyle Kacal (R-College Station) as a Democrat.

HD107: Dallas resident Joe Ruzicka established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Rep. Victoria Neave (D-Dallas).

See our 2018 Challengers page for all 304 challengers and open-seat candidates who we confirm have taken a formal step toward running for state and federal office from Texas in 2018. Also, check out our redesigned Crib Sheets.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report, which includes new about seven additional candidate announcements.

Subscribers have complete access to earlier posts and all archives.

Jeff Blaylock

Jeff Blaylock

Publisher

Jeff is a political junkie, longtime public policy wonk and former Texas Legislature staffer who has worked political campaigns in Texas and several other states, ranging from school boards to legislators to governors to referenda. He is a public and government affairs consultant based in Austin, Texas, who offers his keen insights about Lone Star State politics as Texas Election Source.

More about Jeff

2018 Primary

Day(s)

:

Hour(s)

:

Minute(s)

:

Second(s)

Your account

Recent Tweets

Dates of Interest

  1. Early Voting Begins

    October 23
  2. Early Voting Ends

    November 3
  3. Uniform Election Day

    November 7 @ 7:00 am - 7:00 pm
  4. Candidate Filing Begins

    November 11
  5. Candidate Filing Ends

    December 11 @ 6:00 pm

View Posts by Category

Archives