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Texas Election Source provides frequent, insightful updates to our subscribers about the state of elections in Texas. We track more than 600 candidates for statewide office, Congress, the Texas Legislature and the State Board of Education. We also follow special elections, important local elections and constitutional amendment elections. If you’re interested in Texas politics, then let Texas Election Source be your guide to the ballot box.

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Recently Posted News & Analysis

Walle to Seek Re-election and Other Candidate News for Thanksgiving

Filing for a place on the 2018 continues until 6 p.m. local time on December 11. Please see our Crib Sheets for candidates’ filing status. Many party offices have limited hours, or are closed entirely, for the Thanksgiving weekend.

Rep. Armando Walle

Rep. Armando Walle

HD140: Rep. Armando Walle (D-Houston) announced he would seek re-election and not run for the open CD29 seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Gene Green (D-Houston), for which he previously announced his candidacy. Walle was a one-time aide to Green.

HD29: Pearland Navy veteran James Presley established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Rep. Ed Thompson (R-Pearland) as a Libertarian.

HD45: San Marcos attorney Amy Akers established a campaign committee for a potential run for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jason Isaac (R-Dripping Springs) as a Republican. She is on the boards of the Edwards Aquifer Authority and the Pedernales Electric Cooperative.

HD65: Plano business developer Kevin Simmons filed to challenge Rep. Ron Simmons (R-Lewisville) in the Republican primary. According to his campaign’s Facebook page, Kevin Simmons is running as a moderate Republican.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Candidate Filing and Endorsement News for November 21

Filing for a place on the 2018 continues until 6 p.m. local time on December 11. Please see our Crib Sheets for candidates’ filing status. Many party offices have limited hours, or are closed entirely, for the Thanksgiving weekend.

GOV: Houston council member Dwight Boykins said in a statement that he is considering running against Gov. Greg Abbott (R) as a Democrat. He was first elected to the council in 2013. Meanwhile, Flower Mound resident Patrick “Not” Smith established a campaign committee for the race. A manifesto posted to his campaign’s web site indicates his primary policy goal is the elimination of state government. It is unclear if he is running as a Libertarian or independent candidate.

SD8 open: The Texas Home School Coalition endorsed Angela Paxton.

HD8 open: Streetman business developer and college instructor Linda Timmerman established a campaign committee for a potential run for the seat being vacated by Rep. Byron Cook (R-Corsicana) as a Republican. We previously reported she was considering the race.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2017 Texas Election Source

Frequent Updates & Analyses

Our subscribers have access to our complete reports and analyses, including our archives, that cover the gamut from breaking campaign news to thoughtful exploration of the deeper trends in Texas. Links to our latest reports and updates are emailed straight to our subscribers’ inboxes.

Updated Candidate Lists & Campaign Finances

Our subscribers have access to our Crib Sheets: complete, up-to-date and accurate lists of candidates running for Congress, statewide office and the Legislature and more. See their latest campaign finance figures, past election results and other helpful information.

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On Election Nights, our subscribers receive relevant results fast, often before they appear on publicly available outlets, and get our analysis of trends and their implications while votes are still being counted. Know who’s winning before everyone else!

Candidate News for November 20

Filing for a place on the 2018 continues until 6 p.m. local time on December 11. Please see our Crib Sheets for candidates’ filing status.

HD30: Rep. Geanie Morrison (R-Victoria) announced she would seek election.

Lisa Luby Ryan

Lisa Luby
Ryan

Rep. Jason Villalba

Rep. Jason
Villalba

HD114: Dallas boutique owner Lisa Luby Ryan announced she would challenge Rep. Jason Villalba (R-Dallas) in the Republican primary. We previously reported that she formed a campaign committee for the race.

ED11: Educator Feyi Obamehinti filed to challenge board member Pat Hardy (R-Fort Worth) in the Republican primary.

CD2 open: Houston Republican activist and donor Kathaleen Wall established a campaign committee for a potential run for the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Ted Poe (R-Humble). Since 2008, Wall has contributed more than $1.5M to state Republican candidates, groups and PACs including:

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

TMF Schedules Announcement and Other Candidate News for November 19

Filing for a place on the 2018 continues until 6 p.m. local time on December 11. Please see our Crib Sheets for candidates’ filing status.

SD9: Fort Worth educator Gwenn Burud established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Sen. Kelly Hancock (R-North Richland Hills) as a Democrat.

HD41: McAllen educator Michael Pinkard Jr. filed to challenge Rep. Bobby Guerra (D-Mission) in the Democratic primary. According to his Twitter bio, Pinkard was considering a race for Congress as of August, which is his most recent tweeting activity.

Trey Martinez Fischer

Trey Martinez Fischer

Rep. Diana Arevalo

Rep. Diana
Arévalo

HD116: Former Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer (D-San Antonio) will make a “special announcement” on December 2, nine days before the filing deadline. Martinez Fischer is rumored to be considering running for his old seat, which would set up a primary race against his successor, Rep. Diana Arévalo (D-San Antonio). In the 2016 Democratic primary, Martinez Fischer endorsed Martin Golando, his former chief of staff. Arévalo won the three-way race without a runoff, taking 53% of the vote. Martinez Fischer could also announce different campaign plans, and it is possible that his announcement could have nothing to do with the 2018 election.

HD121 open: San Antonio attorney Marc Kalman Whyte established a campaign committee for a potential run for the seat being vacated by Speaker Joe Straus (R-San Antonio), likely as a Republican. He was appointed to the Port of San Antonio board in March.

CD10: Katy resident Tami Walker established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) as a Democrat.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

CD7: Cook Moves Culberson’s District to ‘Toss Up’

National pundit Charlie Cook has moved the seat held by U.S. Rep. John Culberson (R-Houston) to toss-up from leans Republican, citing his relatively weaker financial condition and the swing from Romney +21 to Clinton +1 in four years. CD7 was one of seven districts nationally, and the only one in Texas, to shift toward Democrats, further bolstering the party’s chances of retaking the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018.

U.S. Rep. John Culberson

U.S. Rep. John Culberson

We still consider the district to lean Republican. Statewide Republican candidates not named Donald Trump carried the district by an average of 14 points, and Culberson defeated Houston attorney James Cargas by 12 points. Culberson received 56% of the vote, which was higher than all but one of the statewide Republican candidates.

However, the district is within reach of the eventual Democratic nominee if the 2018 election resembles this year’s Virginia Assembly elections, in which several dozen seats shifted toward Democratic candidates by 10 or more points.

Culberson has faced Cargas each of the last three cycles. Culberson defeated Cargas, 61%-36% in 2012, 63%-35% in 2014 and 56%-44% last year. Cargas raised $77K, $74K and $68K, respectively, for those campaigns. The field of potential 2018 challengers includes several candidates who have already raised considerably more.

Subscribers can read the rest of this analysis.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

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Jay Howard

Partner, HillCo Partners

Texas Election Source is my go-to resource for all election returns. Jeff’s experience in the legislative process and his knowledge of candidates make his analyses invaluable to legislative professionals as well as outside observers.

Monty Wynn

Assistant Director of Legislative Services, Texas Municipal League

Candidate Filing and Endorsement News for November 17

Filing for a place on the 2018 continues until 6 p.m. local time on December 11. Please see our Crib Sheets for candidates’ filing status.

SD8 open: Texas Values Action endorsed Angela Paxton.

Shannon McClendon

Shannon McClendon

Sen. Donna Campbell

Sen. Donna Campbell

SD25: Dripping Springs attorney and five-time gubernatorial appointee Shannon McClendon announced she would challenge Sen. Donna Campbell (R-New Braunfels) in the Republican primary. We previously reported she had established a campaign committee but did not indicate which office she would seek. Former Gov. Rick Perry (R) appointed McClendon to the Texas Board of Professional Engineers, the Texas Appraisers Licensing and Certification Board and the Texas Board of Speech-Language Pathology and Audiology.

Campbell defeated a pair of challengers, former Houston council member Elisa Chan and former Bexar Co. Comm. Mike Novak, outright in the 2014 Republican primary. She ousted longtime Sen. Jeff Wentworth (R-San Antonio) in the 2012 Republican primary runoff following a three-way primary that included former Railroad Comm. Elizabeth Ames Jones (R).

HD36: McAllen insurance agent and 2016 Democratic primary challenger Abraham Padron has re-established his campaign committee, indicating he may seek a rematch against Rep. Sergio Muñoz Jr. (D-Edinburg). Padron raised more than $300K and spent nearly $400K for the 2016 primary, which he lost to Muñoz, 60%-40%.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report, which includes candidate filings for HD53, HD106, HD117, SEN, CD5 and CD18.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

State Candidate and Endorsement News for November 16

Filing for a place on the 2018 continues until 6 p.m. local time on December 11. Please see our Crib Sheets for candidates’ filing status.

Bo French

Bo
French

Rep. Charlie Geren

Rep. Charlie Geren

HD99: Fort Worth security solutions businessman and 2016 primary challenger Bo French announced he would seek a rematch against Rep. Charlie Geren (R-Fort Worth), who defeated French, 58%-42%. Their primary race was one of the most expensive in the state. Geren out-raised French, $1.3M to $546K, and outspent him, $1.7M to $580K.

HD138: Houston consultant Jenifer Rene Pool filed in the Democratic primary to challenge Rep. Dwayne Bohac (R-Houston). She ran unsuccessfully for Harris Co. Commissioner P3 in 2016 (42%) and for at-large positions on the Houston council in 2015 (9%), 2013 (17%) and 2011 (7%). Her 2016 Democratic primary win is believed to be the first for a transgender candidate in Texas.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

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Federal Candidate News for November 16

SEN: North Richland Hills television executive Bruce Jacobson Jr. announced he would challenge U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in the primary. We previously reported that he was “prayerfully considering” the race.

CD2 open: Houston businessman David Balat filed in the Republican primary for the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Ted Poe (R-Humble). Balat had been a candidate in CD7 but switched to this race today.

Tim Westley

Tim
Westley

U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez

U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez

CD15: Selma pastor Tim Westley filed for a rematch of the 2016 general election against U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), who defeated Westley, 57%-38%. Westley won the 2016 Republican primary runoff over former Rio Grande City Mayor Ruben Villarreal, 52%-48%, despite being outspent more than 6-to-1.

CD16 open: El Paso hotelier and gubernatorial appointee Alia Garcia-Ureste established a campaign committee for a potential run for the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) as a Republican. Former Gov. Rick Perry appointed Garcia-Ureste to the Texas Holocaust and Genocide Commission in 2014, and Gov. Greg Abbott reappointed her in 2016.

CD18: Houston counselor Richard Johnson filed to challenge U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) in the Democratic primary. Johnson was chief of staff to Rep. Jarvis Johnson (D-Houston) during the 2017 legislative session. Richard Johnson ran unsuccessfully for Harris Co. Dept. of Education trustee in 2012 as a Republican (37%) and included former Rep. Debbie Riddle (R-Spring) and Steven Hotze, head of Conservative Republicans of Texas, among his endorsers. For this race against Jackson Lee, Johnson touted the endorsement of boxing legend George Foreman.

CD21 open: Boerne medical supplier Matt McCall, who unsuccessfully challenged U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith in the 2014 (34%) and 2016 (29%) Republican primaries, filed for the seat Smith is vacating. Meanwhile, Austin educator and author Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla established a campaign committee for a potential run for CD21 as an independent.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Election News for November 15

Filing for a place on the 2018 continues until 6 p.m. local time on December 11. Please see our Crib Sheets for candidates’ filing status.

SD8 open: Concerned Women for America’s Legislative Action Committee and the Collin Co. Deputies Assoc. endorsed Angela Paxton.

HD132: Katy author and marketing manager Gina Calanni established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Rep. Mike Schofield (R-Katy) as a Democrat.

Randy Bates

Randy
Bates

Rep. Jarvis Johnson

Rep. Jarvis Johnson

HD139: Houston law professor Randy Bates Jr. filed to challenge Rep. Jarvis Johnson (D-Houston) in the Democratic primary. Bates finished third in the 2016 Democratic primary for what was then an open seat (25%) and backed out of a later special election for the unexpired term. He enters the race with more cash on hand, at least as of June 30, than the incumbent.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

State and Local Candidate News for November 14

Filing for a place on the 2018 continues until 6 p.m. local time on December 11. Please see our Crib Sheets for candidates’ filing status.

GOV: Houston resident Khis DeJean formed a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Gov. Greg Abbott (R). She campaigned for governor of Hawai’i as an independent in 2014 but was disqualified because of that state’s requirement that the governor and lieutenant governor be elected from the same political party. Based on that race, we expect she will run as an independent.

Comptroller Glenn Hegar

Comptroller Glenn Hegar

COMP: Comptroller Glenn Hegar (R) announced he would seek re-election.

HD33: Frisco resident Laura Gunn formed a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Rep. Justin Holland (R-Heath). We were unable to determine her occupation and political affiliation conclusively.

HD82: Rep. Tom Craddick (R-Midland), dean of the Texas House, filed for re-election for what would be a 26th term. His first term began in 1969.

HD115: Annie’s List endorsed challenger Julie Johnson for the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Matt Rinaldi (R-Irving).

HD121 open: San Antonio resident Celina Montoya and San Antonio political consultant and former council member Carlton Soules formed campaign committees for a potential run for the seat being vacated by Speaker Joe Straus (R-San Antonio). We previously reported that Soules had announced for the race and will run as a Republican. Montoya appears to be running as a Democrat.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

Congressional Candidate News for November 14

CD2 open: Kingwood property management executive Rick Walker established a campaign committee for a possible race for the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Ted Poe (R-Humble) as a Republican. Meanwhile, Waverly, N.Y., caterer Mike Palmer established a campaign committee for the race.

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher

U.S. Rep. John Culberson

U.S. Rep. John Culberson

CD7: Emily’s List endorsed Lizzie Pannill Fletcher in the Democratic primary. Meanwhile, a poll conducted for Patriot Majority – a liberal dark money group – shows U.S. Rep. John Culberson (R-Houston) trailing a generic Democratic opponent by 10 points. The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling, but no other information about the poll was provided. Culberson won re-election in 2016 with 56% of the vote, and Republicans had a 17,534-vote advantage in straight-party voting.

CD16 open: El Paso college professor Jerome Tilghman filed as a Democrat for the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke. Tilghman received 3% of the vote in the five-way 2012 primary O’Rourke won outright with 50% of the vote, ousting longtime U.S. Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso), who received 44%.

CD21 open: Following an “intensive exploratory effort,” former Olmos Park council member Jeff Judson said he would not seek the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio). “Although I am confident we could win the CD21 race,” Judson said in a statement, “Holding office in Washington, D.C., was not the best decision for our family right now.” His statement did not address whether Judson is still considering running for open HD121. He unsuccessfully challenged Speaker Joe Straus (R-San Antonio) in the 2016 Republican primary.

CD29 open: We cover candidate announcements here.

CD32: A poll conducted for the national group Patriot Majority shows U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Dallas) trailing a generic Democratic opponent by 5 points. The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling, but no other information about the poll was provided. Sessions did not face a Democratic opponent in 2016. Any Democratic opponent then would have faced a 12,579-vote disadvantage in straight-party voting.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

TAB Scorecard Presents Alternative View of Legislators’ Performance

The Texas Assoc. of Business released its scorecard of the 85th Legislature (PDF), grading House members for their votes on 17 bills and senators for their votes on 15 bills. The group rated 10 representatives at 90% or better and another 65 representatives scored at least 80%. Twelve senators scored at least 80% but none were rated at 90% or better.

The top rankings went to a combination of Republicans and Democrats. Rep. Oscar Longoria (D-Mission) was the only legislator to score a perfect 100%. The top eight House Republicans are, or are expected to be, targeted by movement conservative groups for their alignment with Speaker Straus or their more moderate voting record. They are Reps. Cindy Burkett (R-Sunnyvale), Sarah Davis (R-Houston), Gary Elkins (R-Houston), Dan Huberty (R-Humble), Linda Koop (R-Dallas), Hugh Shine (R-Temple), Jason Villalba (R-Dallas) and Paul Workman (R-Austin).

The group rated members of the House Freedom Caucus below many Democrats.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2017 Texas Election Source LLC

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Jeff Blaylock

Jeff Blaylock

Publisher

Jeff is a political junkie, longtime public policy wonk and former Texas Legislature staffer who has worked political campaigns in Texas and several other states, ranging from school boards to legislators to governors to referenda. He is a public and government affairs consultant based in Austin, Texas, who offers his keen insights about Lone Star State politics as Texas Election Source.

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  1. Candidate Filing Ends

    December 11 @ 6:00 pm
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