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Texas Election Source provides frequent, insightful updates to our subscribers about the state of elections in Texas. We track more than 600 candidates for statewide office, Congress and the Texas Legislature. We also follow special elections, important local elections and constitutional amendment elections. If you’re interested in Texas politics, then let Texas Election Source be your guide to the ballot box.

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Recently Posted News & Analysis

Trump Endorses Paxton, Rallies for Wright on Election Eve

Former President Trump endorsed Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) for re-election. In a statement, Trump said Paxton “has been bravely on the front line in the fight for Texas, and America, against the vicious and very dangerous Radical Left Democrats, and the foolish and unsuspecting RINOs that are destroying our Country.” Paxton tweeted that he was “honored to receive the endorsement.”

Land Comm. George P. Bush (R) was also vying for Trump’s endorsement. In a tweet, Bush said, “Texans deserve a candidate without a laundry list of existing and potential criminal indictments.”

Trump’s endorsement nearly fell on the sixth anniversary of day Paxton was indicted on felony securities fraud charges. Paxton, who has maintained his innocence throughout the legal process, has yet to stand trial. A similar federal case was dismissed twice.

CD6 special: Tomorrow (Tuesday) is Election Day. Our live coverage will begin at 7 p.m. CT.

Former President Trump held a tele-rally for Susan Wright (R) this evening (Monday), the eve of the special runoff election against state Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Waxahachie). Trump has also recorded a robocall supporting Wright. Additionally, the Make America Great Again Action PAC made a $100K ad buy supporting Wright, its first political expenditure since it was launched four months ago.

AGRIC: Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC endorsed Rep. James White (R-Hillister) over incumbent Comm. Sid Miller (R). White is the second primary challenger to an incumbent statewide elected official the PAC has endorsed. The PAC previously endorsed former Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman (R) over Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R).

HD34: Former Nueces Co. Commissioner and Corpus Christi council member Carolyn Vaughn established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Rep. Abel Herrero (D-Corpus Christi) as a Republican. Vaughn was first elected to the council in 2014 and was re-elected in 2016. She was appointed to the Commissioners Court in 2018 and was elected to a full term that year. She resigned in 2020 to run for mayor of Corpus Christi, finishing third with 15% of the vote.

HD108: Dallas attorney Alexandra Guio established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Rep. Morgan Meyer (R-Dallas) as a Democrat.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

Early Voting Ending in CD6 Runoff and Other News for July 22

CD6 special: Early voting concludes tomorrow (Friday) for Tuesday’s special runoff election.

In Tarrant Co., in-person turnout rose again today (Thursday), bringing the four-day total of in-person and absentee voters to nearly 10K (2.8% of registered voters). In Ellis Co., 200 more people voted in person today than yesterday. Through four days, just over 4,500 people have voted in person or by mail (3.8% of registered voters). In Navarro Co., turnout is likely over 1K voters so far – it was 820 as of the end of yesterday – which would be about 3.5% of registered voters there. District-wide, more than 15K votes have already been cast, which is slightly more than the two candidates received in early voting for the May 1 special election.

The Susan Wright (R) campaign released the results of an internal poll (PDF) her leading Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Waxahachie), 44%-34%, with 12% undecided (and 10% unaccounted for in these results). Wright’s lead is barely outside the poll’s ±4.9% margin of error. It’s also smaller than her lead in a June poll conducted by the same firm, which found her leading, 49%-34%.

The poll memo notes that Wright’s lead expands to 54%-33% among “those who rate their enthusiasm in voting an 8-10.” Crosstabs were not provided. The poll of 400 “likely” runoff voters who voted in the May 1 special election was conducted via landline and mobile numbers and was in the field July 19-21.

GOV: U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) endorsed primary challenger Don Huffines (R), who chaired Paul’s 2016 presidential campaign in Texas. Paul campaigned with Huffines in 2014 when he was challenging then-Sen. John Carona (R-Dallas) in the Republican primary.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

TLR Backs Buckingham and Other News for July 21

CD6 special: Early voting continues through Friday for the July 27 special runoff election. In Tarrant Co., in-person voting again ticked upward to just over 1,800 votes cast, bringing the three-day total of in-person and absentee voters to more than 7K (2.1% of registered voters). In-person turnout in Ellis Co. was the same as yesterday (Tuesday). The three-day total of in-person and absentee voters there rose to more than 3,300 (2.8% of registered voters). Figures from Navarro Co. were not available.

Former President Trump reiterated his endorsement of Susan Wright (R).

LAND open: Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC endorsed Sen. Dawn Buckingham (R-Lakeway) to succeed Comm. George P. Bush (R), who is running for AG.

HD114 open: Dallas attorney and Democratic precinct chair Elizabeth Ginsberg announced her candidacy to succeed the retiring Rep. John Turner (D-Dallas).

CD10: Manor Mayor Larry Wallace Jr. announced he would run for Congress as a Democrat. Manor is currently within CD10, but that may change after redistricting.

Under the current districts, Wallace would be challenging U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin). The retired Army veteran is the first Black mayor in the city’s history.

‘Forensic Audit’ Bill: Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) tweeted “there is no reason to do an audit” of the 2020 presidential election in Texas. “Because there are so many questions about this one [election] – maybe even in Texas, we should do the audit.”

House Bill 241 by Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) would require the appointment of “an independent third party to conduct a forensic audit” – which the bill does not define – of the 2020 general election results in the 13 counties with a population of 415K or more. President Joe Biden won those counties collectively by 939K votes over President Trump. The “audit” would not examine the 241 counties Trump won collectively by 1.57M votes.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

Beckley Announces Congressional Candidacy and Other News for July 20

Rep. Michelle Beckley (D-Carrollton) announced she would challenge U.S. Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving). Her campaign launch video centers around her participation in the current House Democrats’ quorum break.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfqdccrrZ4o

Beckley is serving her second term in the House. She is the second major Democrat to enter the race, joining Carrollton tax attorney Derrik Gay. Carrollton resident David Walsh has also established a campaign committee to seek the Democratic nomination.

CD6 special: Early voting continues through Friday for the July 27 special runoff election. In-person early voting ticked upward in Tarrant Co., bringing the two-day total of in-person and absentee voters to nearly 5,500 (1.6% of registered voters). In-person voting also increased in Ellis Co., putting two-day total of in-person and absentee voters to just over 2,400 (2% of registered voters). Totals for Navarro Co. were not available.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

Early Voting Underway for CD6 Runoff

CD6 special: Early voting began today (Monday) and runs through Friday for the July 27 special runoff election. In Tarrant Co., nearly 3,700 people have voted early in person or by mail, comprising 1.1% of registered voters in the Tarrant Co. portion of the district. Around 1,300 mail ballots have not yet been returned. In Ellis Co., almost 1,500 people have voted early in person or by mail, which is 1.2% of registered voters in the county. Figures for Navarro Co. were not available.

Former U.S. Rep. Joe Barton (R-Ennis) and the Dallas Morning News endorsed Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Waxahachie) in the special runoff election.

GOV: Rep. Kyle Biedermann (R-Fredericksburg) endorsed challenger Allen West in the Republican primary over Gov. Greg Abbott (R).

HD19 open: Silsbee business owner and Silsbee ISD board president Janis Holt established a campaign committee for a potential run for the seat being vacated by Rep. James White (R-Hillister). Gov. Greg Abbott (R) appointed her to the State Commission on Judicial Conduct in 2019, and she is a member of the State Republican Executive Committee.

HD112: Rep. Angie Chen Button (R-Garland) announced she would seek re-election.

Tarrant Democrats: Euless scientist Allison Campolo was elected chair of the Tarrant Co. Democratic Party, filling the unexpired term of Deborah Peoples, who stepped down to run unsuccessfully for mayor of Fort Worth. Campolo unsuccessfully sought the 2018 Democratic nomination for SD10 to Beverly Powell, who defeated then-Sen. Konni Burton (R-Colleyville) in the general election.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

State Officials, Legislators Raise $36M in 10 Days

Statewide and legislative elected officials and candidates on the ballot in 2022 raised $42.9M, almost all of which was raised in the last 10 days of June. Collectively, they reported having more than $175M on hand. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) combined accounted for 55% of all contributions received ($23.7M) and 45% of all cash on hand ($79.2M). Looking only at incumbent legislators and state officials, regardless of their ballot status, the 10-day fundraising total exceeded $36M.

Our Crib Sheets have been updated with the latest results.

Statewide Results

GOV: Abbott out-raised former Sen. Don Huffines (R-Dallas), $18.7M to $4.1M, and the incumbent reported having $55.6M on hand between his campaign and candidate/officeholder (COH) accounts. Abbott transferred nearly $2.2M to his campaign account from his COH account, which we netted out of his contribution and expenditure totals from the combined accounts (He had already raised those dollars and did not actually spend them.).

Abbott’s largest contributors over the last 10 days of June included:

  • $1M each from Houston construction executive James Pitcock Jr., Doss rancher Michael Porter, Dallas investor Kenny Troutt and Dallas energy executive Kelcy Warren

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

Crenshaw, Cruz Top Texas Delegation in 2Q Fundraising

The Texas congressional delegation and announced candidates raised more than $18M during the second quarter of 2021 and reported having more than $38M on hand. July quarterly reports were due today for all federal officeholders and candidates. Our federal Crib Sheet has been updated with the latest results.

U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston) led all Texans on the ballot in 2022 with just under $3M in contributions, including transfers from authorized committees. His $3.9M on hand is second only to U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett’s (D-Austin) $5.3M. Other highlights include:

  • In CD3, U.S. Rep. Van Taylor (R-Plano) raised $581K and has $909K on hand.
  • In CD6, state Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Waxahachie) out-raised Susan Wright, $1.2M to $451K, and outspent her, $1.1M to $336K, between April 12 and June 30 – the period covered by their pre-runoff reports. Over the special election cycle, Ellzey has out-raised Wright by nearly $1M.
  • In CD7, U.S. Rep Lizzie Fletcher (R-Houston) raised $557K and has $1.1M on hand.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

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Jeff Blaylock

Jeff Blaylock

Publisher

Jeff is a political junkie, longtime public policy wonk and former Texas Legislature staffer who has worked political campaigns in Texas and several other states, ranging from school boards to legislators to governors to referenda. He is a public and government affairs consultant based in Austin, Texas, who offers his keen insights about Lone Star State politics as Texas Election Source.

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