Texas Election Source
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Having accurate and up-to-date information and analyses can be a game changer. Texas Election Source is a one stop shop for comprehensive election information and analyses that we rely on during election season and beyond. I recommend it to anyone in our industry.
Texas Election Source is my go-to resource for all election returns. Jeff’s experience in the legislative process and his knowledge of candidates make his analyses invaluable to legislative professionals as well as outside observers.
Recently Posted News & Analysis
Judge Revives Straight-party Voting and Other News for September 25
Single-punch, straight-party voting is back … for now.
With 17 days to go before voters will begin going to the polls (assuming that lawsuit fails), a federal judge has issued a preliminary injunction against enforcing a state law, enacted in 2017, that eliminated the ability to vote for all candidates of a party with a single mark, punch or other action.
“Administering in-person voting the same way it has been administered for almost 100 years is not about a mere convenience to voters,” wrote U.S. District Judge Marina Garcia Marmolejo. “It is about running an efficient electoral process that guarantees Texans a more effective opportunity to cast a ballot in a time where any additional time spent in line endangers the safety of voters, poll workers and others not at the polls.”
Subscribers can read the rest of this report.
©2020 Texas Election Source LLC
Endorsement, Ad and Indictment News for September 24
SD30 special (Safe Republican): Early voting ends tomorrow (Friday) for the September 29 special election. Through yesterday (Wednesday), nearly 34K people have voted early in person or by mail.
RRC open (Lean Republican): Democratic nominee Chrysta Castañeda’s campaign released a new ad, “Wrong,” criticizing Republican nominee Jim Wright on flaring and fines.
HD45 (Lean Democratic): Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC endorsed Republican challenger Carrie Isaac over Rep. Erin Zwiener (D-Driftwood).
Subscribers can read the rest of this report.
©2020 Texas Election Source LLC
Trump, Cornyn Lead in Pair of New Polls
A pair of new polls shows President Trump leading Democratic challenger Joe Biden by 3 and 5 points. The New York Times/Siena Coll. poll (PDF) finds Trump leading Biden, 46%-43%. The latest Quinnipiac Univ. poll (PDF) shows Trump leading Biden, 50%-45%. This represents a 6-point shift toward Trump from Quinnipiac’s July poll, which found Biden leading Trump, 45%-44%.
In the U.S. Senate race, NYT/Siena finds U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) leading Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar, 43%-37%. Quinnipiac finds Cornyn leading Hegar, 50%-42%.
Both polls found most voters have already made up their minds about their presidential choices. NYT/Siena found more than nine out of 10 respondents said they would “definitely vote” for their favored candidate. Only 9% of respondents said they “could change” their mind. Of Quinnipiac poll respondents who favored a candidate, 94% said their “mind [was] made up” and only 5% said they “might change” their mind.
Demographic splits (NYT/Siena, Quinnipiac):
- Men: Trump 52%-36%, Trump 55%-41%
- Women: Biden 49%-41%, Biden 50%-46%
Subscribers can read the rest of this report.
©2020 Texas Election Source LLC
New Ads and a New Effort to Nix Early Voting Extension
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SD30 special (safe Republican): Early voting continues through Friday for the September 29 special election. Through yesterday (Tuesday), just under 29K people have voted in person or by mail.
HD67 (Toss Up): Democratic challenger Lorenzo Sanchez’s campaign released a new ad, “Fair Shot,” focusing on public education.
HD113 (Lean Democratic): The campaign of Republican challenger Will Douglas released a new ad, “Texas Together,” focusing on COVID-19 recovery.
The Dallas Morning News endorsed Rep. Rhetta Bowers (D-Rowlett).
Subscribers can read the rest of this report.
©2020 Texas Election Source LLC
Springer, Luther Far Ahead in Campaign Finance Reports
SD30 special (Safe Republican): The six candidates running to fill Sen. Pat Fallon’s (R-Prosper) unexpired term collectively raised $770K and spent $1.4M since July 1. Candidates’ 8-day-out reports were due yesterday (Monday) and became available online today.
Rep. Drew Springer (R-Muenster) led the field with $560K in contributions, followed by Pilot Point salon owner Shelley Luther’s $136K in contributions and Denton Mayor Chris Watts’s $60K. Luther narrowly outspent Springer, $646K to $605K, fueled by a previously acknowledged $1M loan from Midland oil and gas executive Tim Dunn. Luther has a $551K to $192K advantage in cash on hand with a week to go, putting her into a fairly strong starting position for a potential runoff. Watts reported having $40K on hand. The other three candidates collectively reported having $13K on hand.
Springer’s top contributors included energy executive Javaid Anwar ($100K), Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC ($30K), Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND ($30K), distributor John Nau ($25K) and energy executive Ray Hunt ($15K).
Subscribers can read the rest of this report.
©2020 Texas Election Source LLC
Ad and Endorsement News for September 21
SD30 special (Solid Republican): Early voting continues through Friday for the September 29 special election. Through yesterday (Sunday), more than 20K people have voted early in person or by mail.
Collin County Judge Chris Hill (R) endorsed Shelley Luther.
Candidates’ 8-day-out campaign finance reports were due today (Monday). Those reports should be available online tomorrow (Tuesday), and we will discuss those results then.
HD128 (Solid Republican): The Houston Chronicle endorsed Democratic challenger Mary Williams over Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park).
HD133 (Likely Republican): The Houston Chronicle endorsed Democratic challenger Sandra Moore over Rep. Jim Murphy (R-Houston).
CD7 (Lean Democratic): Houston council member Mike Knox endorsed Republican challenger Wesley Hunt.
CD23 open (Lean Democratic): The Gina Ortiz Jones (D) campaign released a new ad, “Protecting,” focused on safety.
CD25 (Lean Republican): The campaign of Democratic challenger Julie Oliver released a new ad, “Brack,” focusing on pre-existing conditions.
©2020 Texas Election Source LLC
CBS News/YouGov Poll: Trump by 2, Cornyn by 5
A new CBS News/YouGov poll shows the presidential race remaining within the margin of error and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) holding a 46%-41% lead over Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar.
President Trump leads Democratic challenger Joe Biden, 48%-46%, among “likely” voters. A whopping 96% of likely voters said their presidential choice is “very strong” (82%) or “strong – I probably won’t change” (14%). Voters were, by a similar percentage split, “very” or “somewhat” motivated to vote.
Seven in 10 respondents said Trump’s record as president (52%) or what he might do if re-elected (19%) have “the most impact” on their voting decision.
Subscribers can read the rest of this report.
Texas Presidential Polls
- Trump 48, Biden 46 – CBS News/YouGov (September) – LV
- Trump 46, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (September) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 47 – Public Policy Polling (September) – V
- Trump 48, Biden 46 – DMN/UT-Tyler (September) – LV
- Biden 48, Trump 45 – Data for Progress (September) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 47 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
- Biden 48, Trump 47 – Public Policy Polling (August) – V
- Biden 47, Trump 45 – Global Strategy Group (August) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 41 – YouGov/THPF (August) – RV
- Trump 49, Biden 43 – Trafalgar Group (August) – LV
- Trump 47, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
- Biden 47, Trump 45 – Morning Consult (July) – LV
- Trump 49, Biden 45 – SPRY Strategies (July) – LV
- Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July) – RV
- Trump 46, Biden 45 – CBS News/YouGov (July) – RV
- Trump 46, Biden 44 – Gravis/OANN (July) – LV
- Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July) – RV
- Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June) – RV
- Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
- Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
- Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June) – RV
- Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May) – RV
- Trump 50, Biden 43 – Morning Consult (May) – LV
- Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May) – RV
- Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April) – V
- Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April) – RV
- Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March) – RV
- Trump 49, Biden 45 – Marist Coll. (February) – RV
- Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February) – RV
- Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February) – RV
- Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February) – RV
- Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February) – RV
- Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019) – RV
- Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019) – RV
- Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019) – RV
Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls. If there is no link, then we either did not see the poll or otherwise did not have enough information to report on it. Legend: LV-Likely Voters, RV-Registered Voters, V-Voters
©2020 Texas Election Source LLC
2020 General Election
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Jeff Blaylock
Publisher
Jeff is a political junkie, longtime public policy wonk and former Texas Legislature staffer who has worked political campaigns in Texas and several other states, ranging from school boards to legislators to governors to referenda. He is a public and government affairs consultant based in Austin, Texas, who offers his keen insights about Lone Star State politics as Texas Election Source.
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