Texas Election Source

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Texas Election Source provides frequent, insightful updates to our subscribers about the state of elections in Texas. We track more than 600 candidates for statewide office, Congress and the Texas Legislature. We also follow special elections, important local elections and constitutional amendment elections. If you’re interested in Texas politics, then let Texas Election Source be your guide to the ballot box.

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Recently Posted News & Analysis

Pape In, Ray Out and Other News for December 3

Filing for partisan nomination or an independent candidacy for the 2022 general election continues through December 13.

SD8 (Likely R): Plano ophthalmologist Matt Rostami established a campaign committee for a potential primary challenge of Sen. Angela Paxton (R-McKinney).

SD31 open (Safe R): Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC endorsed Kevin Sparks (R).

HD17 open (Safe R): Bastrop County Judge Paul Pape (R) announced he would seek the seat being vacated by Rep. John Cyrier (R-Lockhart). He has been in his current office since 2012. If elected, he would become the first person from Bastrop Co. to represent Bastrop Co. in either chamber of the Legislature since former Rep. Hershel Carroll Sherrill’s (D-McDade) lone term ended in 1959.

HD23 open (Likely R): Former State Board of Education member Terri Wilson announced she would run as a Republican for the seat being vacated by Rep. Mayes Middleton (R-Wallisville). She was first elected to the state board in 2002 and was re-elected twice. In 2016, she considered but ultimately dropped challenging then-Rep. Debbie Riddle (R-Tomball). – 32045

HD31 (Likely R): Texas Right to Life PAC endorsed Rep. Ryan Guillen (R-Rio Grande City).

HD91 (Likely R): Texans for Lawsuit Reform endorsed Rep. Stephanie Klick (R-Fort Worth).

HD138 (Likely R): Former Jersey City Mayor Justin Ray announced he would not run for a House seat in 2022. In 2020, Ray lost to Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D-Houston) by just 300 votes in HD135, and Ray was planning on a rematch against him in HD135 (Likely D). Redistricting placed Jersey Village within HD138, which is held by Rep. Lacey Hull (R-Houston). “Our campaign has never been a vanity project to primary sitting members of our own party,” Ray said in a statement. He said he “look[s] forward to serving our community and the great state of Texas in a future capacity.”

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

Candidate Announcement, Filing and Endorsement News for December 2

Filing for partisan nomination or an independent candidacy for the 2022 general election continues through December 13.

SD11 open (Likely R): Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC endorsed Rep. Mayes Middleton (R-Wallisville) for the seat being vacated by Sen. Larry Taylor (R-Friendswood). Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) endorsed Robin Armstrong (R).

SD25 (Likely R): Spicewood financial advisor Channon Cain filed as a primary challenger to Sen. Donna Campbell (R-New Braunfels).

HD23 open (Likely R): League City council member Nick Long said he will not seek the seat being vacated by Rep. Mayes Middleton (R-Wallisville) and will instead run for mayor.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

Republican Rep. Cason, Given Likely D District, Not Seeking Re-election

Freshman Rep. Jeff Cason (R-Bedford) announced he will not seek re-election. Cason succeeded former Rep. Jonathan Stickland (R-Bedford), who did not seek re-election in 2020, in a competitive district, only to find himself drawn into a Likely D seat by his Republican colleagues to shore up other Tarrant Co. districts. In a redistricting cycle that saw Republican incumbents being drawn into friendlier districts, Cason was one of the only – and by far the most dramatically – Republican incumbent to be drawn into a less friendly district.

As it is currently configured, HD92 was trending bluer, moving from 4.8 points redder than the state as a whole in 2012 to 2.2 points bluer than the state in 2020. Nonetheless, Cason defeated Democrat Jeff Whitfield, 51%-47%, to win his lone term. Had its redrawn configuration been used in 2000, HD92 (Likely D) would have been 15.1 points bluer than the state – a shift of nearly 13 points.

“The new HD92 has now been turned solidly blue by GOP leadership, including Tarrant County Republicans Craig Goldman, Giovanni Capriglione and Stephanie Klick,” Cason said in a statement. “It doesn’t make sense to run in a dark blue Democrat district.”

Cason also ruled out running in adjacent open HD93 (Likely R). “I do not believe chasing a position by moving into a new community is the right thing to do,” he said.

Cason becomes the 26th House member and 31st legislator elected to the 87th Legislature who have announced plans to not seek re-election in 2022.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

Candidate Filing and Mayoral Appointment News for December 1

Filing for partisan nomination or an independent candidacy for the 2022 general election continues through December 13. Our Crib Sheets are updated frequently with the latest candidate filings.

SD2 (Safe R): Sen. Bob Hall (R-Edgewood) filed for re-election, ending any speculation that he might retire.

SD11 open (Likely R): Former Texas Republican Party vice chair Robin Armstrong filed for the seat being vacated by Sen. Larry Taylor (R-Friendswood), setting up a contested primary against Rep. Mayes Middleton (R-Wallisville).

Rep. Greg Bonnen (R-Friendswood) announced he would not run for open SD11 and would seek re-election, for which he filed on the first day of the filing period. This is an example of a candidate filing that has not yet been reported by the county party, which is why our “retirement watch” list (See below) is longer than it should be.

HD57 open (Likely R): Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC endorsed Richard Hayes (R).

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

Taylor Leaving Senate as Middleton Seeks Promotion

Sen. Larry Taylor (R-Friendswood) announced he will not seek re-election, and Rep. Mayes Middleton (R-Wallisville) announced he filed for the seat.

Taylor was first elected to the Senate in 2012 following five terms in the House.

“Having the privilege of representing my community in the legislature for nearly two decades has been the biggest honor of my life,” Taylor said in a statement. “However, public service also requires sacrifice. It is a major commitment of time away from family and friends.”

He becomes the fifth senator who has announced plans to not return for 2023. Sen. Dawn Buckingham (R-Lakeway) is running for Land Commissioner. Sens. Eddie Lucio Jr. (D-Brownsville), Jane Nelson (R-Flower Mound) and Kel Seliger (R-Amarillo) are retiring. As of this writing, we have not seen confirmation or announcements that Sens. Carol Alvarado (D-Houston), Bob Hall (R-Edgewood), Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas), Jose Menendez (D-San Antonio), Charles Perry (R-Lubbock) or Beverly Powell (D-Burleson) have filed for re-election.

Middleton’s campaign website has been saying “Coming Soon” for several days, and he announced he filed for the seat within hours of Taylor’s retirement announcement. Middleton is serving his second term in the House after ousting former Rep. Wayne Faircloth (R-Galveston) in the 2018 Republican primary. Middleton’s ability to self-fund, as he did for that 2018 campaign, makes him a formidable early entrant into the race.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

Filing and Candidate Announcement News for November 30

Filing for partisan nomination or an independent candidacy for the 2022 general election continues through December 13.

AG (Lean R): U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler) filed to challenge Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) in the primary, joining Land Comm. George P. Bush (R) and former Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman (R).

SD16 (Safe D): Dallas commercial real estate associate Brandon R. Copeland established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas). We were unable to determine his partisan affiliation conclusively.

HD12 (Safe R): Huntsville businessman Ben Bius announced he will mount a primary challenge of Rep. Kyle Kacal (R-College Station).

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

McConaughey Passes on GOV Run and Other News for November 29

Filing for partisan nomination or an independent candidacy for the 2022 general election continues through December 13.

GOV (Likely R): In a video, actor Matthew McConaughey announced that a run for governor is a “path I am choosing not to take.” He said he would continue to support people and organizations that are “creating pathways for people to succeed in life.” McConaughey had been coy about which political party’s nomination, if any, he might have chosen to seek, offering few insights into his political stance or policy preferences.

In a recent poll, McConaughey was preferred over Gov. Greg Abbott (R) or Beto O’Rourke (D), likely because of his outsider status and the lack of information about his politics. This is consistent with past polls showing generic Democrats being preferred over Republican candidates, but every specific Democrats does not poll as well.

HD34 (Likely D): Former Nueces Co. Commissioner Carolyn Vaughn and 2020 Republican nominee James Hernandez filed as Republicans to challenge Rep. Abel Herrero (D-Robstown). Vaughn, who is also a former Corpus Christi council member, lost a 2020 race for mayor (17%). Hernandez received 41% of the vote in 2020 against Herrero.

Subscribers can read the rest of this report.

©2021 Texas Election Source LLC

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Jeff Blaylock

Jeff Blaylock

Publisher

Jeff is a political junkie, longtime public policy wonk and former Texas Legislature staffer who has worked political campaigns in Texas and several other states, ranging from school boards to legislators to governors to referenda. He is a public and government affairs consultant based in Austin, Texas, who offers his keen insights about Lone Star State politics as Texas Election Source.

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