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As expected, the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals issued an administrative stay to prevent a lower court ruling from restoring the single-punch, straight-party voting option to the general election ballot. The state will seek an emergency stay – an administrative stay gives it time to file for one – to maintain current law through the judicial process.

Late last week, U.S. District Judge Marina Garcia Marmolejo issued a preliminary injunction against enforcing the law eliminating the single-punch, straight-party option. In 2017, the Legislature passed House Bill 25 to eliminate the option, but it delayed implementation until this year.

SD30 special (Safe Republican): Tomorrow (Tuesday) is Election Day in SD30. We will have live results on our Twitter feed as they first become available beginning at 7 p.m. CDT and sporadically after that. Rep. Drew Springer (R-Muenster) and Pilot Point salon owner Shelley Luther are the frontrunners for a likely runoff or a less likely outright win.

SD6 (Safe Democratic): The Houston Chronicle endorsed Sen. Carol Alvarado (D-Houston).

SD13 (Safe Democratic): The Houston Chronicle endorsed Sen. Borris Miles (D-Houston).

HD67 (Toss Up): The Dallas Morning News endorsed Rep. Jeff Leach (R-Allen).

HD89 (Likely Republican): The Dallas Morning News endorsed Rep. Candy Noble (R-Lucas). In 2018, the paper endorsed Ray Ash, her current Democratic challenger, in what was then an open-seat race.

HD102 (Lean Democratic): The Dallas Morning News endorsed former Rep. Linda Koop (R-Dallas) over Rep. Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Dallas). The paper endorsed Koop in 2018.

PRES (Lean Republican): President Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden are tied, 48%-48%, according to a Democrat-aligned Public Policy Polling poll (PDF) conducted for the Texas Democratic Party.

Biden leads among women, 49%-47%, while Trump leads among men by the same split, which are easily the narrowest margins we’ve seen this cycle. Biden leads among independents, 54%-41%. One out of 13 self-identified Democrats said they would vote for Trump, and one out of 11 self-identified Republicans said they would vote for Biden.

Trump leads among Anglo voters, 66%-32%, while Biden leads among Black voters, 88%-7%, and Hispanic/Latino voters, 63%-32%.

Trump’s job performance rating was 47/48.

The survey of 612 likely voters was in the field September 25-26 and has a margin of error of ±3.6%.

Meanwhile, a new Univision News poll of Hispanic/Latino voters found Biden leading Trump, 66%-25%.

CD10 (Toss Up): A poll conducted for the campaign of Democratic challenger Mike Siegel finds him trailing U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin), 45%-43%, with Libertarian Roy Eriksen receiving 6% support. The poll found Trump and Biden tied in the district but did not specify the percentage. The GBAO poll of 400 likely voters was in the field September 21-24 and has a ±4.9% margin of error.

CD21 (Toss Up): A new ad from U.S. Rep. Chip Roy’s (R-Austin) campaign, “Reclaim,” focuses on public safety issues.

Texas Presidential Polls

  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (September) – LV
  • Trump 46, Biden 45 – Data for Progress (September) – LV
  • Trump 50, Biden 45 – Quinnipiac Univ. (September) – LV
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – NYT/Siena Coll. (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – CBS News/YouGov (September) – LV
  • Trump 46, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – Public Policy Polling (September) – V
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – DMN/UT-Tyler (September) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 45 – Data for Progress (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 44 – Tyson Group (August) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – Public Policy Polling (August) – V
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Global Strategy Group (August) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 41 – YouGov/THPF (August) – RV
  • Trump 49, Biden 43 – Trafalgar Group (August) – LV
  • Trump 47, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Morning Consult (July) – LV
  • Trump 49, Biden 45 – SPRY Strategies (July) – LV
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 45 – CBS News/YouGov (July) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 44 – Gravis/OANN (July) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July) – RV
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June) – RV
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
  • Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June) – RV
  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May) – RV
  • Trump 50, Biden 43 – Morning Consult (May) – LV
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May) – RV
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April) – V
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April) – RV
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March) – RV
  • Trump 49, Biden 45 – Marist Coll. (February) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February) – RV
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February) – RV
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February) – RV
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February) – RV
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019) – RV
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019) – RV

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls. If there is no link, then we either did not see the poll or otherwise did not have enough information to report on it. Legend: LV-Likely Voters, RV-Registered Voters, V-Voters

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC