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President Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden are within the margin of error in a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll. Trump leads Biden, 44%-43%, with 7% saying they did not know who they would vote for and 3% volunteering they would vote for someone else.

Partisans support their candidate: Trump received the support of 87% of Republicans while Biden received 90% of Democrats’ support. Biden leads among “independent” voters, 45%-36%. Trump leads among men, 49%-37%, while Biden leads among women by a nearly equal 50%-38% split.

Trump leads among Anglos, 59%-31%, but there is a significant gap in support between those without 4-year undergraduate degrees, who favor Trump, 66%-23%, and Anglos with a 4-year degree, who are evenly split, 46%-45%, with Biden the one up by a point. Biden leads among African-Americans, 76%-11%, and Hispanics/Latinos, 53%-32%.

Biden leads among voters under 35 (47%-35%) and aged 35-49 (44%-40%), while Trump leads among voters aged 50-64 (47%-44%) and 65 and older (52%-42%).

Neither candidate is above water when it comes to favorability. Trump’s favorability rating is 42/50 – unchanged since September 2019 – and Biden’s is 38/45. Among “independents,” Trump’s rating is 34/56 and Biden’s is 37/42. Gov. Greg Abbott’s overall job approval rating was 56/32, well ahead of the presumptive presidential nominees and both of the state’s U.S. senators, who were slightly above water. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R) job approval rating is 45/42 and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn’s (R) job approval rating is 37/36. Despite being up for re-election this year, more than one in four respondents had no opinion of Cornyn’s job performance.

Nearly three out of every five respondents thought Texas voters should be “allowed to vote by mail due to the coronavirus pandemic.” Unsurprisingly, 91% of Democrats say yes, nearly triple the rate of Republicans (31%). “Independents” are exactly between them, with 61% saying yes. Overall, 60% of respondents said they would “feel comfortable” voting in person in November with similar partisan splits: 84% of Republicans, 60% of “independents” and 31% of Democrats.

Partisans did see eye-to-eye on one issue: the return of Major League Baseball without fans in the stands. By a 64%-29% margin, Republican think it is “a good idea,” alongside Democrats (61%-31%) and “independents” (62%-27%). The gender gap disappeared on this issue as well: 60% of men and 61% of women think it is a “good idea” and 30% of each think it is a “bad idea.”

The poll of 1,166 self-identified registered voters were surveyed May 28-June 1 using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The poll’s stated margin of error is ±2.9%.

Recent Presidential Polls

  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May)
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May)
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April)
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April)
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March)
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February)
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February)
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February)
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February)
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January)
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019)
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019)
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019)

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls.

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC