Tuesday is Election Day. Texas voters will decide the fates of 10 constitutional amendments, elect three new state representatives (or at least narrow the fields to two candidates per seat), elect local officials and settle other propositions and special elections. We’ll have live coverage beginning at 7 p.m. CST.

About 800K Texans voted early statewide, accounting for 5% of registered voters. Roughly one out of every five early votes was cast in Harris Co., where early turnout was 6.5%. Turnout in Dallas Co. was just south of 3%. Early turnout exceeded 10% in 19 of the state’s 254 counties, peaking at 28% in Deaf Smith Co., where voters are considering a $36M bond package for a new sheriff’s office and jail. Reported turnout was less than 1% in six counties. The lowest reported early turnout was in Starr Co., where 0.3% of registered voters have cast ballots.

Early voting turnout in HD28 appears to be around 12% and around 10% in HD148. We do not have an estimate for HD100.

SD19: As expected, Rep. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) will challenge Sen. Pete Flores (R-Pleasanton), who is seeking a full term. Flores won a September 2018 special runoff election over former Rep. and U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Alpine), 57%-43%. Gutierrez finished third in the special election with 24% of the vote, missing the runoff by just under 1,200 votes.

According to our metrics, SD19 is the seat most likely to flip in 2020. The district was 9 points bluer than the state as a whole in 2018 and is thus the “bluest” district currently held by a Republican. Since 2002, the district’s current precincts have been slowly becoming more friendly to Republicans in general elections, shifting 6 points in their direction over that period of time. However, the average statewide Democratic candidate received 55% of the vote, measured head-to-head against the Republicans, in 2018. Then-U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) carried the district over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 57%-42%, and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Lupe Valdez edged out Gov. Greg Abbott (R), 50%-48%. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) carried the district over Donald Trump (R), 53%-42%.

San Antonio attorney Xochil Peña Rodriguez, daughter of former U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio), is already seeking the Democratic nomination.

PRES: President Trump leads all Democratic contenders in Texas, according to a new Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll. Despite a nearly evenly divided job performance review, Trump would defeat each potential Democratic challenger:

  • Trump 46%, Joe Biden 39%
  • Trump 46%, Elizabeth Warren 39%
  • Trump 45%, Bernie Sanders 40%
  • Trump 47%, Beto O’Rourke (who has dropped out of the race) 41%; and
  • Trump 46%, Julián Castro 33%

Despite those individual horse race poll results, Trump is underwater when it comes to whether voters would re-elect him. A slim majority would not, 48%-52%. Republicans would vote to re-elect him, 89%-11%, and Democrats would not, 6%-94%. Independents generally oppose his re-election, 38%-62%.

Among Democrats, Biden is the leading choice in the primary (23%) followed by Warren (18%), O’Rourke (14%) and Sanders (12%).

©2019 Texas Election Source LLC