Lessons from Alabama’s Special Election

Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore, 50%-48%, in last week’s special U.S. Senate election in Alabama, one of the reddest states in the country. He is the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Alabama since 1992 (That Democrat, Richard Shelby,...

Three Days Remain in Record-setting Filing Period

Filing for a place on the 2018 primary ballot continues until 6 p.m. local time on Monday. At least 407 people have filed for state and legislative offices we track, and at least 186 have filed for Texas congressional seats. This represents about three quarters of the...

Democrats Struggling to Fill Top of the 2018 Ballot

“For all the talk of turning Texas blue, it got significantly redder” began our wrap-up of the 2014 general election, which we published three years and a day ago, one day after Attorney General Greg Abbott defeated Sen. Wendy Davis (D-Fort Worth) by 20 points....

Younger Hispanic/Latino Population Outpacing Anglos

Hispanics/Latinos are responsible for more than half of the state’s population growth since 2010, according to new population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau. As of July 2016, Texas has gained more than three times as many Hispanics/Latinos than Anglos...

Republicans 4-for-4 on Congressional Special Elections

Since Donald Trump became President in January, Democrats have had four shots at taking Republican-held congressional seats in special elections. They have not won any, including losing a pair of races this week in Georgia and South Carolina (Democrats won a fifth...

Poll Gives Hope to Democrats, But …

A new poll from the Texas Lyceum shows a statistical dead heat in the U.S. Senate race, except that “haven’t thought enough about it” is the response of a plurality of registered voters. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) are tied, 30-30,...

Record Early Voting Turnout May Favor Republicans

Just shy of 4.5M Texans have voted early in person or by mail in the 15 counties with the most registered voters as of Friday, the end of the early voting by personal appearance. This is the highest-ever total recorded, finishing 32% above 2012, 26% above the previous...

Trump by 9 in Marist Poll

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll of Texas voters shows Donald Trump with a 9-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It is the third poll conducted after the FBI director’s letter to Congress regarding Clinton’s emails. All three polls have shown a widening race...

Questionable Emerson Poll Has Trump Up 14

A questionable new poll from Emerson College (pdf) gives Donald Trump a 14-point lead over Hillary Clinton in Texas, which is just about the same margin as Mitt Romney’s over President Obama in 2012. It is the second poll this week to show a double-digit spread....