Trump, Cornyn Lead in Pair of New Polls

A pair of new polls shows President Trump leading Democratic challenger Joe Biden by 3 and 5 points. The New York Times/Siena Coll. poll (PDF) finds Trump leading Biden, 46%-43%. The latest Quinnipiac Univ. poll (PDF) shows Trump leading Biden, 50%-45%. This...

DMN/UT-Tyler Poll: Biden 48, Trump 43

Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump, 48%-43%, among Texas “likely voters,” according to a new Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler poll (pdf). It is his largest lead for any Texas poll we’ve seen this cycle, and it is the first lead for either...

Another Democratic Poll, Another Statistical Dead Heat

Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, in a survey produced for Progress Texas, once again finds the presidential race in Texas to be within the margin of error. It’s June Texas Survey (PDF) shows President Trump leading presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden,...

New Polls Finds Presidential Dead Heat, Gender Gap

President Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden are within the margin of error in a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll. Trump leads Bide, 44%-43%, with 7% saying they did not know who they would vote for and 3% volunteering they would vote for someone else....

General Election Ratings, Pre-runoff Edition

Using our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole and plugging the recent Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll’s spread in the presidential race into the model, we have our early projection of the average Democratic...

UT/TT Poll: Trump Leads Biden by 5 Points

President Trump leads presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, 49%-44%, among registered voters, according to a new Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll (PDF). Trump led Biden in a hypothetical matchup by 7 points in the November 2019 UT/TT poll and by 4 points in the...

Revisiting Our Election Predictions

Now that most of the dust has settled, we take a look back at our predictions about the overall state climate and specific legislative and congressional races. We’ll take each of our five predictions in order. 1. Republicans sweep statewide races, including the...