Younger Hispanic/Latino Population Outpacing Anglos

Hispanics/Latinos are responsible for more than half of the state’s population growth since 2010, according to new population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau. As of July 2016, Texas has gained more than three times as many Hispanics/Latinos than Anglos...

Republicans 4-for-4 on Congressional Special Elections

Since Donald Trump became President in January, Democrats have had four shots at taking Republican-held congressional seats in special elections. They have not won any, including losing a pair of races this week in Georgia and South Carolina (Democrats won a fifth...

Poll Gives Hope to Democrats, But …

A new poll from the Texas Lyceum shows a statistical dead heat in the U.S. Senate race, except that “haven’t thought enough about it” is the response of a plurality of registered voters. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) are tied, 30-30,...

Record Early Voting Turnout May Favor Republicans

Just shy of 4.5M Texans have voted early in person or by mail in the 15 counties with the most registered voters as of Friday, the end of the early voting by personal appearance. This is the highest-ever total recorded, finishing 32% above 2012, 26% above the previous...

Trump by 9 in Marist Poll

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll of Texas voters shows Donald Trump with a 9-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It is the third poll conducted after the FBI director’s letter to Congress regarding Clinton’s emails. All three polls have shown a widening race...

Questionable Emerson Poll Has Trump Up 14

A questionable new poll from Emerson College (pdf) gives Donald Trump a 14-point lead over Hillary Clinton in Texas, which is just about the same margin as Mitt Romney’s over President Obama in 2012. It is the second poll this week to show a double-digit spread....

New Poll First to Show Trump Over 50

The latest KTVT/Dixie Strategies poll shows a double-digit lead for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton for the first time since the August KTVT/DS poll, and it shows Trump over 50% for the first time in any Texas poll. Trump leads Clinton, 52%-39%, with Libertarian...

What’s Behind Record-smashing Early Voting Pace

Early voting in person continues across Texas, and turnout continues to be at a record-shattering pace. Just over 1.4M had cast ballots in person and by mail in the 15 counties with the most registered voters through Wednesday, and turnout was steady in the counties...

UT/TT Poll: Trump 45, Clinton 42

A new UT/Texas Tribune poll shows (pdf) Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton, 45%-42%, among likely voters. Libertarian Gary Johnson polled at 7%, which is far above the historical average for a Libertarian candidate in Texas, and Green Jill Stein polled at 2%....

Early Voting Turnout Setting Records

Early voting in person is underway across the state. We have not seen many turnout reports yet, but what we have seen suggests heavier than usual, even historic, turnout for the first day of early voting. In Bexar Co., more than 35K voted early in person on Monday,...