Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) are statistically tied in a new poll (PDF) conducted by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, a finding largely demonstrating the balance of strong partisans within the state. Abbott leads O’Rourke, 43%-42%, among registered voters with 3% supporting minor party candidates and 12% undecided in the theoretical matchup. Abbott leads among independent voters, 42%-29%.

About as many voters “would consider” voting for O’Rourke (46%) as “never would consider” (46%), and Abbott has similar numbers (49/45). Abbott’s favorability rating was 49/47 and O’Rourke’s was 44/47.

Abbott leads among Anglo voters, 58%-30%, while O’Rourke leads among Black voters, 76%-10%. O’Rourke leads among Hispanic/Latino voters, 49%-31%, but that support is not uniform across the group. “Hispanics who are evangelical Protestants” support Abbott, 42%-37%, while Catholic Hispanics favor O’Rourke, 56%-29%. “Non-religious Hispanics” favor O’Rourke, 46%-28%.

The poll indicates the gender gap observed in 2018 and 2020 remains. Abbott leads among men, 48%-36%, while O’Rourke leads among women, 47%-39%. An age gap also persists. Abbott leads among “boomer/silent” generation voters, 57%-35%, while O’Rourke leads among millennials, 51%-31%, and Gen Z, 45%-20%.

Among “likely” Republican primary voters, Abbott laps the field with 64% with uncertain (15%) leading former Republican Party of Texas chair Allen West (13%), former Sen. Don Huffines (5%) and Chad Prather (3%). Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton leads with 54% support, well ahead of Land Comm. George P. Bush (18%), former Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman (5%) and Rep. Matt Krause (1%)

The online survey of 1,402 registered voters was conducted October 14-27. The stated margin of error is ±2.6%.

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