Nov 29, 2020 | Political Climate
For the second straight election cycle, a Democrat has won the very top race on the ballot in Tarrant Co. President-elect Joe Biden narrowly carried the county over President Trump, 49.3%-49.1%, a margin of just under 2K votes. Two years ago, former U.S. Rep. Beto...
Nov 15, 2020 | Political Climate
Joe Biden beat President Trump by a little over 850K votes in the seven counties with at least 500K registered voters. That’s nearly double the 443K-vote margin Hillary Clinton had in those counties four years earlier and a little over 100K above Beto O’Rourke’s...
Nov 1, 2020 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate
Yesterday (Saturday), we posed two fundamental questions that will be answered Tuesday, or shortly thereafter. We gave our best guess on the first question, whether Joe Biden will become the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas since 1976 (No, but...
Oct 31, 2020 | Political Climate
Two fundamental questions will be answered Tuesday, or shortly thereafter: Will Joe Biden become the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas since 1976 and the first Democrat running statewide to win since 1994? Will Democrats capture the net nine seats...
Oct 18, 2020 | Political Climate
Our latest model run moves the presidential race in Texas to Toss Up and projects a narrow Democratic majority in the Texas House when the Legislature convenes in January. Another four Republican-held House seats are within 2 percentage points of potentially adding to...
Oct 11, 2020 | Political Climate
With three weeks to go before the general election, the state of play up and down the ballot remains remarkably stable across Texas. However, as races remain close, that stability could mask a lot of volatility within polls’ margins of errors and assumptions about who...
Sep 24, 2020 | Political Climate
A pair of new polls shows President Trump leading Democratic challenger Joe Biden by 3 and 5 points. The New York Times/Siena Coll. poll (PDF) finds Trump leading Biden, 46%-43%. The latest Quinnipiac Univ. poll (PDF) shows Trump leading Biden, 50%-45%. This...
Jul 22, 2020 | Campaign News, Political Climate
Coronavirus concerns may be having an impact on voters’ choices in November, according to a new Quinnipiac Univ. Texas Poll (pdf). Nearly two-thirds of voters believe the spread of the virus is “out of control,” and about the same percentage said they know someone who...
Jul 13, 2020 | Campaign News, Political Climate
Election Day for the primary runoff and special elections is tomorrow (Tuesday). We’ll have live coverage beginning at 7 p.m. CDT. Here are the storylines we’ll be watching as votes are counted. Incumbents vs. History: Six legislative incumbents were...
Jul 12, 2020 | Political Climate
Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump, 48%-43%, among Texas “likely voters,” according to a new Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler poll (pdf). It is his largest lead for any Texas poll we’ve seen this cycle, and it is the first lead for either...
Jun 23, 2020 | Political Climate
Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, in a survey produced for Progress Texas, once again finds the presidential race in Texas to be within the margin of error. It’s June Texas Survey (PDF) shows President Trump leading presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden,...
Jun 3, 2020 | Political Climate
President Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden are within the margin of error in a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll. Trump leads Biden, 44%-43%, with 7% saying they did not know who they would vote for and 3% volunteering they would vote for someone else....
