Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 5 points among “likely voters,” growing to 8 points among “almost certain voters,” according to a new Univ. of Houston/Hobby School of Public Affairs poll. Abbott leads O’Rourke, 49%-44%, among “likely voters,” the measuring stick used by most pollsters.

Abbott’s lead increases to 51%-43% among “almost certain voters,” which are respondents who indicated they were “almost certain” to vote in November. The findings continue to demonstrate a long-standing tendency for “almost certain” voters to be slightly more Republican on balance than “likely voters,” which tend to be more Republican on balance than registered voters.

Those high polling numbers also confirm that most voters have already made up their minds. The poll found just one in 10 registered voters and one in 20 likely and “almost certain” voters remain undecided. Just 5% of Abbott and 8% of O’Rourke’s supporters “might change their mind” between now and November.

A 51%-43% outcome in the governor’s race would closely mirror the outcomes of the statewide contests in 2020, which were clustered around 53%-44%, aside from the presidential contest, which was 52%-46%.

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