Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 5 points among “likely voters,” growing to 8 points among “almost certain voters,” according to a new Univ. of Houston/Hobby School of Public Affairs poll. Abbott leads O’Rourke, 49%-44%, among “likely voters,” the measuring stick used by most pollsters.

Abbott’s lead increases to 51%-43% among “almost certain voters,” which are respondents who indicated they were “almost certain” to vote in November. The findings continue to demonstrate a long-standing tendency for “almost certain” voters to be slightly more Republican on balance than “likely voters,” which tend to be more Republican on balance than registered voters.

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