The political winds are blowing in favor of Republicans, who lead the generic ballot test for the state House of Representatives, 52%-45%, according to a new Dallas Morning News/Univ. of Texas at Tyler poll.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) also leads Democratic frontrunner Beto O’Rourke (D) by 7 points, 45%-38%, but one in six voters want to vote for “someone else.” Abbott (60%) and O’Rourke (68%) are poised to win without runoffs. In each primary race, “Don’t Know” would finish a distant second – 15% in the Republican primary, 14% in the Democratic – but well ahead of any other named candidate. Allen West (7%) and Rick Perry (6% – not the former governor) are a little ahead of Danny Harrison, former Sen. Don Huffines (R-Dallas) and Dan Prather, all at 3%. All of the other Democratic candidates are polling in the 2%-4% range.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) is similarly poised to win outright with 54% support and none of his rivals above 4%. Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) leads his primary field with 39% followed by Land Comm. George P. Bush (25%), former Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman (13%) and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert (7%). One in six primary voters is undecided.

“Don’t Know” leads Agriculture Comm. Sid Miller (R), 47%-32%, with Rep. James White (R-Hillister) well behind at 14%. Undecided also leads the Democratic primaries for LTGOV and AG.

Independents are on balance a disapproving bunch:

  • 39% think things are headed in the right direction in Texas while 57% think Texas is on the wrong track
  • 28% approve of President Biden’s job performance while 61% disapprove (8/42 strongly)
  • 39% approve of Abbott’s job performance and 54% disapprove (12/37 strongly)
  • 28% approve of Paxton’s job performance and 42% disapprove (10/25 strongly)
  • 28% have a favorable opinion of Vice President Kamala Harris while 56% have an unfavorable one (6/41 “very”)
  • 30% have a favorable opinion of O’Rourke while 45% view him unfavorably (9/35 “very”)

Independents favor Abbott over O’Rourke, 36%-29%, but nearly a third of them would vote for “someone else.” However, independents also narrowly favor the generic Democratic candidate for the state House over the generic Republican, 42%-39%.

©2022 Texas Election Source LLC