Tomorrow (Tuesday), Texas voters will cast ballots in the first-in-the-Nation primary election of this mid-term cycle. Our live coverage of results and analysis will begin at about 7 p.m. CT and can be found at txelects.com/live.
Here are some of the storylines we’re following.
Statewides in Runoff or Runoffs? Gov. Greg Abbott (R), Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R), Agriculture Comm. Sid Miller (R) and Railroad Comm. Wayne Christian (R) are facing multiple primary opponents, setting up the potential that more than one statewide incumbent could be forced into a runoff. That hasn’t happened since 2002, when all three sitting Court of Criminal Appeals judges on the ballot were forced into runoffs, which they all won.
No primary election since at least 1970 (and we suspect it goes back much earlier) has seen multiple executive branch incumbents forced into runoffs. The last single executive branch incumbent forced into a runoff was then-Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R), who went on to lose that runoff to Patrick.
Abbott and Patrick appear the least likely to head to runoffs. Abbott has two well-funded challengers appealing to the strong conservative wing of the party in former Sen. Don Huffines (R-Dallas) and former state Republican chair Allen West. Nearly every poll – save a series pushed by West’s campaign – show Abbott winning outright comfortably. Patrick’s five challengers have raised less than $100K combined and have (very) low name ID.
Paxton is the likeliest to be forced into a runoff.
Subscribers can read the rest of this analysis.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC