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PRES: The latest Morning Consult poll of the state shows President Trump leading Democratic challenger Joe Biden, 48%-47%, virtually unchanged from its pre-convention poll (47%-46%). No other details were provided at the state level.

At the national level, three things struck us as particularly informative:

  • “Likely” voters are 11 percentage points less undecided than they were four years ago (6% now versus 17% after the 2016 conventions)
  • Only 2% of voters said they were likely to vote for “someone else” instead of Trump or Biden, suggesting that most voters who dislike both candidates are still going to vote for one of them; and
  • Biden leads Trump nationally among suburban voters, 52%-41%, and independent voters, 48%-37%.

Finally, Morning Consult’s Eli Yoakley noted, “Biden continues to be on more solid polling ground than Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton was four years ago.” In Texas, Clinton never led Trump in a poll leading up to the 2016 general election and rarely topped 42%. Biden has been at or above 42% in all but two polls since February and has led Trump, albeit mostly within the margin of error, in multiple polls so far.

CD3 (Lean Republican): EMILY’s List endorsed Democratic challenger Lulu Seikaly against U.S. Rep. Van Taylor (R-Plano).

CD7 (Lean Democratic): The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed U.S. Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-Houston).

CD17 open (Likely Republican): The campaign of Democratic nominee Rick Kennedy released an internal poll showing him trailing former U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Dallas), 45%-42%. Kennedy’s name ID is at 41% and a net positive favorability rating. Sessions is known by nearly 70% of voters and has a net negative rating. President Trump leads Joe Biden, 48%-47%, in the district. Both races are within the polls ±4.4% margin of error. The Lincoln Park Strategies poll of 1,160 “likely voters” was conducted via landline and mobile numbers and was in the field August 22-23.

CD21 (Toss Up): Former Sen. Wendy Davis’s (D-Fort Worth) campaign released a new ad, “Courage,” featuring a jogging candidate recounting past political fights.

CD32 (Likely Democratic): U.S. Rep. Colin Allred’s (D-Dallas) campaign released a new ad, “Own Course,” highlighting his first term in Congress.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Allred.

Harris County: Interim Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins said he will send absentee ballot applications only to voters aged 65 and older until the state’s lawsuit is resolved. Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) filed suit yesterday (Monday) seeking to halt Hollins’s plan to mail applications to every registered voter in the county.

Recent Presidential Polls

  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – Public Policy Polling (August)
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Global Strategy Group (August)
  • Trump 48, Biden 41 – YouGov/THPF (August)
  • Trump 49, Biden 43 – Trafalgar Group (August)
  • Trump 47, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (August)
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Morning Consult (July)
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July)
  • Trump 46, Biden 45 – CBS News (July)
  • Trump 46, Biden 44 – Gravis/OANN (July)
  • Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July)
  • Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July)
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June)
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June)
  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May)
  • Trump 50, Biden 43 – Morning Consult (May)
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May)
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April)
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April)
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March)
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February)
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February)
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February)
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February)
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January)
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019)
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019)
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019)

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls.

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