Poll, Endorsement and Ad News for September 1

PRES: The latest Morning Consult poll of the state shows President Trump leading Democratic challenger Joe Biden, 48%-47%, virtually unchanged from its pre-convention poll (47%-46%). No other details were provided at the state level. At the national level, three things struck us as particularly informative:

• “Likely” voters are 11 percentage points less undecided than they were four years ago (6% now versus 17% after the 2016 conventions)
• Only 2% of voters said they were likely to vote for “someone else” instead of Trump or Biden, suggesting that most voters who dislike both candidates are still going to vote for one of them; and
• Biden leads Trump nationally among suburban voters, 52%-41%, and independent voters, 48%-37%.

Finally, Morning Consult’s Eli Yoakley noted, “Biden continues to be on more solid polling ground than Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton was four years ago.” In Texas, Clinton never led Trump in a poll leading up to the 2016 general election and rarely topped 42%. Biden has been at or above 42% in all but two polls since February and has led Trump, albeit mostly within the margin of error, in multiple polls so far. CD3 (Lean Republican): EMILY’s List endorsed Democratic challenger Lulu Seikaly against U.S. Rep. Van Taylor (R-Plano). Subscribers can read the rest of this report. ©2020 Texas Election Source LLC