This week: The primary runoff and special elections are Tuesday. We will have live coverage here and on our Twitter feed beginning at 7 p.m. CT. The following day, campaign finance reports are due for federal and state officeholders and candidates, with a few exceptions because of runoff timing. We will be updating our Crib Sheets with the latest results. Finally, on Friday – Sunday at the latest – we’ll update our Race Ratings for statewide offices, the Legislature and the Texas Congressional delegation. Check out our new Race Ratings page.
Correction: Our most recent report contained an erroneous reference to 2014 Democratic runoff turnout. We used the primary turnout number instead of the runoff turnout. The post has been updated to strike out the error.
Early voting ended Friday for Tuesday’s primary runoff and special elections.
Across Texas, 647K people voted in the Democratic runoff – 200K (31%) by mail – accounting for 4% of registered voters statewide. Total votes cast already exceeds the total votes cast in each Democratic runoff since 1994 (747K).
Statewide, 408K Republicans cast ballots – 100K (24%) by mail – early, accounting for 2.5% of all registered voters (not just those in areas with runoffs). The total will increase as final mail ballots arrive this week. Turnout will likely exceed 2018 – no statewide races then either – and will produce the third highest number of Republicans voting in a runoff in state history.
More than 1M Texans have participated in runoff elections for just the third time since 1990 (2012, 2014).
PRES/SEN: A new CBS News/YouGov survey (pdf) finds President Trump leading presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, 46%-45%. We covered a Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler poll showing Biden up 5 points here.
Men favor Trump, 50%-43%, and women favor Biden, 47%-42%. Biden is favored by voters under 30 (62%-23%) and voters aged 30-44 (49%-39%). Trump leads among older voters, including by a 60%-35% margin among voters 65 and older. Trump leads among White voters, 60%-31%, while Biden leads among Black voters (86%-5%) and Hispanic/Latino voters (60%-30%). Independents are fairly evenly split with 43% supporting Trump and 41% supporting Biden, but “moderates” favor Biden, 58%-26%.
Just 7% of respondents said they “might still” or will “probably change” their presidential vote.
Nearly three quarters of respondents believe “things in America today are going” somewhat (31%) or very badly (42%). While both are underwater, Biden (48/52) fares better than Trump (37/63) when it comes to how they “handle [themselves] personally” regardless of the respondents’ views of their policies.
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) leads both of his potential Democratic opponents in hypothetical matchups. He leads M.J. Hegar, 44%-36%, and Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas), 43%-37%.
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