2020 Texas Election Source Race Ratings
Last updated: April 28, 2020
We rate seats based on a seven-point scale from Safe Republican to Safe Democrat based on our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole. We plug our best guess estimate for the average statewide Democratic candidate, measured head-to-head against the Republican candidate, then “float” the districts above or below that percentage based on past history, recent trends and the incumbent’s tendency to over- or under-perform their party’s candidates. Our election data for each district goes back to 2002.
We will update these ratings in mid-July after the next round of campaign finance reports.
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