2020 Texas Election Source Race Ratings

Last updated: October 31, 2020

We rate seats based on a seven-point scale from Safe Republican to Safe Democrat based on our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole. We plug our best guess estimate for the average statewide Democratic candidate, measured head-to-head against the Republican candidate, then “float” the districts above or below that percentage based on past history, recent trends and the incumbent’s tendency to over- or under-perform their party’s candidates. Our election data for each district goes back to 2002.

These are our final ratings barring significant last-minute movement in multiple respected polls.


Toss Up: Trump 49.9%, Biden 49.2%

Statewide Offices

One Railroad Commissioner, four Supreme Court justices and three judges of the Court of Criminal Appeals are up for election in 2020.

Current makeup of statewide offices is: 27 Republicans, 0 Democrats

Projected makeup in 2021: 27 Republicans, 0 Democrats

Likely Republican
Lean Republican
RRC open (R)
SC-CJ (Hecht-R)
SC6 (Bland-R)
SC7 (Boyd-R)
SC8 (Busby-R)
CCA3 (Richardson-R)
CCA4 (Yeary-R)
CCA8 (Newell-R)
Lean Democratic
Likely Democratic

Texas Senate

Sixteen members of the Texas Senate are up for election in 2020. All 31 will be up for election in 2022 after redistricting.

Current makeup of the Texas Senate: 19 Republicans, 11 Democrats with one vacancy (SD14, safe Democrat).

Projected makeup in 2021: 18 Republicans, 13 Democrats

Likely Republican
SD11 (Taylor-R)
SD12 (Nelson-R)
Lean Republican
Lean Democratic
SD19 (Flores-R)
Likely Democratic
SD20 (Hinojosa-D)
SD21 (Zaffirini-D)

Safe Republicans (6): SD1 (Hughes), SD4 (Creighton), SD18 (Kolkhorst), SD22 (Birdwell), SD24 (Buckingham), SD28 (Perry). Republicans not on the ballot in 2020 (10): SD2 (Hall), SD3 (Nichols), SD5 (Schwertner), SD7 (Bettencourt), SD8 (Paxton), SD9 (Hancock), SD17 (Huffman), SD25 (Campbell), SD30 (Fallon), SD31 (Seliger)

Safe Democrats (5): SD6 (Alvarado), SD13 (Miles), SD26 (Menendez), SD27 (Lucio), SD29 open. Democrats not on the ballot in 2020 (5): SD10 (Powell), SD14 open (D), SD15 (Whitmire), SD16 (Johnson), SD23 (West)

Texas House of Representatives

All 150 members of the Texas House of Representatives are up for election in 2020.

Current makeup of the Texas House: 83 Republicans, 67 Democrats.

Projected makeup in 2021: 77 Democrats, 73 Republicans 

Likely Republican
HD17 (Cyrier-R)
HD23 (Middleton-R)
HD32 (Hunter-R)
HD33 (Holland-R)
HD70 (Sanford-R)
HD84 (Frullo-R)
HD85 (Stephenson-R)
HD89 (Noble-R)
HD91 (Klick-R)
HD122 (Larson-R)
HD133 (Murphy-R)
Lean Republican
HD28 (Gates-R)
HD29 (E. Thompson-R)
HD54 (Buckley-R)
HD106 (Patterson-R)
HD126 (Harless-R)
HD129 (Paul-R)
HD150 (Swanson-R)
HD26 open (R)
HD64 (Stucky-R)
HD92 open (R)
HD93 (Krause-R)
HD94 (Tinderholt-R)
HD96 open (R)
HD97 (Goldman-R)
HD121 (Allison-R)
Lean Democratic
HD31 (Guillen-D)
HD34 (Herrero-D)
HD65 (Beckley-D)
HD66 (Shaheen-R)
HD67 (Leach-R)
HD74 open (D)
HD112 (Button-R)
HD132 (Calanni-D)
HD135 (Rosenthal-D)
HD138 open (R)
Likely Democratic
HD41 (Guerra-D)
HD45 (Zwiener-D)
HD47 (Goodwin-D)
HD52 (Talarico-D)
HD102 (Ramos-D)
HD105 (Meza-D)
HD107 (Neave-D)
HD108 (Meyer-R)
HD113 (Bowers-D)
HD114 (Turner-D)
HD115 (Ju. Johnson-D)
HD117 (Cortez-D)
HD118 (Pachecho-D)
HD134 (Davis-R)
HD136 (Bucy-D)
HD144 (Perez-D)

Safe Republicans (49): HD1 (VanDeaver), HD2 open, HD3 (C. Bell), HD4 (K. Bell), HD5 (Hefner), HD6 (Schaefer), HD7 (Dean), HD8 (Harris), HD9 (Paddie), HD10 open, HD11 (Clardy), HD12 (Kacal), HD13 (Leman), HD15 (Toth), HD16 (Metcalf), HD18 (Bailes), HD19 (White), HD20 (Wilson), HD21 (Phelan), HD24 (G. Bonnen), HD25 open, HD30 (Morrison), HD43 (Lozano)*, HD44 (Kuempel), HD53 (Murr), HD55 (Shine), HD56 (Anderson), HD57 (Ashby), HD58 (Burns), HD59 open, HD60 open, HD61 (P. King), HD62 (Smith), HD63 (Parker), HD68 (Springer), HD69 (Frank), HD71 (Lambert), HD72 (Darby), HD73 (Biedermann), HD81 (Landgraf), HD82 (Craddick), HD83 (Burrows), HD86 (Smithee), HD87 (Price), HD88 (K. King), HD98 (Capriglione), HD99 (Geren)*, HD127 (Huberty)*, HD128 (Cain), HD130 (Oliverson)

Safe Democrats (48): HD22 (Deshotel), HD27 (Reynolds), HD35 (Longoria)*, HD36 (Munoz), HD37 (Dominguez)*, HD38 (Lucio)*, HD39 (Martinez), HD40 (Canales), HD42 (Raymond), HD46 (Cole), HD48 (Howard), HD49 (Hinojosa), HD50 (Israel), HD51 (Rodriguez), HD75 (M. Gonzalez), HD76 open, HD77 (Ortega), HD78 (Moody), HD79 (Fierro), HD80 (T. King)*, HD90 (Romero), HD95 (Collier), HD100 open, HD101 (C. Turner), HD103 (Anchia), HD104 (J. Gonzalez), HD109 (Sherman), HD110 (Y. Davis), HD111 (Rose), HD116 (Martinez Fischer), HD119 open, HD120 (Gervin Hawkins), HD123 (Bernal), HD124 (Minjarez), HD125 (Lopez), HD131 (Allen), HD137 (Wu), HD139 (Ja. Johnson), HD140 (Walle), HD141 (S. Thompson), HD142 (Dutton), HD143 (Hernandez), HD144 (Perez), HD145 (Morales), HD146 (Thierry), HD147 (Coleman), HD148 open, HD149 (Vo)

* Would be rated Likely if facing a major-party opponent.


Texas Congressional Delegation

All 36 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) are up for election in 2020.

Current makeup of the Texas Congressional delegation: 22 Republicans, 13 Democrats with 1 vacancy (CD4, safe Republican) and 2 Republican U.S. Senators.

Projected makeup in 2021: 18 Republicans, 18 Democrats with 2 Republican U.S. Senators

Likely Republican
CD5 (Gooden-R)
CD14 (Weber-R)
CD17 open (R)
CD26 (Burgess-R)
Lean Republican
SEN (Cornyn-R)
CD2 (Crenshaw-R)
CD3 (Taylor-R)
CD6 (Wright-R)
CD10 (McCaul-R)
CD21 (Roy-R)
CD22 open (R)
CD25 (Williams-R)
CD31 (Carter-R)
Lean Democratic
CD7 (Fletcher-D)
CD23 open (R)
CD24 open (R)
Likely Democratic
CD15 (Gonzales-D)
CD32 (Allred-D)
CD34 (Vela-D)

Safe Republicans (9): CD1 (Gohmert), CD4 open, CD8 (Brady), CD11 open, CD12 (Granger), CD13 open, CD19 (Arrington), CD27 (Cloud), CD36 (Babin). U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is not up for re-election until 2024.

Safe Democrats (9): CD9 (Green), CD16 (Escobar), CD18 (Jackson Lee), CD20 (Castro), CD28 (Cuellar), CD29 (Garcia), CD30 (Johnson), CD33 (Veasey), CD35 (Doggett)

Note: We are no longer including or covering candidates for the State Board of Education.

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC