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A new poll from Democrat-aligned Public Policy Polling shows Democratic challenger Joe Biden leading President Trump, 48%-47%, well within the margin of error.

Biden leads among self-identified independents, 54%-37%, with 9% undecided. In the firm’s August 2016 poll, independents favored Trump, 47%-37%, with 16% undecided.

A small, but potentially significant, 7% of people who said they voted for Trump in 2016 intend to vote for Biden this year, compared to 3% of respondents who voted in Hillary Clinton in 2016 and now intend to vote for Trump. This is actually in line with the firm’s August 2016 poll, when 9% of Mitt Romney supporters said they would vote for Clinton and 6% of Barack Obama supporters said they would vote for Trump.

Trump leads among Anglo voters, 68%-29%, and Biden leads among Hispanic/Latino voters, 72%-20%, and Black voters, 93%-4%. The poll reveals a statistically significant but smaller gender gap than we have observed in other polls. Trump leads among men, 50%-45%, and Biden leads among women by an identical 50%-45% margin. In the 2016 poll, Trump’s lead among men was 54%-39%, and Clinton’s lead among women was 49%-46%.

Trump leads, 53%-38%, among voters with a high school education or less. Unfortunately, the firm’s August 2016 poll did not ask about respondents’ education attainment. Biden leads among college graduates, 59%-38%, and respondents with a post-graduate degree, 62%-35%.

Trump’s job performance rating is 46/52. Among self-identified independents, Trump’s performance rating is 33/64.

The poll of 764 “Texas voters” was in the field August 21-22 – after the conclusion of the virtual Democratic National Convention – and was conducted evenly between landlines and text messaging. Its margin of error is ±3.6%.

SD30 special (Safe Republican): Because of the very short timeline caused by a September 29 election date, no campaign finance reports will be required of the candidates until September 21, which is more than halfway through the early voting period. Candidates’ 8-day-out reports will disclose contributions received and expenditures made between the earlier of July 1 or the date they established their campaign committee and September 19.

Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC endorsed Rep. Drew Springer (R-Muenster).

Harris Co.: The Commissioners Court, on a party-line vote, approved interim County Clerk Chris Hollins’s plan to extend early voting hours, including one full 24-hour period, and add drive-through voting locations. The court approved $17M in expenditures – $16M of which came from funds allocated by the federal CARES Act – on top of $12M previously approved to expand absentee voting.

The county plans to operate 120 early voting and 808 Election Day polling stations, up from 40 and 750, respectively.

Recent Presidential Polls

  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Global Strategy Group (August)
  • Trump 48, Biden 41 – YouGov/THPF (August)
  • Trump 49, Biden 43 – Trafalgar Group (August)
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Morning Consult (August)
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Morning Consult (July)
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July)
  • Trump 46, Biden 45 – CBS News (July)
  • Trump 46, Biden 44 – Gravis/OANN (July)
  • Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July)
  • Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July)
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June)
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June)
  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May)
  • Trump 50, Biden 43 – Morning Consult (May)
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May)
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April)
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April)
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March)
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February)
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February)
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February)
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February)
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January)
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019)
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019)
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019)

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls.

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