A new survey from Public Policy Polling, a firm mostly aligned with Democrats, found President Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden tied, 48%-48%, with just 4% unsure five months before the general election. Independents favored Trump, 52%-42%. Interestingly, Biden was stronger among Democrats (88%-8%) than Trump was among Republicans (83%-14%).

An April poll from the firm had Biden leading Trump, 47%-46%. In that survey, independents favored Biden, 50%-34%, and only 6% of Republicans indicated they would vote for Biden.

Trump’s job performance approval rating was 46/50. Anglos were more than twice as likely to approve than disapprove (67/32) but Hispanic/Latino (18/73) and African-American (2/97) voters were decidedly disapproving. His approval rating among voters aged 18 to 45 was 38/56. He was less underwater among voters aged 46 to 65, and his rating among voters over 65 was 58/39. The poll did not include a question about Biden’s favorability.

The percentage of self-identified Republicans (41%) and Democrats (38%) was fairly close, but the sample’s 2016 presidential vote tracked with Trump’s actual margin of victory. The survey of 682 “Texas voters” was in the field June 3-4. No margin of error was indicated on the results or crosstabs.

HD67: The Texas Parent PAC endorsed Tom Adair in the Democratic runoff over Lorenzo Sanchez.

HD138 open: The Texas Parent PAC endorsed Akilah Bacy in the Democratic runoff over Jennifer Rene Pool.

CD7: Republican challenger Wesley Hunt’s campaign released a new, minute-long ad, “Chains,” highlighting his family’s five-generation journey “from slavery to West Point.”

FEC: Attorney Trey Trainor was sworn in today (Friday) as a Federal Election Commissioner, giving the normally six-member agency a quorum of four for the first time in more than nine months. Trainor, the only person thus far nominated for the commission by President Trump, was confirmed by the U.S. Senate last month.

The quorum may be temporary. Commissioners Caroline Hunter (R), Ellen Weintraub (D) and Steven Walther (I) are collectively 31 years past their terms’ expiration dates. Trump has thus far declined to nominate Shana Broussard, Senate Democrats’ choice for the other Democratic seat on the commission. Broussard would be the first African-American to serve on the commission if nominated and confirmed.

If a commission vote is required for the FEC to take action, all four commissioners must agree. Any single commissioner can effectively block any proposal.

Travis Co.: Former San Antonio Mayor and Democratic presidential candidate Julián Castro, through his People First Future PAC, endorsed challenger José Garza in the Democratic runoff over incumbent District Attorney Margaret Moore.

Recent Presidential Polls

  • Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June)
  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May)
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May)
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April)
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April)
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March)
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February)
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February)
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February)
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February)
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January)
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019)
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019)
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019)

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls.

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC