A pair of new polls shows President Trump leading Democratic challenger Joe Biden by 3 and 5 points. The New York Times/Siena Coll. poll (PDF) finds Trump leading Biden, 46%-43%. The latest Quinnipiac Univ. poll (PDF) shows Trump leading Biden, 50%-45%. This represents a 6-point shift toward Trump from Quinnipiac’s July poll, which found Biden leading Trump, 45%-44%.

In the U.S. Senate race, NYT/Siena finds U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) leading Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar, 43%-37%. Quinnipiac finds Cornyn leading Hegar, 50%-42%.

Both polls found most voters have already made up their minds about their presidential choices. NYT/Siena found more than nine out of 10 respondents said they would “definitely vote” for their favored candidate. Only 9% of respondents said they “could change” their mind. Of Quinnipiac poll respondents who favored a candidate, 94% said their “mind [was] made up” and only 5% said they “might change” their mind.

Demographic splits (NYT/Siena, Quinnipiac):

  • Men: Trump 52%-36%, Trump 55%-41%
  • Women: Biden 49%-41%, Biden 50%-46%

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