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President Trump leads Democratic challenger Joe Biden, 48%-46%, among respondents “most likely to vote,” according to a new Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler poll (PDF). Biden leads Trump by a point, 44%-43%, among all registered voters and “likely voters.” Biden led Trump, 48%-43%, in the July DMN/UT-Tyler poll.

Among the “most likely to vote” subset, Trump leads among Anglo voters, 60%-35%, while Biden leads among Black voters, 87%-9%, and Hispanic/Latino voters, 58%-28%. Biden leads Trump by 53 points (75%-22%) among voters aged 18-24 and by 28 points (58%-30%) among voters aged 25-34. They are tied, 47%-47%, among voters aged 35-44. Trump leads Biden by nearly identical 54%-40% and 56%-40% margins among voters aged 45-65 and over 65, respectively.

Trump’s overall job performance rating was 42/38 with a 24/29 rating among those who “strongly” approve or disapprove. Among independents, Trump’s rating is 29/38.

Two out of every five “extremely likely to vote” respondents identified as Republicans, compared to 35% who said they were Democrats and 25% who said neither. Republicans (86%) most often said they were “extremely likely” to vote, followed by Democrats (82%) and independents (65%). Anglo voters (87%) and voters over age 45 (94%) more often said they were “extremely likely to vote” than Black voters (73%), Hispanic/Latino voters (60%) and voters under 45 (65%).

Interestingly, 80% of “Metro” voters said they were “extremely likely to vote” compared to 67% of suburban/rural respondents. In most of the state’s rural counties, nearly every candidate on the ballot is a Republican. His margin among rural voters secured U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R) re-election in 2018.

Voters’ choices are fairly locked in with two months to go before Election Day: 94% of Trump supporters and Biden supporters said they “have decided” or “probably won’t change my mind.”

In the U.S. Senate race, “likely voters” sided with U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) over Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar, 39%-28%, with 28% of voters undecided – a large number considering Cornyn’s long tenure in elective office. Independents narrowly break for Cornyn, 32%-29%, with 35% undecided. Cornyn’s favorability rating is 40/32 (28/34 among independents) and Hegar’s is 32/18 (23/17 among independents).

  • Cruz favorability – 44/37 (31/41 among independents)
  • Greg Abbott job approval – 54/33 (45/32 among independents)
  • Lt . Gov. Dan Patrick job approval – 42/45 (31/47 among independents)
  • Kamala Harris favorability – 42/42 (32/38 among independents)
  • Vice President Mike Pence favorability – 42/42 (28/45 among indepenents)

Overall, respondents had a slightly favorable view of the Black Lives Matter movement (40/37). Democrats were decidedly more favorable (72/6) than independents (37/33) and Republicans (13/69).

The poll of 1,182 registered voters was conducted in English and Spanish and was in the field August 28-September 2. The margin of error for the full sample was ±2.85%, slightly higher for the 925 who said they were “extremely likely” to vote.

Texas Presidential Polls

  • Biden 48, Trump 45 – Data for Progress (September)
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – Morning Consult (August)
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – Public Policy Polling (August)
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Global Strategy Group (August)
  • Trump 48, Biden 41 – YouGov/THPF (August)
  • Trump 49, Biden 43 – Trafalgar Group (August)
  • Trump 47, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (August)
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Morning Consult (July)
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July)
  • Trump 46, Biden 45 – CBS News (July)
  • Trump 46, Biden 44 – Gravis/OANN (July)
  • Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July)
  • Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July)
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June)
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June)
  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May)
  • Trump 50, Biden 43 – Morning Consult (May)
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May)
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April)
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April)
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March)
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February)
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February)
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February)
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February)
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January)
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019)
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019)
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019)

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls.

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC