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A new Data for Progress survey (PDF) conducted entirely online finds Democratic challenger Joe Biden leading President Trump, 48%-45%, with 8% unsure. Biden leads among “independents,” 47%-33%. Within 34 “battleground” Texas House districts, Biden leads Trump, 49%-42%. The “battleground” districts include all but one that we rate Lean Republican, Toss Up or Lead Democratic.

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) leads Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar, 46%-40%, with 15% unsure. Cornyn leads among independents, 36%-32%. Cornyn receives the same net support among Republicans (+78) as Trump (+78), while Hegar (+78) is running short of Biden’s net support (+90) among Democrats.

In the open RRC race, Jim Wright (R) leads Chrysta Castañeda, 41%-35%, with Libertarian Matt Sterett receiving 3%. One out of five respondents were unsure.

The survey of 2,295 “likely general election voters” using online panels was in the field August 20-25. It was conducted in English and has a margin of error of ±2%. Responses were weighted to be representative by “age, gender, education, race, geography and voting history.” The “battleground” district subset included 1,032 participants and a larger, unspecified margin of error.

SD30 special (Safe Republican): The Shelley Luther (R) campaign released a new ad, “Shake Things Up,” contrasting the reactions to protesters and her decision to reopen her salon.

Shake Things Up

I'm running for the Texas Senate because the politicians we have in office refuse to lead. I'm a businesswoman, not a politician and I'm ready to shake things up. Please consider making a donation to help us spread our message across District 30.https://shelleyluther.org/donate/To volunteer for the campaign fill out the form below: https://shelleyluther.org/volunteer/

Posted by Shelley Luther on Friday, September 4, 2020

SD27 (Safe Democratic): The Republican Party of Texas has disavowed its nominee challenging Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. (D-Brownsville), citing her “multiple arrests and shocking evidence of driving under the influence, using controlled substances and endangering a child.”

Raymondville nurse Vanessa Tijerina, who was unopposed in the Republican primary, has been arrested at least twice and charged with at least two felony counts of driving while intoxicated with child passengers and at least two misdemeanors. In a September 2 Facebook post, she said she was “await[ing] my 9th arrest in 5 years.” She live-streamed portions of a June arrest.

Tijerina is a former Democratic precinct chair, former Green Party candidate for CD15 and former candidate for Raymondville mayor.

CD10 (Toss Up): The Mike Siegel (D) campaign released a new ad, “Crisis,” a general message about policy stands and Siegel not accepting corporate PAC donations.

CD21 (Toss Up): Club for Growth Action has committed an additional $500K in support for U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin). The group previously committed $2.5M in TV ad reservations for the race.

CD25 (Lean Republican): U.S. Rep. Roger Williams’s (R-Austin) campaign released the topline of an internal poll showing him leading Democratic challenger Julie Oliver, 52%-40%. The Remington Research Group poll was conducted September 1-2 over landlines (65%) and mobile numbers (35%). Its margin of error is ±3.5%.

Texas Presidential Polls

  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – Morning Consult (August)
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – Public Policy Polling (August)
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Global Strategy Group (August)
  • Trump 48, Biden 41 – YouGov/THPF (August)
  • Trump 49, Biden 43 – Trafalgar Group (August)
  • Trump 47, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (August)
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Morning Consult (July)
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July)
  • Trump 46, Biden 45 – CBS News (July)
  • Trump 46, Biden 44 – Gravis/OANN (July)
  • Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July)
  • Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July)
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June)
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June)
  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May)
  • Trump 50, Biden 43 – Morning Consult (May)
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May)
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April)
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April)
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March)
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February)
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February)
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February)
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February)
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January)
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019)
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019)
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019)

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls.

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC