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Pilot Point salon owner Shelley Luther and Rep. Drew Springer (R-Muenster) are headed to a runoff to fill the unexpired term of Sen. Pat Fallon (R-Prosper).

Luther edged out Springer for first place by 164 votes, 32.2%-31.9%. Democrat Jacob Minter came in third with 21% of the vote. The remaining three candidates received 14.7% of the vote combined.

These results are unofficial, and they use Clay Co.’s own election reporting system’s results rather than the results reflected for the county by the Secretary of State as of press time. If the Clay Co. numbers reported to the Secretary of State are correct, then Springer finished 89 votes ahead of Luther.

Turnout was just south of 11% across the district. Turnout was highest in Cooke Co. (19%), which is Springer’s home county. Turnout exceeded 18% in Jack, Montague and Young Cos.

The runoff election date will be set by Gov. Greg Abbott (R). Sec. 203.013, Election Code provides that a runoff shall be on a Tuesday or Saturday not earlier than the 12th day and not later than the 25th day after Abbott orders it.

PRES (Lean Republican): A Univ. of Massachusetts-Lowell poll (PDF) shows President Trump leading Democratic challenger Joe Biden, 49%-46%, among likely voters.

Trump leads among men, 52%-42%, and Biden leads among women, 49%-47%. This is the second poll in as many days showing Biden’s lead among women within the margin of error. Biden leads among independents, 43%-36%. Trump leads among Anglo voters, 60%-34%. Biden leads among Black voters (81%-16%), Hispanic/Latino voters (49%-45%) and “other” voters (55%-40%). Trump’s 45% support from Hispanic/Latino voters is among the highest we have seen, and it runs counter to a recent Univision News poll of Hispanic/Latino voters which found them favoring Biden, 66%-25%.

Asked about how “things in this country are generally going,” 37% of respondents thought things were going in the right direction, and 63% thought the country was on the wrong track. Independents were nearly three-to-one of the belief that the country was on the wrong track.

Trump’s job approval rating was 50/49 (37/40 “strongly”). Independents scored his job performance as 40/60 (27/39 “strongly”).

SEN (Lean Republican): That UMass-Lowell poll shows U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) leading Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar, 50%-40%.

CD18 (Safe Democratic): The Houston Chronicle endorsed U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).

CD22 open (Toss Up): The Houston Chronicle endorsed Democratic nominee Sri Preston Kulkarni. The paper endorsed him in 2018 when he challenged U.S. Rep. Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land), who did not seek re-election this year.

GOV (Up in 2022): That UMass-Lowell poll shows Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) job approval rating is 55/46 (28/26 “strongly”).

Texas Presidential Polls

  • Trump 49, Biden 46 – UMass-Lowell (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (September) – LV
  • Trump 46, Biden 45 – Data for Progress (September) – LV
  • Trump 50, Biden 45 – Quinnipiac Univ. (September) – LV
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – NYT/Siena Coll. (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – CBS News/YouGov (September) – LV
  • Trump 46, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – Public Policy Polling (September) – V
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – DMN/UT-Tyler (September) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 45 – Data for Progress (September) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 44 – Tyson Group (August) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – Public Policy Polling (August) – V
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Global Strategy Group (August) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 41 – YouGov/THPF (August) – RV
  • Trump 49, Biden 43 – Trafalgar Group (August) – LV
  • Trump 47, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
  • Biden 47, Trump 45 – Morning Consult (July) – LV
  • Trump 49, Biden 45 – SPRY Strategies (July) – LV
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 45 – CBS News/YouGov (July) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 44 – Gravis/OANN (July) – LV
  • Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July) – RV
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June) – RV
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
  • Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June) – RV
  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May) – RV
  • Trump 50, Biden 43 – Morning Consult (May) – LV
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May) – RV
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April) – V
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April) – RV
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March) – RV
  • Trump 49, Biden 45 – Marist Coll. (February) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February) – RV
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February) – RV
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February) – RV
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February) – RV
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January) – LV
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019) – RV
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019) – RV
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019) – RV

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls. If there is no link, then we either did not see the poll or otherwise did not have enough information to report on it. Legend: LV-Likely Voters, RV-Registered Voters, V-Voters

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC