Early voting continues through October 30. Today (Monday) was the seventh day of early voting, which began last Tuesday. Turnout continues to be record-breaking.
Through yesterday (Sunday), more than 4M Texans have already cast ballots in person or by mail statewide, representing 24% of the state’s 16.96M registered voters. The number of early votes cast so far is 62% of the total early vote from the 2016 general election and already exceeds the total number of early votes cast in 2004. Keep in mind that many counties did not open polling places yesterday.
In the 15 counties with the most registered voters, more than 2.8M people have cast ballots through Sunday. It took eight days of early voting to reach 2.8M early voters in 2016 and 2018, and 11 days to reach that number in 2012.
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According to Republican strategist Derek Ryan’s latest analysis of turnout in 30 large counties, 35.7% of early votes cast so far have come from voters who have no recent primary voting history, including the 10.9% of early voters with no recent voting history in primary or general elections. So far, Democratic primary voters are casting ballots at a higher rate than Republican primary voters. Two thirds of people who voted in the last four Democratic primary elections have already cast ballots compared to half of “Four Rs.” Historically, both groups end up voting at a better than 97% clip.
Abbott Spending: Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) campaign said it would be making a “mid-seven-figure” expenditure to support two dozen Republican legislative candidates and judicial candidates statewide.
HD94 (Lean Republican): The Fort Worth Star-Telegram endorsed Democratic challenger Alisa Simmons over Rep. Tony Tinderholt (R-Arlington).
PRES (Toss Up)/SEN (Lean Republican): A new Data for Progress poll (PDF) shows President Trump leading Democratic challenger Joe Biden, 46%-44%, among likely voters. Biden leads, 47%-46%, with leaners added. Biden leads, 57%-41%, among respondents who said they have already voted.
The poll finds U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) leading Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar, 43%-36%, but his lead narrows to 44%-41% once leaners are added.
The poll of 933 likely voters was in the field October 15-18 and has a ±3.2% margin of error.
CD22 open (Toss Up): Democratic nominee Sri Preston Kulkarni’s campaign released an internal poll showing him leading Fort Bend Co. Sheriff Troy Nehls (R), 48%-43%. Joe Biden leads President Trump, 52%-43%, in the district. The GBAO poll of 500 likely voters was conducted via landlines and mobile devices. It was in the field October 8-11 and has a ±4.4% margin of error.
CD24 open (Toss Up): The Fort Worth Star-Telegram endorsed Republican nominee Beth Van Duyne.
CD32 (Likely Democratic): Republican challenger Genevieve Collins contributed an additional $520K to her campaign, bringing her total self-funding to $1.9M including contributions and loans.
Absentee Ballot Signatures: A three-judge panel of the Fifth U.S. Court of Appeals has stayed a lower court’s order requiring the state to give voters an opportunity to correct signature mis-matches on absentee ballots. A temporary administrative stay was already in place.
Section 87.0431, Election Code provides that a voter must be informed in writing that their absentee ballot was rejected not later than 10 days after Election Day. Thus, voters do not have an opportunity to cure any signature-related issues.
Texas Presidential Polls
- Trump 46, Biden 44 – Data for Progress (October) – LV
- Trump 49, Biden 47 – Morning Consult (October) – LV
- Trump 50, Biden 45 – Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune (October) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (October) – V
- Trump 51, Biden 44 – Crosswind (October) – LV
- Trump 49, Biden 49 – EMC Research (October) – LV
- Biden 47, Trump 45 – Data for Progress (October) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 48 – Civiqs (October) – LV
- Trump 49, Biden 46 – UMass-Lowell (September) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (September) – LV
- Trump 46, Biden 45 – Data for Progress (September) – LV
- Trump 50, Biden 45 – Quinnipiac Univ. (September) – LV
- Trump 46, Biden 43 – NYT/Siena Coll. (September) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 46 – CBS News/YouGov (September) – LV
- Trump 46, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (September) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 47 – Public Policy Polling (September) – V
- Trump 48, Biden 46 – DMN/UT-Tyler (September) – LV
- Biden 48, Trump 45 – Data for Progress (September) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 47 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
- Biden 48, Trump 44 – Tyson Group (August) – LV
- Biden 48, Trump 47 – Public Policy Polling (August) – V
- Biden 47, Trump 45 – Global Strategy Group (August) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 41 – YouGov/THPF (August) – RV
- Trump 49, Biden 43 – Trafalgar Group (August) – LV
- Trump 47, Biden 46 – Morning Consult (August) – LV
- Biden 47, Trump 45 – Morning Consult (July) – LV
- Trump 49, Biden 45 – SPRY Strategies (July) – LV
- Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July) – RV
- Trump 46, Biden 45 – CBS News/YouGov (July) – RV
- Trump 46, Biden 44 – Gravis/OANN (July) – LV
- Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July) – RV
- Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June) – RV
- Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
- Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June) – V
- Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June) – RV
- Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May) – RV
- Trump 50, Biden 43 – Morning Consult (May) – LV
- Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May) – RV
- Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April) – V
- Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April) – RV
- Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March) – RV
- Trump 49, Biden 45 – Marist Coll. (February) – RV
- Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February) – RV
- Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February) – RV
- Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February) – RV
- Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February) – RV
- Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January) – LV
- Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019) – RV
- Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019) – RV
- Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019) – RV
Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls. If there is no link, then we either did not see the poll or otherwise did not have enough information to report on it. Legend: LV-Likely Voters, RV-Registered Voters, V-Voters
©2020 Texas Election Source LLC
