Yesterday (Saturday), we posed two fundamental questions that will be answered Tuesday, or shortly thereafter. We gave our best guess on the first question, whether Joe Biden will become the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas since 1976 (No, but barely). We turn to the second question – Will Democrats capture the net nine seats to flip the state House? – here. The short answer is, yes.

At this time, we are projecting the Democrats will pick up 10 Republican-held seats while losing none of their own, which would give them a 77-73 majority entering the legislative session. Five more Republican-held seats are projected to be within 2 points of a potential flip, while no Democrat-held seats are within 2 points.

Our final legislative and congressional race ratings are posted here.

In our discussion of the presidential race, we outlined the political climate as a whole to set up a central question: at the state level, will the Republican advantage in smaller counties (fewer than 250K registered voters) be big enough to withstand a Democratic advantage in the urban and suburban counties. This question presumes a continuation of the suburban trends toward the Democrats (or, more likely, away from President Trump). At the state level, candidates have the ability to draw on that large bank of ruby red voters. Candidates running in suburban districts have no such ace in the hole.

Democratic Pick-up Opportunities

The Republican-held House seats below are listed in order from most likely to least likely to flip. We won’t repeat a lot of the rationale for each seat – links after each go to our analyses from earlier this fall. Those analyses reflect the state of the races and their ratings at that time. The ratings below are current.

Subscribers can read the rest of this analysis.

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC