Yesterday (Saturday), we posed two fundamental questions that will be answered Tuesday, or shortly thereafter. We gave our best guess on the first question, whether Joe Biden will become the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas since 1976 (No, but barely). We turn to the second question – Will Democrats capture the net nine seats to flip the state House? – here. The short answer is, yes.

At this time, we are projecting the Democrats will pick up 10 Republican-held seats while losing none of their own, which would give them a 77-73 majority entering the legislative session. Five more Republican-held seats are projected to be within 2 points of a potential flip, while no Democrat-held seats are within 2 points.

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