Nov 8, 2020 | General Elections, House Race Analyses
This is the first in a series of periodic analyses of the 2020 general election. The signs pointed to further Democratic gains in the Texas House of Representatives. Entering Election Day, there were 83 Republican-held seats and 67 Democrat-held seats. Two years...
Nov 1, 2020 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate
Yesterday (Saturday), we posed two fundamental questions that will be answered Tuesday, or shortly thereafter. We gave our best guess on the first question, whether Joe Biden will become the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas since 1976 (No, but...
Sep 13, 2020 | House Race Analyses
We conclude our analysis of potentially competitive Texas House districts with a discussion of South and West Texas. To skip to the punchline, we do not expect any of the seats discussed here to flip. What’s more interesting here is the potential long-term shifts in...
Sep 7, 2020 | House Race Analyses
We continue our analysis of potentially competitive Texas House districts with an exploration of Brazos, Brazoria and Fort Bend Counties (We admit we are stretching the definition of Southeastern Texas to include Brazos Co.). Brazos County HD14 (Lean Republican) sits...
Aug 29, 2020 | House Race Analyses
We continue our series of analyses of competitive, or potentially competitive, legislative seats with an exploration of the I-35 corridor from Bell Co. to Bexar Co. Republican Targets HD45 (Lean Democratic): Rep. Erin Zwiener (D-Driftwood) won this open seat in 2018,...
Aug 23, 2020 | House Race Analyses
For much of the past decade-plus, Harris Co. experienced a phenomenon I called “partisan mood swings.” Democrats running countywide – potentially all of them – tended to win in presidential election years. Republicans running countywide – often all of them – tended to...
Aug 15, 2020 | House Race Analyses
When former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) edged out U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 49.9%-49.2%, in Tarrant Co., he became the first Democrat to win countywide since 1994. Despite the narrow loss, Cruz won every Republican-held district in 2018. Some of them were very...
Aug 9, 2020 | House Race Analyses
Dallas Co. was the epicenter of Democrats’ 2018 surge. They flipped five House seats, one Senate seat and one congressional seat. They swept every countywide office. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) doubled up U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, beating him by 33 points....
Aug 2, 2020 | House Race Analyses
Four suburban North Texas districts are at various stages of turning increasingly competitive or outright friendly to Democratic candidates. One flipped in 2018. Two more are poised to flip in 2020, and the fourth may remain just out of reach, even though it, like the...
Jan 25, 2020 | House Race Analyses, Special Elections
Special elections are strange animals, and anything can happen in them (e.g. Laura Thompson becoming the first independent to win a House since 1936), but an Eliz Markowitz victory on Tuesday must be considered an upset were it to occur. Markowitz faces Rosenberg real...
Oct 29, 2019 | House Race Analyses, Special Elections
Katy educator Eliz Markowitz, the lone Democrat in the eight-person field, out-raised the Republican candidates combined, $294K to $122K, from September 27 through October 26, the period covered by the candidates’ newly filed 8-day-out reports. She is...
Oct 29, 2019 | House Race Analyses, Special Elections
Fifteen candidates are vying to succeed former Rep. Jessica Farrar (D-Houston), and their 8-day-out campaign finance reports show a distinct first tier, at least in terms of resources. Candidates were required to file their 8-day-out reports, disclosing contributions...
