Aug 9, 2020 | House Race Analyses
Dallas Co. was the epicenter of Democrats’ 2018 surge. They flipped five House seats, one Senate seat and one congressional seat. They swept every countywide office. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) doubled up U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, beating him by 33 points....
Aug 2, 2020 | House Race Analyses
Four suburban North Texas districts are at various stages of turning increasingly competitive or outright friendly to Democratic candidates. One flipped in 2018. Two more are poised to flip in 2020, and the fourth may remain just out of reach, even though it, like the...
Jan 25, 2020 | House Race Analyses, Special Elections
Special elections are strange animals, and anything can happen in them (e.g. Laura Thompson becoming the first independent to win a House since 1936), but an Eliz Markowitz victory on Tuesday must be considered an upset were it to occur. Markowitz faces Rosenberg real...
Oct 29, 2019 | House Race Analyses, Special Elections
Katy educator Eliz Markowitz, the lone Democrat in the eight-person field, out-raised the Republican candidates combined, $294K to $122K, from September 27 through October 26, the period covered by the candidates’ newly filed 8-day-out reports. She is...
Oct 29, 2019 | House Race Analyses, Special Elections
Fifteen candidates are vying to succeed former Rep. Jessica Farrar (D-Houston), and their 8-day-out campaign finance reports show a distinct first tier, at least in terms of resources. Candidates were required to file their 8-day-out reports, disclosing contributions...
Nov 28, 2018 | House Race Analyses, Straight-ticket Voting
When Rep. Ron Simmons (R-Carrollton), author of the bill that ends single-punch, straight-party voting in 2020, narrowly lost to Democratic challenger Michelle Beckley, we assumed straight-party voting was the reason. After all, in the largest counties, several...
Nov 8, 2018 | House Race Analyses, Straight-ticket Voting
Dallas was a cradle for the modern Republican Party. Captain J.F. Lucey, a Dallas oilman and nationally prominent Republican, founded the Republican Club of Texas in 1947, which was the forerunner of the current Republican Party of Texas. Republican gubernatorial...
Nov 5, 2018 | Federal Race Analyses, House Race Analyses, Political Climate, Senate Race Analyses
This is the second of two analyses that will attempt to prognosticate Tuesday’s general election. Here we focus on individual races. Our previous analysis examined the state’s political climate entering the election. Borrowing from Monty Python, “That’s no ordinary...
Sep 10, 2018 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate, Senate Race Analyses
The general election is eight weeks away, and early voting begins six weeks from today. Traditionally, we have rated contested elections on a 5-star scale, which one star indicating a very low-interest race with no chance of flipping and five stars indicating a...
Feb 17, 2018 | Campaign Finance, House Race Analyses
One of the three Republicans running to succeed Rep. Byron Cook (R-Corsicana) has several significant advantages in campaign resources over his rivals, and this time he cannot be out-raised or outspent by an incumbent. Two years ago, Cook defeated Corsicana bakery...
Feb 13, 2018 | Campaign Finance, House Race Analyses
Republican primary challenger Damon Rambo out-raised Rep. Dennis Bonnen (R-Angleton), $103K to $51K, during the first 25 days of 2018, but almost all of that money came from one source: Empower Texans PAC. DamonRambo Rep. DennisBonnen Bonnen, an 11-term incumbent,...
Feb 2, 2018 | Campaign Finance, House Race Analyses
Freshman Rep. Lynn Stucky (R-Sanger) narrowly out-raised primary challenger Mark Roy, $109K to $85K, during the last six months of 2017. Added to the $14K he raised at the end of June, Stucky has a nearly $40K lead in total contributions for the election cycle to...
