Four suburban North Texas districts are at various stages of turning increasingly competitive or outright friendly to Democratic candidates. One flipped in 2018. Two more are poised to flip in 2020, and the fourth may remain just out of reach, even though it, like the other three, was bluer than the state two years ago.

When they were drawn in 2011, the four districts ranged between 3.3 and 6.5 percentage points redder than the state as a whole based on the 2010 general election. As late as 2016, three were still 0.7 to 3.2 percentage points redder than the state as a whole, but the fourth had crossed over and was now 2 full percentage points bluer. Following President Trump’s election, all four districts suddenly shifted between 2.6 and 4 percentage points bluer, ending the legislative career of then-Rep. Ron Simmons (R-Lewisville) and creating close calls for Reps. Jeff Leach (R-Allen) and Matt Shaheen (R-Plano). Rep. Lynn Stucky (R-Sanger) won more comfortably, but it was nonetheless the closest race in HD64 in its current configuration.

We project those blue-ward shifts to continue, though not by as much as the last cycle, and rate HD65 and HD66 as Lean Democratic, HD67 as a Toss Up and HD64 as Lean Republican.

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©2020 Texas Election Source LLC