We previously analyzed historical campaign finance data and election results since 2006 to see how open-seat candidates fared in open primary races based on their relative fundraising ranks. Unsurprisingly, we found a strong correlation between fundraising rank and electoral success:

  • 77% of candidates raising the most money either won outright (26%) or advanced to a runoff (51%)
  • 55% of candidates with the second-highest contribution totals either won outright (6%) or advanced to a runoff (55%)
  • 23% of candidates with the third-highest contribution totals advanced to a runoff – none won outright
  • 12% of candidates with the fourth-highest contribution totals made the runoff – again, none won outright; and
  • Less than 5% of candidates placing fifth or lower in fundraising made a runoff with none winning outright.

In that same analysis, we looked at how the open-seat congressional candidates ranked as of their pre-primary campaign finance reports. Today (Saturday), we look at statewide and legislative candidates.

There are 31 races – 1 statewide, 4 Senate and 26 House – that meet our established criteria for inclusion in this analysis,

Subscribers can read the rest of this analysis.

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