We previously analyzed historical campaign finance data and election results since 2006 to see how open-seat candidates fared in open primary races based on their relative fundraising ranks. Unsurprisingly, we found a strong correlation between fundraising rank and electoral success:
- 77% of candidates raising the most money either won outright (26%) or advanced to a runoff (51%)
- 55% of candidates with the second-highest contribution totals either won outright (6%) or advanced to a runoff (55%)
- 23% of candidates with the third-highest contribution totals advanced to a runoff – none won outright
- 12% of candidates with the fourth-highest contribution totals made the runoff – again, none won outright; and
- Less than 5% of candidates placing fifth or lower in fundraising made a runoff with none winning outright.
In that same analysis, we looked at how the open-seat congressional candidates ranked as of their pre-primary campaign finance reports. Today (Saturday), we look at statewide and legislative candidates.
There are 31 races – 1 statewide, 4 Senate and 26 House – that meet our established criteria for inclusion in this analysis,
Subscribers can read the rest of this analysis.
©2022 Texas Election Source LLC
