Historical percentage of the top fundraising candidate to win or advance to a runoff in a significant open-seat primary race.

Since 2006, there have been 145 races that met these criteria:

  • Primary for statewide, legislative or congressional office
  • No incumbent in the race
  • At least three candidates on the ballot, and
  • They are seeking the incumbent party’s nomination, or we judged it to be a potentially competitive race* for the other party’s nominee.

Exactly 100 of these races went to runoffs (69%) while the other 45 were won outright (31%).

We ranked the candidates’ total contributions over the election cycle as of the last campaign finance report filed before the primary election: pre-primary reports for federal candidates and 8-day-out reports for state candidates. We then looked at how those candidates fared in their respective races.

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