We conclude our analysis of potentially competitive Texas House districts with a discussion of South and West Texas. To skip to the punchline, we do not expect any of the seats discussed here to flip.

What’s more interesting here is the potential long-term shifts in partisan lean of a traditional Democratic stronghold. Throughout our series of analyses of potentially competitive House races, nearly every highlighted seat has shifted toward the Democrats – even if they remain friendly to Republicans – over the long term, accelerating in the short term. The opposite is largely true in South Texas.

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