Democratic challenger Joe Biden leads President Trump, 48%-45%, with 5% undecided, according to a new Dallas Morning News/Univ. of Texas-Tyler poll (PDF). Prior UT-Tyler polls have shown Trump leading by two in September, Biden by five in July and a tied race in March. Following the release of the poll, Fivethirtyeight re-calculated its polling average and found Biden leading by a tenth of a point, making Texas the closest race in the presidential contest nationwide.

Biden leads among independents, 51%-29%, with 12% undecided. Undecided respondents leaned toward Trump, 42%-20%, but the sample size (n=41) was extremely small. Just 2% of each candidate’s voters said they “could change my mind” about their presidential choice.

Trump leads among Anglo voters, 65%-30%, including 60%-34% among Anglos with 4-year college degrees. Biden leads among Black voters, 89%-5%, and Hispanic/Latino voters, 69%-21%.

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