Nov 7, 2022 | General Elections, Political Climate
Ordinarily, we preview an election with some analyses – hopefully insightful ones – around the storylines we’re following. This time, the storyline seems quite simple: It’s a bad year for Texas Democrats. They’ve been fighting gravity this entire cycle. The only...
Nov 1, 2022 | Campaign Finance
Statewide and legislative candidates facing general election opposition reported raising $47M and spending north of $72M during the monthlong period covered by the latest campaign finance reports. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke’s...
Nov 1, 2022 | Race Ratings
Our final update to our 2022 race ratings shifts 30 races toward the Republicans and none toward the Democrats. Based on lagging turnout, especially in areas and among demographics key to Democratic successes in 2018 and on a significant Republican financial advantage...
Oct 12, 2022 | Campaign Finance
The governor’s race towers above all others when it comes to raising and spending money this election season. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and challenger Beto O’Rourke (D) accounted for a staggering 70% of all contributions received and 76% of all expenditures made by...
Oct 6, 2022 | Campaign News
Up to this point, our race ratings have been based on each district’s partisan lean in the last two election cycles while ignoring the candidates seeking those districts. That’s why Rep. Tracy King’s (D-Batesville) district has been consistently rated a Toss Up even...
Jul 17, 2022 | Campaign Finance
Note: This report has been updated to reflect significant changes to originally reported figures by Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton’s campaign. The governor’s race (Likely R) is taking the oxygen out of the room, accounting for 65 cents out of every dollar contributed to...
Dec 14, 2021 | Campaign News
Yesterday (Monday) was the deadline to file for partisan nomination or independent candidacy for statewide, legislative, congressional and county offices on the 2022 general election ballot. Today (Tuesday) was the deadline to withdraw that application. Our Crib...
Jun 7, 2021 | Campaign News, House Race Analyses
Associated Republicans of Texas and the Hispanic Voter Network announced they were targeting several Democrat-held House seats “in an effort to expand the map for Republicans in the Texas House.” The six districts are listed below with the general election results:...
Nov 1, 2020 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate
Yesterday (Saturday), we posed two fundamental questions that will be answered Tuesday, or shortly thereafter. We gave our best guess on the first question, whether Joe Biden will become the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas since 1976 (No, but...
Sep 13, 2020 | House Race Analyses
We conclude our analysis of potentially competitive Texas House districts with a discussion of South and West Texas. To skip to the punchline, we do not expect any of the seats discussed here to flip. What’s more interesting here is the potential long-term shifts in...
Sep 2, 2020 | Campaign News
SD30 special: The National Rifle Assoc. Political Victory Fund endorsed Rep. Drew Springer (R-Muenster). HD65: Rep. Michelle Beckley’s (D-Carrollton) campaign released a new ad, “No Bull,” focusing on the recently canceled contract the state had with a firm to do...
Jul 19, 2020 | Campaign News
Texas Election Source has updated 27 race ratings based on the latest polling, July campaign finance reports and primary runoff results. Twenty of those races moved one column toward the Democrats’ advantage. Our complete ratings are located here. Thirteen...
