Nov 1, 2020 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate
Yesterday (Saturday), we posed two fundamental questions that will be answered Tuesday, or shortly thereafter. We gave our best guess on the first question, whether Joe Biden will become the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas since 1976 (No, but...
Sep 13, 2020 | House Race Analyses
We conclude our analysis of potentially competitive Texas House districts with a discussion of South and West Texas. To skip to the punchline, we do not expect any of the seats discussed here to flip. What’s more interesting here is the potential long-term shifts in...
Sep 2, 2020 | Campaign News
SD30 special: The National Rifle Assoc. Political Victory Fund endorsed Rep. Drew Springer (R-Muenster). HD65: Rep. Michelle Beckley’s (D-Carrollton) campaign released a new ad, “No Bull,” focusing on the recently canceled contract the state had with a firm to do...
Jul 19, 2020 | Campaign News
Texas Election Source has updated 27 race ratings based on the latest polling, July campaign finance reports and primary runoff results. Twenty of those races moved one column toward the Democrats’ advantage. Our complete ratings are located here. Thirteen...
Mar 10, 2020 | Campaign News
Heading into last week’s primary elections, we outlined four principal storylines we’d be watching as the results came in. Final official results, and the results of any recounts and contests, are still to come, but we have answers to all the questions we...
Mar 4, 2020 | breaking-news, Campaign News
Final numbers are trickling in from the last counties and precincts. Nearly all of what we knew late last night is still true, although the numbers may have wobbled a bit. A few developments breaking this morning: In the Democratic race for U.S. Senate, Cristina...
Mar 4, 2020 | Campaign News
Slow reporting of numbers – early voting and Election Day – muddled some views that are normally clear much earlier in the evening, but we now have a fairly complete picture of the winners, losers and runoff participants. Vote percentages below are unofficial and as...
Feb 25, 2020 | breaking-news, Campaign Finance
State candidates with primary opposition were required to file their 8-day-out campaign finance reports yesterday (Monday). Much of the drama found in these reports in recent election cycles was missing this year. In 2018, candidates for the House and Senate raised...
Feb 13, 2020 | Campaign News
Early voting for the March 3 primary election begins Tuesday. Federal candidates’ pre-primary reports are due on February 20, and state candidates’ 8-day-out reports are due February 24. Tomorrow (Friday) is the deadline for candidates to file for local offices on the...
Jan 28, 2020 | Campaign News, Special Elections
Republican Gary Gates and Democrats Lorraine Birabil and Anna Eastman cruised to easy victories in today’s special runoff elections for HD28, HD100 and HD148, respectively. The results leave all three seats in the same partisan column as the 2018 general election....
Jan 16, 2020 | Campaign Finance
Note: This report has been updated to correct the names of two contributors to the Jon Francis campaign (HD60). For whatever reason, our initial sorting of contributions on his report mis-aligned the contributor names and amounts. Farris and Jo Ann Wilks each...
Jan 12, 2020 | Campaign News
Wednesday is the deadline for state and local (where required) candidates and officeholders to file their January semiannual campaign finance reports. They typically become available online during the next day. HD28 special: The Gary Gates (R) campaign released a new...
