Up to this point, our race ratings have been based on each district’s partisan lean in the last two election cycles while ignoring the candidates seeking those districts. That’s why Rep. Tracy King’s (D-Batesville) district has been consistently rated a Toss Up even though he drew no opponents.

Our latest model run incorporates longer-term partisan trends for the 219 redrawn legislative and congressional districts and accounts for significant campaign finance disparities. We have also moved to Safe status any seats where a major party candidate is either unopposed or facing solely minor party, independent or write-in opponents.

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