2022 Texas Election Source Race Ratings

Last updated: November 1, 2022

We rate seats based on a seven-point scale from Safe Republican to Safe Democrat based on our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole. We plug our best guess estimate for the average statewide Democratic candidate, measured head-to-head against the Republican candidate, then “float” the districts above or below that percentage based on past history, recent trends and the incumbent’s tendency to over- or under-perform their party’s candidates.

Latest changes:

November 1

  • LTGOV (Patrick): Lean R to Likely R
  • SD15 (Whitmire): Safe D to Likely D
  • SD17 (Huffman): Likely R to Safe R
  • SD18 (Kolkhorst): Likely R to Safe R
  • SD19 (Gutierrez): Likely D to Lean D
  • SD25 (Campbell): Likely R to Safe R
  • SD27 open (LaMantia): Lean D to Toss Up
  • HD33 (Holland): Likely R to Safe R
  • HD34 (Herrero): Lean D to Toss Up
  • HD35 (Longoria): Likely D to Lean D
  • HD37 open (Lopez): Toss Up to Lean R
  • HD41 (Guerra): Likely D to Lean D
  • HD42 (Raymond): Safe D to Likely D
  • HD52 open (Harris): Lean R to Likely R
  • HD54 (Buckley): Lean R to Likely R
  • HD63 open (Bumgarner): Lean R to Likely R
  • HD70 open (Jolly): Lean D to Toss Up
  • HD74 (Morales): Toss Up to Lean R
  • HD99 (Geren): Likely R to Safe R
  • HD102 (Ramos): Safe D to Likely D
  • HD112 (Button): Lean R to Likely R
  • HD118 (Lujan): Toss Up to Lean R
  • HD121 (Allison): Lean R to Likely R
  • HD133 open (DeAyala): Lean R to Likely R
  • CD5 (Gooden): Likely R to Safe R
  • CD10 (McCaul): Likely R to Safe R
  • CD15 open (De la Cruz-Hernandez): Lean R to Likely R
  • CD27 (Cloud): Likely R to Safe R
  • CD28 (Cuellar): Lean D to Toss Up
  • CD34 (Gonzalez): Lean D to Toss Up

October 12

  • HD37 open (Villarreal/Lopez) Lean D to Toss Up

October 5

  • HD23 open (Leo-Wilson) Likely R to Safe R
  • HD31 (Guillen) Likely R to Safe R
  • HD33 (Holland) Safe R to Likely R
  • HD63 open (Bumgarner) Likely R to Lean R
  • HD70 open (Plesa) Toss Up to Lean D
  • HD121 (Allison) Likely R to Lean R
  • HD133 open (DeAyala) Likely R to Lean R
  • CD5 (Gooden) Safe R to Likely R
  • CD15 open (De la Cruz-Hernandez) Toss Up to Lean R
  • CD23 (Gonzales) Lean R to Likely R

Another 23 seats were moved to Safe because a major party candidate was unopposed or facing opposition solely from minor party, independent and/or write-in candidates.

Statewide Offices

Six constitutional executive offices, one Railroad Commissioner, three Supreme Court justices and three judges of the Court of Criminal Appeals are up for election in 2022.

Current makeup of statewide offices is: 27 Republicans, 0 Democrats

Projected makeup in 2023: 27 Republicans, 0 Democrats

Likely Republican
GOV (Abbott-R)
LTGOV (Patrick-R)
COMP (Hegar-R)
LAND open (R)
AGRIC (Miller-R)
SC3 (Lehrmann-R)
SC5 (Huddle-R)
SC9 (Young-R)
CCA2 (Keel-R)
CCA5 (Walker-R)
CCA6 (McClure-R)
Lean Republican
AG (Paxton-R)
Toss-up
None
Lean Democratic
None
Likely Democratic
None

Texas Senate

All 31 members of the Texas Senate are up for election in 2022.

Current makeup of the Texas Senate: 18 Republicans, 13 Democrats

Projected makeup in 2023: 19 Republicans, 12 Democrats

Likely Republican
SD2 (Hall-R)
SD8 (Paxton-R)
SD9 (Hancock-R)
SD12 open (Parker-R)
SD24 open (Flores-R)
Lean Republican
None
Toss-up
SD27 open (LaMantia-D)
Lean Democratic
SD19 (Gutierrez)
SD20 (Hinojosa-D)
Likely Democratic
SD15 (Whitmire-D)
SD21 (Zaffirini-D)

Safe Republicans (14): SD1 (Hughes), SD3 (Nichols), SD4 (Creighton), SD5 (Schwertner), SD7 (Bettencourt), SD10 open (King), SD11 open (Middleton), SD17 (Huffman), SD18 (Kolkhorst), SD22 (Birdwell), SD25 (Campbell), SD28 (Perry), SD30 (Springer), SD31 open (Sparks)

Safe Democrats (7): SD6 (Alvarado), SD13 (Miles), SD14 (Eckhardt), SD16 (Johnson), SD23 (West), SD26 (Menendez), SD29 (Blanco)

Texas House of Representatives

All 150 members of the Texas House of Representatives are up for election in 2022.

Current makeup of the Texas House: 84 Republicans, 66 Democrats.

Projected makeup in 2023: 88 Republicans, 62 Democrats

Likely Republican
HD20 (Wilson-R)
HD26 (Jetton-R)
HD28 (Gates-R)
HD52 open (Harris-R)
HD54 (Buckley-R)
HD55 (Shine-R)
HD61 open (Frazier-R)
HD63 open (Bumgarner-R)
HD65 open (Thimesch-R)
HD66 (Shaheen-R)
HD67 (Leach-R)
HD93 open (Schatzline-R)
HD94 (Tinderholt-R)
HD97 (Goldman-R)
HD108 (Meyer-R)
HD112 (Button-R)
HD121 (Allison-R)
HD122 open (Dorazio-R)
HD129 (Paul-R)
HD132 (Schofield-R)
HD133 open (DeAyala-R)
HD138 (Hull-R)
HD150 (Swanson-R)
Lean Republican
HD37 open (Lopez-R)
HD74 (Morales-D)
HD118 (Lujan)
Toss-up
HD34 (Herrero-D)
HD70 open (Jolly-R)
Lean Democratic
HD35 (Longoria-D)
HD41 (Guerra-D)
Likely Democratic
HD22 open (Hayes-D)
HD39 (Martinez-D)
HD42 (Raymond-D)
HD45 (Zwiener-D)
HD47 (Goodwin-D)
HD76 open (Lalani-D)
HD92 open (Bhojani-D)
HD102 (Ramos-D)
HD105 (Meza-D)
HD115 (Ju. Johnson-D)
HD117 (Cortez-D)
HD125 (Lopez-D)
HD134 (A. Johnson-D)
HD135 (Rosenthal-D)
HD136 (Bucy-D)
HD148 (Moreales Shaw-D)
HD149 (Vo-D)

Safe Republicans (61): HD1 (VanDeaver), HD2 (Slaton), HD3 (C. Bell), HD4 (K. Bell), HD5 (Hefner), HD6 (Schaefer), HD7 (Dean), HD8 (Harris), HD9 (Ashby), HD10 (Harrison), HD11 (Clardy), HD12 (Kacal), HD13 open (Orr), HD14 (Raney), HD15 (Toth), HD16 (Metcalf), HD17 open (Gerdes), HD18 (Bailes), HD19 open (Troxclair), HD21 (Phelan), HD23 open (Leo-Wilson), HD24 (Bonnen), HD25 (Vasut), HD29 (E. Thompson), HD30 (Morrison), HD31 (Guillen), HD32 (Hunter), HD33 (Holland), HD43 (Lozano), HD44 (Kuempel), HD53 (Murr), HD56 (Anderson), HD57 open (Hayes), HD58 (Burns), HD59 (Slawson), HD60 (Rogers), HD62 (Smith), HD64 (Stucky), HD68 (Spiller), HD69 (Frank), HD71 (Lambert), HD72 (Darby), HD73 open (Isaac), HD81 (Landgraf), HD82 (Craddick), HD83 (Burrows),  HD84 open (Tepper), HD85 open (Kitzman), HD86 (Smithee), HD87 (Price), HD88 (K. King), HD89 (Noble), HD91 (Klick), HD96 (Cook), HD98 (Capriglione), HD99 (Geren), HD106 (Patterson), HD126 (Harless), HD127 open (Cunningham), HD128 (Cain), HD130 (Oliverson)

Safe Democrats (42): HD27 (Reynolds), HD36 (Muñoz), HD38 (Gamez), HD40 (Canales), HD46 (Cole), HD48 (Howard), HD49 (Hinojosa), HD50 (Talarico), HD51 open (Flores), HD75 (M. Gonzalez), HD77 (Ortega), HD78 (Moody), HD79 (Ordaz Perez), HD80 (T. King), HD90 (Romero), HD95 (Collier), HD100 open (Jones), HD101 (C. Turner), HD103 (Anchia), HD104 (J. Gonzalez), HD107 (Neave), HD109 (Sherman), HD110 (Y. Davis), HD111 (Rose), HD113 (Bowers), HD114 open (Bryant), HD116 (Martinez Fischer), HD119 (Campos), HD120 (Gervin Hawkins), HD123 (Bernal), HD124 (Garcia), HD131 (Allen), HD137 (Wu), HD139 (Ja. Johnson), HD140 (Walle), HD141 (S. Thompson), HD142 (Dutton), HD143 (Hernandez), HD144 (Perez), HD145 (C. Morales), HD146 (Thierry), HD147 (Jones)

 

Texas Congressional Delegation

All 36 existing and two new seats in the Texas delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election in 2022. Neither U.S. Senate seat is on the ballot.

Current makeup of the Texas Congressional delegation: 23 Republicans, 13 Democrats in the House and 2 Republican U.S. Senators.

Projected makeup in 2023: 26 Republicans, 12 Democrats in the House and 2 Republican U.S. Senators

Likely Republican
CD3 open (Self-R)
CD12 (Granger-R)
CD15 open (De la Cruz-Hernandez-R)
CD22 (Nehls-R)
CD23 (Gonzales-R)
CD24 (Van Duyne-R)
Lean Republican
None
Toss-up
CD28 (Cuellar-D)
CD34 (Flores-R)
Lean Democratic
None
Likely Democratic
CD7 (Fletcher-D)

Safe Republicans (19): CD1 open (Moran), CD2 (Crenshaw), CD4 (Fallon), CD5 (Gooden), CD6 (Ellzey), CD8 open (Luttrell), CD10 (McCaul), CD11 (Pfluger), CD13 (Jackson), CD14 (Weber), CD17 (Sessions), CD19 (Arrington), CD21 (Roy), CD25 (Williams), CD26 (Burgess), CD27 (Cloud), CD31 (Carter), CD36 (Babin), CD38 open (Hunt)

Safe Democrats (10): CD9 (Green), CD16 (Escobar), CD18 (Jackson Lee), CD20 (Castro), CD29 (Garcia), CD30 open (Crockett), CD32 (Allred), CD33 (Veasey), CD35 open (Casar), CD37 (Doggett)

©2022 Texas Election Source LLC

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