2022 Texas Election Source Race Ratings

Last updated: November 15, 2021

We rate seats based on a seven-point scale from Safe Republican to Safe Democrat based on our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole. We plug our best guess estimate for the average statewide Democratic candidate, measured head-to-head against the Republican candidate, then “float” the districts above or below that percentage based on past history, recent trends and the incumbent’s tendency to over- or under-perform their party’s candidates.

These are our initial ratings based solely on the 2020 general election results for the newly drawn districts. We will update these ratings as appropriate when additional analyses are completed before the primary elections.

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