Nov 1, 2022 | Race Ratings
Our final update to our 2022 race ratings shifts 30 races toward the Republicans and none toward the Democrats. Based on lagging turnout, especially in areas and among demographics key to Democratic successes in 2018 and on a significant Republican financial advantage...
Oct 6, 2022 | Campaign News
Up to this point, our race ratings have been based on each district’s partisan lean in the last two election cycles while ignoring the candidates seeking those districts. That’s why Rep. Tracy King’s (D-Batesville) district has been consistently rated a Toss Up even...
Feb 9, 2022 | Campaign News
Early voting for the March 1 primary begins Monday. AG (Lean R): The National Rifle Assoc. endorsed Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R), who received an A+ grade from the group. The group rated his primary challengers Land Comm. George P. Bush (R) as A, U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert...
Jan 6, 2022 | Campaign News
LTGOV (Lean R): The Texas Medical Assoc. TEXPAC endorsed Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R). AG (Lean R): Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) has petitioned the Texas Supreme Court to rule that he and his office have sovereign immunity from claims under the Texas Whistleblower Act. Two...
Dec 2, 2021 | Campaign News
Filing for partisan nomination or an independent candidacy for the 2022 general election continues through December 13. SD11 open (Likely R): Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC endorsed Rep. Mayes Middleton (R-Wallisville) for the seat being vacated by Sen. Larry Taylor...
Nov 16, 2021 | Campaign News
LTGOV (Lean R): Rep. Michelle Beckley (D-Carrollton) announced she would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R). Beckley had been running for Congress but suspended her campaign shortly after the new maps were approved. No sitting state...
Nov 1, 2020 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate
Yesterday (Saturday), we posed two fundamental questions that will be answered Tuesday, or shortly thereafter. We gave our best guess on the first question, whether Joe Biden will become the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas since 1976 (No, but...
Oct 28, 2020 | Campaign Finance
Yesterday’s report about campaign finance results for key House races was missing details about a number of Democratic candidates’ 8-day-out reports. To be clear, they filed their reports on time, but the contribution and expenditure details were not yet available...
Oct 27, 2020 | breaking-news, Campaign Finance
The battle for the Texas House got expensive. Candidates in competitive seats collectively raised $39.3M during the past month, much of through in-kind contributions from a handful of sources. Republicans, bolstered by huge spending by Texans for Lawsuit Reform...
Oct 20, 2020 | Campaign News
Early voting: Yesterday (Monday) was the seventh day of the early voting period, which typically beings on a Monday but this year started on a Tuesday. Looking at the 15 counties with the most registered voters, 3.25M voters have cast their ballots so far,...
Oct 18, 2020 | Political Climate
Our latest model run moves the presidential race in Texas to Toss Up and projects a narrow Democratic majority in the Texas House when the Legislature convenes in January. Another four Republican-held House seats are within 2 percentage points of potentially adding to...
Oct 13, 2020 | Campaign News
Early voting has begun across Texas for the November 3 general election and continues through October 30. By most accounts, turnout is off to a torrid start. The Harris Co. Clerk’s office tweeted that 128K people voted in person today, plus 41K absentee ballots...
