Our latest model run moves the presidential race in Texas to Toss Up and projects a narrow Democratic majority in the Texas House when the Legislature convenes in January. Another four Republican-held House seats are within 2 percentage points of potentially adding to that majority.
The new model run produces no ratings changes in the Senate, where we continue to project a one-seat gain for Democrats. The model projects a five-seat gain for Democrats in the congressional delegation, which would split it 18-18 when the new Congress convenes. An additional three Republican-held seats are projected to be within 1.2 percentage points of flipping.
President Trump is currently projected to win the state by 2 points over Democratic challenger Joe Biden, 50.5%-48.5%. He carried the state by 9 points, 52%-43%, in 2016. The projected 2020 margin is slightly tighter than U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R) 50.9%-48.3% victory over then-U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) in 2018.
A total of 20 races’ ratings moved one column toward the Democrats. Four moved toward the Republicans. Our complete race ratings can be found here.
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