‘Late-train’ Money Favors Federal Races

“Late-train” money is flowing into close Congressional races but largely ignoring state races as the election campaign nears its end. Part of this disparity is due to the dates covered. Congressional candidates began disclosing contributions in “24-hour” reports on...

Identifying Districts Potentially in Play, Part 7

We have been exploring seats potentially in play by looking at specific metrics defining not only how a district voted in the most recent election but also how those voting patterns have changed over time. We also looked at fundraising totals and their historic impact...

Key House Race Campaign Finance Results

Note: This report has been updated since we issued our Breaking News alert. State, legislative and local (where required) candidates facing general election opponents were required to file 30-day-out campaign finance reports yesterday. Most of those have become...

Identifying Districts Potentially in Play, Part 5

Last week we explored the shift in straight-party voting advantage in Republican-held districts toward the Democrats. Today we explore each party’s roles in those shifts. Between 2012 and 2016, Democrats either cut into the Republican straight-party advantage or...

Ads, Endorsements and News for October 1

GOV: The campaign of Gov. Greg Abbott (R) released a two-minute ad, “Hope: Julie’s Story,” telling the story of a mother whose son was paralyzed in the Sutherland Springs mass shooting. LTGOV: The campaign of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) released a new ad focused on...

Abbott, Valdez Debate and Other News for September 28

The lone scheduled debate between Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D) was held Friday evening in an empty hall at the LBJ Presidential Library in Austin. Guests of the campaign watched in an auditorium several floors below the candidates...

Identifying Districts Potentially in Play, Part 4

We continue our look at districts potentially in play in November with our first statewide exploration of straight-party voting trends in Republican-held districts. Prior analyses have looked at districts that are bluer than the state as a whole, districts won by...