This is the second of two analyses that will attempt to prognosticate Tuesday’s general election. Here we focus on individual races. Our previous analysis examined the state’s political climate entering the election.
Borrowing from Monty Python, “That’s no ordinary gubernatorial election.” Early voting much more closely resembled a presidential election, and more early votes were cast than total votes in 2014, including Election Day. So we can toss gubernatorial election year assumptions out the proverbial window. Unfortunately, almost all of the polling done to date was based on turnout assumptions that we just tossed out the window.
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