A new Morning Consult poll conducted July 17-26 shows presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump, 47%-45%, in Texas, which is within the poll’s ±1.9% margin of error. The race has shifted 9 points since late May’s “10-day moving average of vote share among likely voters.” No other information or crosstabs were provided.

In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton did not lead Trump in a single poll in Texas. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has now led Trump in six polls so far, albeit within the margin of error in five of those. Clinton’s highest percentage support in any 2016 poll was 43%, and she was at 40% or lower in more than 80% of polls conducted in the state. So far this year, Biden’s peak has been 48%, and he has been above 40% in every poll in the field during 2020.

Trump will be in Midland and Odessa for campaign and fundraising events tomorrow (Wednesday), his 16th trip to the state since his inauguration.

HD67 (Toss up): The Richardson Police Officers Assoc. endorsed Rep. Jeff Leach (R-Allen).

CD4 open (Safe Republican): Candidates seeking to replace former U.S. Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Heath) on the general election ballot were required to file pre-convention campaign finance reports yesterday (Monday). These reports disclose contributions received and expenditures made between either July 1 or the date the campaign committee was formed and July 17. Just five of the candidates filed reports:

  • Floyd McLendon Jr. has $59K on hand after raising and spending less than $1K.
  • Jason Ross has $54K on hand after raising $13K and spending $10K. He has raised $72K since declaring his candidacy.
  • Travis Ransom has $43K on hand after raising $5K and spending $2K.
  • Bob Worthen has $14K on hand after raising $6K and spending $27K. He loaned his campaign $35K.
  • Pat Fallon (R-Frisco) reported cash on hand, contributions or expenditures.

The other candidates presumably did not meet the contribution or expenditure threshold for filing a report.

County and precinct chairs are scheduled to meet August 8 to choose the party’s replacement nominee, who will face Democrat Russell Foster in the general election.

CD23 open (Lean Democratic): Tony Gonzales II has won the Republican runoff over Raul Reyes Jr. by 46 votes. We had Gonzales winning by 10 votes but have since learned that Winkler Co. inadvertently double-counted early votes. A spokesperson for the Reyes campaign said the race “warrants a recount.”

Argyle: Mayor Donald Moser is resigning to undergo “intense treatment” for cancer. He was first elected in 2017 and re-elected last year.

Recent Presidential Polls

  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Quinnipiac Univ. (July)
  • Biden 48, Trump 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (July)
  • Trump 48, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Politics Project (July)
  • Biden 45, Trump 44 – Fox News (June)
  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June)
  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May)
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May)
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April)
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April)
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March)
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February)
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February)
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February)
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February)
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January)
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019)
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019)
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019)

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls.

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