Nov 1, 2022 | Race Ratings
Our final update to our 2022 race ratings shifts 30 races toward the Republicans and none toward the Democrats. Based on lagging turnout, especially in areas and among demographics key to Democratic successes in 2018 and on a significant Republican financial advantage...
Oct 6, 2022 | Campaign News
Up to this point, our race ratings have been based on each district’s partisan lean in the last two election cycles while ignoring the candidates seeking those districts. That’s why Rep. Tracy King’s (D-Batesville) district has been consistently rated a Toss Up even...
May 25, 2022 | Campaign News
Just over 1.4M Texans – 8.1% of registered voters – cast ballots in the primary runoff election, according to unofficial results reported by the Secretary of State’s office. Republican voters nearly out-numbered Democratic voters 2-to-1. A total of 927K votes were...
May 25, 2022 | Election Night Returns
As runoff elections go, it was a pretty good night to be an incumbent, or a former incumbent. Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) and Railroad Comm. Wayne Christian (R) easily turned aside their challengers to secure nominations for a third and second term, respectively. Paxton...
May 22, 2022 | Campaign Finance
Runoff candidates who receive more than $1,890 from a single source on or after May 15 must disclose those contributions in daily pre-election reports (formerly known as telegram reports). These “late train” contributions typically come from a handful of major donors...
May 17, 2022 | Campaign Finance
State candidates facing runoffs were required to file their runoff campaign finance reports yesterday (Monday). These reports disclose contributions received and expenditures made between February 10 and May 14. Most reports were available online today (Tuesday), and...
May 15, 2022 | Campaign News
Early voting for the May 24 runoff election begins tomorrow (Monday) and runs through Friday. State candidates’ runoff campaign finance reports are due tomorrow and likely will become available online Tuesday. These reports disclose contributions received and...
Apr 12, 2022 | Campaign News
CD34 special (Lean R): Ahead of tomorrow’s (Wednesday’s) filing deadline, three candidates have filed: South Padre Island nurse Juana Cantu-Cabrera (R), who finished fourth in the March primary with 7% of the vote Los Indios respiratory care practitioner Mayra Flores...
Mar 30, 2022 | Campaign News
AG (Lean R): The Texas AFL-CIO endorsed Joe Jaworski (D) in the runoff over Rochelle Garza. The union did not endorse in the primary. LAND open (Likely R): The Texas AFL-CIO endorsed Jay Kleberg (D) in the runoff over Sandragrace Martinez. The union previously...
Mar 20, 2022 | By the Numbers
83% Winning percentage of runoff candidates who finished 10% or more ahead of their challenger in the primary election since 2002. There have been 204 “open” primary runoff elections for state, legislative and federal offices since 2002, and the candidate who finished...
Mar 2, 2022 | Political Climate
Note: We will not have percentages for some races, including all statewide races, because of delays in counting Harris Co.’s votes (and some others including Dallas and Tarrant Cos.). Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) cruised to their...
Feb 27, 2022 | Campaign Finance, House Race Analyses, Senate Race Analyses, Statewide Race Analyses
We previously analyzed historical campaign finance data and election results since 2006 to see how open-seat candidates fared in open primary races based on their relative fundraising ranks. Unsurprisingly, we found a strong correlation between fundraising rank and...