Winning percentage of runoff candidates who finished 10% or more ahead of their challenger in the primary election since 2002.

There have been 204 “open” primary runoff elections for state, legislative and federal offices since 2002, and the candidate who finished first in the primary election has won 60% of them. “Open” runoffs do not have an incumbent on the ballot, though the “open” runoff winner might ultimately face an incumbent.

As we have before,  we looked at the winning percentages of first-place candidates based on whether they received more or less than 40% of the vote in their respective primaries and whether they finished more or less than 10% ahead of the second-place candidate. As they did in 2018, the 2020 runoff results tracked very closely with the historical averages.

Since 2002, first-place candidates won:

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