Revisiting Our Election Predictions

Now that most of the dust has settled, we take a look back at our predictions about the overall state climate and specific legislative and congressional races. We’ll take each of our five predictions in order. 1. Republicans sweep statewide races, including the...

‘Late-train’ Money Favors Federal Races

“Late-train” money is flowing into close Congressional races but largely ignoring state races as the election campaign nears its end. Part of this disparity is due to the dates covered. Congressional candidates began disclosing contributions in “24-hour” reports on...

Key Statewide and Senate Race Campaign Finance Results

Opposed state and legislative candidates were required to file 8-day-out campaign finance reports yesterday (Monday). These reports include contributions received and expenditures made between September 28 and October 27. We are in the process of updating our Crib...

Endorsements, Ads and Other News for October 19

Early Voting begins Monday for the November 6 general election and runs through November 2. GOV: The Corpus Christi Caller-Times endorsed Gov. Greg Abbott (R). LTGOV: The Corpus Christi Caller-Times endorsed Democratic challenger Mike Collier over Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick...

Identifying Districts Potentially in Play, Part 7

We have been exploring seats potentially in play by looking at specific metrics defining not only how a district voted in the most recent election but also how those voting patterns have changed over time. We also looked at fundraising totals and their historic impact...

Identifying Districts Potentially in Play, Part 6

Back in July, as part of our series of analyses identifying districts potentially in play, we found that a challenging party’s candidate raised at least half as much as the incumbent party’s candidate in 90% of the Texas legislative and congressional seats that were...

Campaign Finance Reports Due and Other News for October 9

Campaign Finance: State, legislative and local (where required) candidates facing general election opponents are required to file 30-day-out campaign finance reports today (Tuesday). These reports are expected to be available online sometime tomorrow (Wednesday), at...

New Senate Poll and Other News for October 8

A new Emerson Coll. “e-poll” finds U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 47%-42%, and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 53%-33%. In August, Emerson Coll. found Cruz leading, 38%-37%, and Abbott...