Nov 1, 2020 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate
Yesterday (Saturday), we posed two fundamental questions that will be answered Tuesday, or shortly thereafter. We gave our best guess on the first question, whether Joe Biden will become the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas since 1976 (No, but...
Oct 27, 2020 | breaking-news, Campaign Finance
The battle for the Texas House got expensive. Candidates in competitive seats collectively raised $39.3M during the past month, much of through in-kind contributions from a handful of sources. Republicans, bolstered by huge spending by Texans for Lawsuit Reform...
Oct 18, 2020 | Political Climate
Our latest model run moves the presidential race in Texas to Toss Up and projects a narrow Democratic majority in the Texas House when the Legislature convenes in January. Another four Republican-held House seats are within 2 percentage points of potentially adding to...
Oct 13, 2020 | Campaign News
Early voting has begun across Texas for the November 3 general election and continues through October 30. By most accounts, turnout is off to a torrid start. The Harris Co. Clerk’s office tweeted that 128K people voted in person today, plus 41K absentee ballots...
Oct 6, 2020 | Campaign Finance
Statewide and legislative candidates facing general election opposition reported raising nearly $27M since July 1. Democrats accounted for $12.4M of that figure, and Republican candidates raised $14.6M. Sixteen challengers out-raised their incumbent opponents for the...
Sep 25, 2020 | Campaign News
Single-punch, straight-party voting is back … for now. With 17 days to go before voters will begin going to the polls (assuming that lawsuit fails), a federal judge has issued a preliminary injunction against enforcing a state law, enacted in 2017, that eliminated the...
Sep 24, 2020 | Campaign News
SD30 special (Safe Republican): Early voting ends tomorrow (Friday) for the September 29 special election. Through yesterday (Wednesday), nearly 34K people have voted early in person or by mail. RRC open (Lean Republican): Democratic nominee Chrysta Castañeda’s...
Sep 2, 2020 | Campaign News
SD30 special: The National Rifle Assoc. Political Victory Fund endorsed Rep. Drew Springer (R-Muenster). HD65: Rep. Michelle Beckley’s (D-Carrollton) campaign released a new ad, “No Bull,” focusing on the recently canceled contract the state had with a firm to do...
Aug 29, 2020 | House Race Analyses
We continue our series of analyses of competitive, or potentially competitive, legislative seats with an exploration of the I-35 corridor from Bell Co. to Bexar Co. Republican Targets HD45 (Lean Democratic): Rep. Erin Zwiener (D-Driftwood) won this open seat in 2018,...
Aug 3, 2020 | Campaign News
Former President Barack Obama released his “first wave” of 2020 endorsements, which included 27 Texas House and U.S. House incumbents, challengers and open-seat candidates: House incumbents Erin Zwiener (HD45), James Talarico (HD52), Jessica González (HD104), Terry...
Jul 16, 2020 | Campaign Finance
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) reported more cash on hand ($38.2M) than all of the Republican legislative incumbents and candidates on the 2020 general election ballot combined ($32.1M) and all of the Republican congressional incumbents and candidates on the 2020 general...
Jul 15, 2020 | Campaign News, Runoff Elections
Voters filled most of the remaining spots on the general election ballot, but a handful of races remained too close to call. Four legislative incumbents out of six fell: Lorraine Birabil (D-Dallas) lost to Jasmine Crockett, 50.5%-49.5%, after the challenger won...
