The draft map redrawing House districts was introduced today and scheduled for a public hearing on Monday. House Bill 1 by Rep. Todd Hunter (R-Corpus Christi) is the first step in the legislative process and is less likely to be a final product than the other chamber’s bill.

Broadly, the proposed map would increase the number of Republican-friendly districts. According to several analyses, the number of districts where Anglos comprise a majority of the voting-eligible population would increase by six. The number of Hispanic/Latino-majority districts and Black-majority districts would each decrease by three. The number of districts that would have been carried by President Trump would increase to 86, up 10 from the number of districts he carried in 2020.

The proposal would pair the following incumbents:

  • HD7 – Reps. Jay Dean (R-Longview) and Chris Paddie (R-Marshall) – Paddie is retiring
  • HD9 – Reps. Trent Ashby (R-Lufkin) and James White (R-Hillister) – White is running for statewide office
  • HD12 – Reps. Kyle Kacal (R-College Station) and Ben Leman (R-Iola) – Leman is retiring
  • HD19 – Reps. Kyle Biedermann (R-Fredericksburg) and Terry Wilson (R-Marble Falls) – Biedermann owns property in an adjacent open district
  • HD26 – Reps. Jacey Jetton (R-Angleton) and Phil Stephenson (R-Wharton)
  • HD61 – Reps. Phil King (R-Weatherford) and Glenn Rogers (R-Graford) – King is running for Senate
  • HD63 – Reps. Michelle Beckley (D-Carrollton) and Tan Parker (R-Flower Mound) – both are seeking other offices
  • HD77 – Reps. Claudia Ordaz-Perez (D-El Paso) and Lina Ortega (D-El Paso), and
  • HD108 – Reps. Morgan Meyer (R-Dallas) and John Turner (D-Dallas) – Turner is retiring.

El Paso Co. no longer has the population to support five full districts, so a pairing of incumbents here was inevitable.

The proposal places six incumbents into districts that would be friendlier to the other party. According to an analysis of ORVS scores by Republican consultant and data nerd Derek Ryan:

  • Erin Zwiener (D-Driftwood) – 70% Republican
  • Ryan Guillen (D-Rio Grande City) – 59% Republican
  • John Turner (D-Dallas) were he seeking re-election – 57% Republican
  • Michelle Beckley (D-Carrollton) were she seeking re-election – 57% Republican
  • James Talarico (D-Round Rock) – 56% Republican; and
  • Jeff Cason (R-Bedford) – 38% Republican.

Expect the map to change as individual legislators and delegations seek agreements to improve their districts.

LAND open: Spring environmental compliance inspector Colin Blood established a campaign committee for a potential run for the office being vacated by Comm. George P. Bush (R). Based on his social media accounts, it appears he would run as a Republican.

HD99: Fort Worth operations manager Jason Ellis established a campaign committee for a potential primary challenge of Rep. Charlie Geren (R-Fort Worth).

HD122: Former San Antonio council member Elisa Chan announced she has formed an exploratory committee for a potential run for HD122 if Rep. Lyle Larson (R-San Antonio) does not seek re-election. Chan previously indicated she would run if Larson retired. She resigned during her third council term to run unsuccessfully for the 2014 Republican nomination for SD25 (24%). Former Bexar Co. Dist. Atty. Nico LaHood, who was a Democrat while in office, is also considering entering the Republican primary for the seat.

CD28: Universal City Air Force veteran Steven Fowler announced he would challenge U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) as a Republican. Fowler unsuccessfully challenged former U.S. Rep. Joe Barton (R-Ennis) in the 2016 Republican primary for CD6.

Illegal Voting Penalties: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added “legislation increasing the penalties for illegal voting that were reduced in Senate Bill 1 that passed” during the second special session. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) expressed his support and said provisions the “House added last minute … went under the radar” until he, Abbott and Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) “found it.” In a statement, Speaker Dade Phelan (R) said it was passed “after both chambers and the Office of the Attorney General thoroughly reviewed and weighed in on the bill.” Phelan said the House will instead focus on redistricting. “Now is not the time to re-litigate.”

Note: This report has been updated to correct factual errors.

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