Oct 19, 2018 | Political Climate
We have been exploring seats potentially in play by looking at specific metrics defining not only how a district voted in the most recent election but also how those voting patterns have changed over time. We also looked at fundraising totals and their historic impact...
Oct 17, 2018 | Political Climate
Back in July, as part of our series of analyses identifying districts potentially in play, we found that a challenging party’s candidate raised at least half as much as the incumbent party’s candidate in 90% of the Texas legislative and congressional seats that were...
Oct 16, 2018 | Political Climate
Most of the national attention, when it has turned to Texas this year, has been focused on U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) and his challenge of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Polls have consistently shown him trailing by just single-digits in a state that hasn’t sent a...
Oct 3, 2018 | Political Climate
Last week we explored the shift in straight-party voting advantage in Republican-held districts toward the Democrats. Today we explore each party’s roles in those shifts. Between 2012 and 2016, Democrats either cut into the Republican straight-party advantage or...
Sep 27, 2018 | Political Climate
We continue our look at districts potentially in play in November with our first statewide exploration of straight-party voting trends in Republican-held districts. Prior analyses have looked at districts that are bluer than the state as a whole, districts won by...
Sep 26, 2018 | Political Climate
Secretary of State Rolando Pablos said a record 15.6M Texans are registered to vote. With two weeks left before the registration deadline, the number of registered voters is already more than 500K higher than the number registered for the 2016 general election and...
Sep 18, 2018 | Political Climate
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leads U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 54%-45%, among “likely voters,” says a new poll by Quinnipiac University (PDF). This is just the second significant poll to show Cruz over 50% this cycle. Prior Quinnipiac polls have shown Cruz with a...
Sep 11, 2018 | Federal Race Analyses, Political Climate
Traditionally, we have rated contested elections on a 5-star scale, which one star indicating a very low-interest race with no chance of flipping and five stars indicating a high-interest race with a relatively high likelihood of flipping. Our Crib Sheets still...
Sep 10, 2018 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate, Senate Race Analyses
The general election is eight weeks away, and early voting begins six weeks from today. Traditionally, we have rated contested elections on a 5-star scale, which one star indicating a very low-interest race with no chance of flipping and five stars indicating a...
Jul 23, 2018 | Political Climate
Today we continue our exploration of districts that may be in play in the general election by looking at the contribution totals of the candidates as of their July semiannual (state) and July quarterly (federal) campaign finance reports. Since 2004, 62 Texas...
Jul 19, 2018 | Campaign Finance, Political Climate
In 2014, Democrats and their donors aimed high, and they missed badly. By this point in that election cycle, Democratic general election nominees running for statewide, legislative and federal office had raised a total of $49.3M. Then-Sen. Wendy Davis (D-Fort Worth),...
Jul 12, 2018 | Political Climate
Today we continue our exploration of districts that may be in play in the general election by looking at districts held by Republicans but carried by Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016. National news outlets and pundits have used the 2016...
