Apr 28, 2020 | Political Climate
Using our formulas for calculating how much redder or bluer a district is than the state as a whole and plugging the recent Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll’s spread in the presidential race into the model, we have our early projection of the average Democratic...
Apr 26, 2020 | Political Climate
President Trump leads presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, 49%-44%, among registered voters, according to a new Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll (PDF). Trump led Biden in a hypothetical matchup by 7 points in the November 2019 UT/TT poll and by 4 points in the...
Jun 17, 2019 | Campaign News, Political Climate
A new Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows a fairly evenly divided electorate that has not moved much since October. We will have more to say about the poll and its potential implications for 2020 once the crosstabs are released later this week. For now, here are...
Nov 13, 2018 | General Elections, Political Climate
Now that most of the dust has settled, we take a look back at our predictions about the overall state climate and specific legislative and congressional races. We’ll take each of our five predictions in order. 1. Republicans sweep statewide races, including the...
Nov 8, 2018 | General Elections, Political Climate
Texas, which ranked last out of the 50 states in turnout in the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections, appears to rank around 35th this year. An estimated 46% of voting-eligible Texans cast ballots for a U.S. Senate candidate, a significant jump from the 28% who voted for...
Nov 5, 2018 | Federal Race Analyses, House Race Analyses, Political Climate, Senate Race Analyses
This is the second of two analyses that will attempt to prognosticate Tuesday’s general election. Here we focus on individual races. Our previous analysis examined the state’s political climate entering the election. Borrowing from Monty Python, “That’s no ordinary...
Nov 4, 2018 | Political Climate, Statewide Race Analyses, Straight-ticket Voting
This is the first of two analyses that will attempt to prognosticate Tuesday’s general election. Here we focus on the overall political climate. Our next, shorter, analysis will look at individual races. 2018’s Place in History It would be easy to say that we are...
Oct 31, 2018 | Political Climate
Voters are generally more optimistic about the direction of the country and the state than just before other recent elections, according to the latest Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll (PDF). Forty-two percent of respondents believe the nation is headed in the right...
Oct 29, 2018 | breaking-news, Political Climate
Early voting continues through Friday. Today (Monday) was Day 8. Through the first seven days, just under 3M people – 24.3% of registered voters – have cast ballots in person and by mail in the 30 counties with the most registered voters. Another 600K votes cast in...
Oct 29, 2018 | Campaign News, Political Climate
The U.S. Senate race has tightened a bit, according to a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll. U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) has nearly halved a 9-point gap in three weeks, narrowing U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R) to 51%-46% from 54%-45%. The poll also finds former Dallas Co....
Oct 26, 2018 | Political Climate
A new Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll finds U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 51%-45%. Libertarian nominee Neal Dikeman polls at 2%. The poll finds other statewide Republicans leading their respective challengers: Greg Abbott (R)...
Oct 20, 2018 | Political Climate
A record 15.79M Texans are registered to vote, according to the Secretary of State’s office, which released voter registration totals by counties today (Friday). The number of registered voters increased 3.6% since the March primary, as at least 544K Texans...
