U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leads U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 54%-45%, among “likely voters,” says a new poll by Quinnipiac University (PDF). This is just the second significant poll to show Cruz over 50% this cycle. Prior Quinnipiac polls have shown Cruz with a six-point lead (July), an 11-point lead (May) and a three-point lead (March), but those were polls of “Texas voters,” which we take to mean registered voters. This time, the pollsters specifically asked respondents on their likelihood to vote and included only “likely voters.”
U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke
U.S. Sen. Ted
Cruz
Cruz’s overall favorability rating is 52/43 and his overall job approval rating is 53/44. O’Rourke’s overall favorability rating is 43/42. Just 14% of respondents “haven’t heard enough” about O’Rourke to form an opinion, demonstrating that he has been successful in boosting his name identification in recent months.
The same poll shows Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 58%-39%. Abbott’s overall favorability rating is 60/33 while Valdez’s is 28/28. More than two out of five respondents “haven’t heard enough” about Valdez to form an opinion.
Consistent with other recent polls, Cruz trails Abbott in favorability by about 10 points. Abbott’s lead over Valdez (+19) is 10 points larger than Cruz’s lead over O’Rourke. “Independent” voters have a slightly unfavorable view of Cruz (44/53) and a fairly favorable view of O’Rourke (51/34), but they only favor O’Rourke slightly, 51%-47%. Cruz leads among men, 57%-42%, and among women, 50%-48%. Hispanic/Latino “likely voters” favor O’Rourke by just 9 points (54%-45%). Abbott leads Valdez, 49%-45%, among Hispanic/Latino voters.
The poll shows respondents split evenly, 49/49, in their assessment of President Trump’s job performance. Men (54/44) and women (44/54) are exactly opposed, while “independents” view Trump unfavorably on balance (40/58). Nearly half of all self-identified Democratic respondents and respondents under age 35 said they have “become more politically active” since Trump’s election.
The poll of 807 “likely Texas voters” was conducted via landlines and mobile phones with live interviewers and was in the field September 11-17. The stated margin of error is ±4.1%. The margin of error for subsamples, such as Hispanic/Latino voters, is higher. The partisan breakdown of respondents was 35% Republican, 26% Democratic and 33% “independent.”
Recent polls and our reports about them:
- Quinnipiac Univ. (Sept.): Cruz 54-45, Abbott 58-39 (“Quinnipiac Poll: Cruz by 9, Abbott by 19“)
- CBS-11/Dixie Strategies (Sept.): Cruz 46-42, Abbott 53-34 (“Another Poll Shows Slender Cruz Lead“)
- Crosswind Texas Pulse (Sept.): Cruz 47-44, Abbott 52-39 (“Another Poll Shows Slender Cruz Lead“)
- Emerson Coll.* (August): Cruz 38-37, Abbott 48-28 (“One Debate On, Another Off and Other News for August 27“)
- NBC/Marist Coll. (August): Cruz 49-45, Abbott 56-37 (“Poll: Cruz Up 4, Abbott Up 19“)
- Public Policy Polling (August): Cruz 46-42 (“Texas Drops to 30th and Other Election News for August 7“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (July): Cruz 49-43, Abbott 51-38 (“Pair of Statewide Polls Show Double-digit Leads for Abbott“)
- Texas Lyceum (July): Cruz 41-39, Abbott 47-31 (“Pair of Statewide Polls Show Double-digit Leads for Abbott“)
- Gravis (July): Cruz 51-42, Abbott 51-41 (“4 Democratic Challengers Top $1M and Other News for July 9“)
- UT/Texas Tribune (June): Cruz 41-36, Abbott 44-32 (“8 File for SD19 and Other Election News for June 25“)
- CBS/YouGov (June): Cruz 50-40 (“Gloves Off in SD19, New SEN Poll and More News for June 24“)
- End Citizens United (June): Cruz 49-43 (“Two Democrats Release Favorable Internal Polls“)
- Public Policy Polling (May): Cruz 48-42 (“Another SEN Poll and Other News for June 6“)
- Baselice (May): Cruz 48-36 (“New Baselice Survey and Election News for July 5“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (May): Cruz 50-39, Abbott 53-34 (“Poll: Double-digit Leads for Cruz, Abbott“)
- JMC Analytics (May): Cruz 47-40, Abbott 48-36 or 50-39 (“New Poll Suggests Strong Name ID for Independent Candidate“)
- Quinnipiac Univ. (April): Cruz 47-44, Abbott 49-40 or 48-41 (“Quinnipiac: Cruz, Abbott Lead by Single Digits“)
We will repost this list with additional polls as we get closer to Election Day.
* We have serious reservations about the Emerson poll and included it in our reports, and on this list, solely because it received national news attention.
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