Nov 1, 2022 | Race Ratings
Our final update to our 2022 race ratings shifts 30 races toward the Republicans and none toward the Democrats. Based on lagging turnout, especially in areas and among demographics key to Democratic successes in 2018 and on a significant Republican financial advantage...
Aug 23, 2022 | Campaign News
The filing deadline has passed for the last set of candidates to make the general election ballot, except their names won’t actually be on it. Seven candidates qualified as certified write-in candidates for statewide and congressional offices: GOV: Leander consultant...
Nov 4, 2020 | General Elections
Democrats have long maintained that higher turnout is the key to turning the state blue. It didn’t happen. The blue wave of 2018 crashed against the red seawall of rural and exurban Texas, and Republicans held their ground in the suburbs against spirited and...
Nov 2, 2020 | Campaign News
Election Day is finally here. Our live coverage will begin at 7 p.m. at txelects.com/live. In addition to the results and analysis we normally provide, we’ve added a “scoreboard” powered by the Texas Tribune and its partner Decision Desk HQ. The scoreboard has been...
Oct 27, 2020 | Campaign Finance, Campaign News
State candidates in contested races raised nearly $53.5M during the past month, of which $39.3M went to candidates in competitive state House races (We cover the House in detail here.). Our Crib Sheets have been fully updated. Candidates with general election...
Oct 18, 2020 | Political Climate
Our latest model run moves the presidential race in Texas to Toss Up and projects a narrow Democratic majority in the Texas House when the Legislature convenes in January. Another four Republican-held House seats are within 2 percentage points of potentially adding to...
Oct 11, 2020 | Political Climate
With three weeks to go before the general election, the state of play up and down the ballot remains remarkably stable across Texas. However, as races remain close, that stability could mask a lot of volatility within polls’ margins of errors and assumptions about who...
Oct 7, 2020 | Campaign News
Early voting may begin next week as ordered by Gov. Greg Abbott (R), ruled the Texas Supreme Court, essentially because the legal challenge to that order was filed too late. “Relators could have asserted their challenge at any time in the past ten weeks,” wrote Chief...
Oct 6, 2020 | Campaign Finance
Statewide and legislative candidates facing general election opposition reported raising nearly $27M since July 1. Democrats accounted for $12.4M of that figure, and Republican candidates raised $14.6M. Sixteen challengers out-raised their incumbent opponents for the...
Sep 20, 2020 | Senate Race Analyses
Just one of the now 17 state Senate districts on the ballot this year is competitive from a partisan perspective, and that’s largely because of the incumbent’s party. SD19 (Lean Democratic) sprawls across all or part of 17 counties from the east side of Bexar County...
Jul 19, 2020 | Campaign News
Texas Election Source has updated 27 race ratings based on the latest polling, July campaign finance reports and primary runoff results. Twenty of those races moved one column toward the Democrats’ advantage. Our complete ratings are located here. Thirteen...
Jul 16, 2020 | Campaign Finance
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) reported more cash on hand ($38.2M) than all of the Republican legislative incumbents and candidates on the 2020 general election ballot combined ($32.1M) and all of the Republican congressional incumbents and candidates on the 2020 general...
