Jul 5, 2021 | Campaign News
Reminder: I am away from the office this week and will be reporting the most significant headlines only. SD12: Sen. Jane Nelson (R-Flower Mound) announced she would not seek re-election. She was first elected in 1992. Rep. Jared Patterson (R-Frisco) is considering...
Nov 29, 2020 | Political Climate
For the second straight election cycle, a Democrat has won the very top race on the ballot in Tarrant Co. President-elect Joe Biden narrowly carried the county over President Trump, 49.3%-49.1%, a margin of just under 2K votes. Two years ago, former U.S. Rep. Beto...
Nov 8, 2020 | General Elections, House Race Analyses
This is the first in a series of periodic analyses of the 2020 general election. The signs pointed to further Democratic gains in the Texas House of Representatives. Entering Election Day, there were 83 Republican-held seats and 67 Democrat-held seats. Two years...
Nov 1, 2020 | House Race Analyses, Political Climate
Yesterday (Saturday), we posed two fundamental questions that will be answered Tuesday, or shortly thereafter. We gave our best guess on the first question, whether Joe Biden will become the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas since 1976 (No, but...
Oct 27, 2020 | breaking-news, Campaign Finance
The battle for the Texas House got expensive. Candidates in competitive seats collectively raised $39.3M during the past month, much of through in-kind contributions from a handful of sources. Republicans, bolstered by huge spending by Texans for Lawsuit Reform...
Oct 18, 2020 | Political Climate
Our latest model run moves the presidential race in Texas to Toss Up and projects a narrow Democratic majority in the Texas House when the Legislature convenes in January. Another four Republican-held House seats are within 2 percentage points of potentially adding to...
Oct 13, 2020 | Campaign News
Early voting has begun across Texas for the November 3 general election and continues through October 30. By most accounts, turnout is off to a torrid start. The Harris Co. Clerk’s office tweeted that 128K people voted in person today, plus 41K absentee ballots...
Oct 6, 2020 | Campaign Finance
Statewide and legislative candidates facing general election opposition reported raising nearly $27M since July 1. Democrats accounted for $12.4M of that figure, and Republican candidates raised $14.6M. Sixteen challengers out-raised their incumbent opponents for the...
Sep 9, 2020 | Campaign News
SD30 special (Safe Republican): The Texas Oil & Gas Assoc. PAC endorsed Rep. Drew Springe (R-Muenster). HD96 open (Toss Up): Gov. Greg Abbott (R) endorsed Republican nominee David Cook. HD138 open (Lean Democratic): The Texas State Teachers Assoc. endorsed...
Aug 15, 2020 | House Race Analyses
When former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) edged out U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 49.9%-49.2%, in Tarrant Co., he became the first Democrat to win countywide since 1994. Despite the narrow loss, Cruz won every Republican-held district in 2018. Some of them were very...
Aug 3, 2020 | Campaign News
Former President Barack Obama released his “first wave” of 2020 endorsements, which included 27 Texas House and U.S. House incumbents, challengers and open-seat candidates: House incumbents Erin Zwiener (HD45), James Talarico (HD52), Jessica González (HD104), Terry...
Jul 16, 2020 | Campaign Finance
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) reported more cash on hand ($38.2M) than all of the Republican legislative incumbents and candidates on the 2020 general election ballot combined ($32.1M) and all of the Republican congressional incumbents and candidates on the 2020 general...
