Endorsements, Ads and Other News for September 25

LTGOV: The National Rifle Assoc. PAC endorsed Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R). TLR Endorsements: Texas for Lawsuit Reform PAC endorsed six of the seven non-judicial statewide incumbents seeking re-election, excluding Agriculture Comm. Sid Miller (R). SD5: The Austin...

Identifying Districts Potentially in Play, Part 3

Today we continue our exploration of districts that may be in play in the general election by looking at the contribution totals of the candidates as of their July semiannual (state) and July quarterly (federal) campaign finance reports. Since 2004, 62 Texas...

Election News for July 21

Filing Deadline: Today was the deadline for independent candidates for state and federal offices to file their applications and signatures with the Secretary of State. Nearly 70 candidates filed declarations of intent by the December 2017 deadline. Historically, very...

Identifying Districts in Play This November, Part 1

Today we begin our exploration of districts that may be in play in the general election by examining a metric we call “relative performance factors,” which measure the partisan lean of a district relative to the state. Two dozen Texas congressional and...

State of Play for Open-seat Races

Last week, we explored how the success rate of open-seat primary candidates varied with how their contribution totals ranked among their rival candidates. In general, money has been a pretty good predictor of primary success since at least 2006, the first year of our...

Separation Seen in Some House Open-seat Races

January semiannual reports were due for state officeholders and candidates on Tuesday. They cover contributions received and expenditures made during the second half of 2017. For most primary challengers and open-seat candidates, they are the first window into their...

Candidate and Election News for November 29

Filing for a place on the 2018 continues until 6 p.m. local time on December 11. Please see our Crib Sheets for candidates’ filing status. GOV: Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D) is considering resigning her office as early as the end of next week in order to seek the...